Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials

Transkript

Erste Group Research
Credit Markets | Covered Bonds/Financials | Europe
11. May 2016
Credit Markets –Covered Bonds/Financials
Analysts:
Highlights
Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch
[email protected]
RBI: Q1 earnings and an ad-hoc release on RBI/RBZ merger plans
Yesterday evening Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) has issued an adhoc release stating that the management boards of Raiffeisen Zentralbank
Oesterreich (RZB) and RBI have come to a decision to evaluate a merger
of the two institutions. The objective of the merger is to simplify the
corporate structure and to adapt the group to increasing regulatory
requirements. As of now, no specific plans have been worked out yet. RBI's
target of achieving a CET1 ratio of 12% by 2017 is maintained. It was
moreover mentioned that this would be a downstream merger, i.e., the
parent company (RZB) would be acquired by its subsidiary (RBI). The bank
2 detailed plans, resp. the advantages
plans to release further information on
and drawbacks of the merger, as it becomes available. RBI posted
consolidated earnings of EUR 114 m. in Q1 2016, an increase of 37%
compared to the previous year. The main reason for the rise in earnings
was a 60% decline in loan loss provisions, though they are projected to
increase again over the remainder of7 the financial year.
Ralf Burchert, CEFA
[email protected]
Christian Enger, CFA
[email protected]
CONTENT
Highlights ................................................... 1
Topics of the Week
RBI: Q1 Ergebnis und Ad Hoc Meldung zu
RBI/RZB Merger......................................... 2
BIG posts solid 2015 annual result ............. 4
České Dráhy: Moody's upgrade to
Baa2/stable ................................................ 6
Primary Market
Financials ................................................... 7
Covered Bonds .......................................... 8
New Issues – EUR Benchmark Format .... 10
Maturities ................................................. 11
Secondary Market
Covered Bond Asset-Swap-Spreads ........ 12
Covered Bond Country Comparison (AT,
FR, GE, NL, SW, ES, UK) ........................ 13
Spread Comparison ................................. 20
Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies (SSA) - Austria
Additional Information
Rating Changes ....................................... 23
Calendar: Earnings Releases ................... 24
Recent Publications ................................. 25
Disclaimer
Major Markets & Credit Research
Gudrun Egger, CEFA(Head)
[email protected]
Historical performance is no indicator for
Performance!
BIG posts solid 2015 annual result
As was already evident in the half-year report, BIG had to report a slight
decline in net earnings for FY 2015 (net profit -4% to EUR 402 m.), in spite
of a moderate improvement in revenues
(+6% to EUR 991 m.) and EBITDA
12
(+6% to EUR 623 m.). A once again “normalized” revaluation result has put
an end to the positive trend in earnings that has been in place since 2012.
This has however not stopped favorable cash flow performance from
continuing. With nearly unchanged net debt of EUR 3.8 bn., all credit
metrics could be improved. Around21
EUR 150 m. of the total volume of EUR
23
2.3 bn. in outstanding bonds is maturing
in 2016, and in view of an
ambitious residential construction program, fresh supply should be
expected. While BIG is in the meantime issuing bonds without an explicit
federal guarantee, its sovereign tasks as the federal government's real
estate company are imbuing it with 27
an Aaa status such as that enjoyed by
the Republic according to Moody's.
České Dráhy: Moody's upgrade to Baa2
Following the release of the 2015 annual report and in view of the pending
issue of an EUR-denominated bond, Moody's has reviewed its credit rating
of České Dráhy (Baa2/ stable) and upgraded the Czech national railway
company by one notch to Baa2.
Erste Group Research – Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials
Page 1
11. May 2016
Topics of the Week
Analyst:
Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch
[email protected]
Simplification of corporate
structure and regulatory
requirements are the reason for
the merger
No specific plans have been
worked out yet – a CET1 ratio of
12% in 2017 remains a target
Downstream merger considered
Integration of investments in
the consolidation not yet clear
RBI: Q1 Ergebnis und Ad Hoc Meldung zu RBI/RZB Merger
Yesterday evening Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) has issued an ad-hoc
release stating that the management boards of Raiffeisen Zentralbank
Oesterreich (RZB) and RBI have come to a decision to evaluate a merger
between the two institutions. The objective of the merger is to simplify the
corporate structure and to adapt the group to increasing regulatory
requirements. In the course of today's early presentation of the group's Q1
2016 results, statements on the planned merger were made as well. The
board stresses in this context that there is merely the decision to pursue a
merger at the current juncture, but no detailed plans or calculations have
been made yet. These are to be worked out over the coming 6 months. The
merger will likely be implemented in H1 2017. RBI's target of achieving a
CET1 ratio of 12% by 2012 will be maintained. However, a reassessment
is possible in the course of combining the groups. It was furthermore
mentioned that this will be a downstream merger, i.e., the subsidiary RBI will
acquire its parent company RZB. Apart from its function as the Raiffeisen
sector's leading institution which fulfills management and services tasks,
RZB also has the function of an investment holding company. Among its
participatory interests are both bank-type and other corporate investments,
of which a 31.5% stake in UNIQA Insurance Group is worth highlighting. At
present the integration of these investments in the context of the
consolidation remains unclear as well. The bank intends to release
information on detailed plans, resp. the advantages and drawbacks of the
merger as it becomes available.
Selected data and key ratios (IFRS, in EUR m.)
Incom e Statem ent
Net interest income
Net provisions
Net fee & commission income
Trading result
other income
Total incom e
Personnel expenses
Material expenses
Other operativ expenses
General adm inistrative expenses
Operating result
Pre-tax profit
Net profit
Key figures
Net Interest Margin
CIR
RoE
NPL Ratio
CET 1 Ratio (fully loaded) *)
Q1 2015
820
-260
360
-62
84
942
-345
-306
-103
-754
188
188
83
Change
% (yoy)
-12.4%
-59.2%
-3.6%
-88.1%
5.8%
0.6%
-3.6%
20.4%
1.6%
21.8%
21.8%
37.3%
Q1 2015 /
Q1 2016
YE 2015
2.7%
2.9%
65.0%
61.8%
7.8%
6.6%
11.4%
11.9%
11.5%
11.5%
Change
% (yoy)
-7.1%
5.2%
18.2%
-4.2%
0.0%
Q1 2016
718
-106
347
28
10
997
-347
-295
-124
-766
229
229
114
Source: RBI, Erste Group Research
Page 2
11. May 2016
Q1 2016 consolidated earnings
of EUR 114 m.
Both net interest income as well
as commission income
decreased
Decline of net interest margin to
2.73%
CET1 ratio (fully loaded)
unchanged at 11,5%
RBI posted consolidated earnings of EUR 114 m. in Q1 2016, an increase of
37% compared to the previous year. The main reason for the increase in
earnings was a 60% decline in loan loss provisions, although they are
projected to increase again over the remainder of the financial year. In
addition, a negative trading results was reported last year due to foreign
currency positions in Ukraine and hedges on foreign currency dividends.
Both net interest income (-12.4% to EUR 718 m.) and commission income (3.4% to EUR 347 m.) declined; the decline in net interest income was not
only attributable to a reduction in lending volumes (-7%), but primarily also to
a decrease in the net interest margin (by -20 bps to 2.73%). The trading
result improved by EUR 90 m. to EUR 28 m. The increase is attributable to
the strong devaluation of Ukraine's currency in the previous year.
Rising administrative expenses were primarily due to contributions to the
bank resolution fund (+EUR 35 m.), which according to IFRS regulations
have to be recognized in the first quarter for the full FY 2016. This resulted
in an increase in the cost-income ratio (CIR) to 65%. RBI continues to
expect that its medium term objective of a CIR between 50% to 55% can be
achieved (mainly by selling its Polish subsidiary). The CET1 ratio (fully
loaded) could be maintained at an unchanged 11.5%.
Page 3
11. May 2016
Analyst:
Ralf Burchert, CEFA
[email protected]
BIG posts solid 2015 annual result
BIG Group
(UGB, IFRS as of 2012, EUR m , 31/12)
2011
2012*
2013
2014
2015
Revenues
826
872
946
938
991
EBITDA
459
457
577
586
623
EBIT
261
528
607
641
613
95
293
358
419
402
Equity
1,126
5,388
5,697
6,022
6,381
Net debt
3,836
3,828
3,853
3,779
3,780
Net earnings after min.
Equity ratio
Gearing
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
20%
48%
51%
51%
53%
341%
71%
68%
63%
59%
8.4x
8.4x
6.7x
6.4x
6.1x
EBITDA/Interest expense (x)
3.5x
3.5x
4.3x
4.9x
*) IFRS as of 2012, Source: Bundesimmobiliengesellschaft, Erste Group Research
5.3x
2015: revenues +6%,
EBITDA +6%
Bundesimmobiliengesellschaft (BIG, Aaa/ negative) posted a better 2015
annual result than expected following the ´omen´ of the half-year report (see
also Erste Covered Bonds/ Financials Weekly of 02.09.2015). The
consolidated 2015 result included revenue growth of +6% to EUR 991 m.
and EBITDA growth of +6% to EUR 623 m., as a strong increase in costs for
personnel (+8%) and materials (+11%) was absorbed quite well. The
maintenance ratio was barely changed at 17.6%. The result was not only
supported by a 3% increase in rental income to EUR 795 m., but also by
higher proceeds from project development companies (EUR +16 m. to EUR
26 m.), resp. proceeds from rent concessions (EUR 12 m.).
Net earnings -4%
A return to a “normalized” revaluation result of EUR -7 m. after EUR +59 m.
(2014) was primarily responsible for ending the positive trend in earnings
growth that has been in place since 2012. EBIT of EUR 613 m. stood 4%
below the 2014 figure. As expected, the financial result (EUR -111 m. after
EUR -116 m.) benefited from the favorable interest rate environment, while
the tax burden was little changed. Overall, net earnings declined slightly by 4% to EUR 402 m. The recommended dividend payment to the federal
government as the 100% owner was raised from EUR 70 m. to EUR 104 m.
Positive cash flow trends
The trend in cash flows continued to be positive. Operating cash flow of
EUR 471 m. stood significantly above the previous year's EUR 425 m., even
if shifts in due dates for rental payments have repeatedly resulted in one-off
effects and showed up as positive effects in cash flow from working capital
(EUR +27 m. after EUR -21 m.). Investment of EUR 377 m. declined
moderately though, affecting investment cash flows commensurately, which
stood at EUR 310 m. after EUR 337 m. However, as a result of the
residential construction initiative of group company Austrian Real Estate
(ARE), we expect that significantly higher levels will be recorded in coming
years again.
Credit ratios improve across
the board
With net debt nearly unchanged at EUR 3.8 bn., all credit metrics could be
improved further. Thus the ratio of net debt/ EBITDA has declined from 6.4x
to 6.1x and loan-to-value from 32% to approx. 30%. Balance sheet ratios
have strengthened further, with the equity ratio at 53% and gearing at 59%.
The planned increase in investment activity will however cap further
improvements in our view.
Page 4
11. May 2016
Outlook: growth in residential
construction
Strong growth is planned in coming years, which is already visible in the
increasing number of consolidated companies. In 2015 19 new companies
were founded overall, the number of fully consolidated enterprises has risen
from 24 to 35, that of companies accounted for at equity from 18 to 26. The
main focus of the expansion will be subsidiary ARE, which currently
manages EUR 2.3 bn. (fair value as of 31.12.2015) in real estate assets,
mainly comprised of office, commercial and development properties. The
from now on substantially intensified residential construction activities are
pooled in ARE as well. Until 2020 a total of EUR 2.0 bn. is to be invested in
residential construction, i.e. an average of around EUR 400 m. per year, for
the erection of 6,000 rental apartments and 4,000 condominiums, in order to
ease the tense situation in Austria's housing market. Currently around 78%
of the group's real estate assets are still managed by the BIG parent group,
particularly properties rented out to the federal government. The group's
individual financial statement (UGB/ Austrian corporate code) showed
revenue growth of 3% to EUR 760 m. in 2015 and an increase in net
earnings by 14% to EUR 189 m.
Primary market supply in the
framework of an EMTN
program
The BIG Group currently finances the majority of its financial liabilities (EUR
3.8 bn. as of year-end 2015) through the capital markets via an EMTN
program (private placements, bond issues) with a scope of EUR 4.0 bn. As
of year-end 2015 around 55% were financed through bonds, 23% through
bank loans and around 22% through the money markets (commercial
paper). The remaining term to maturity of the group's bonds amounted to an
average of 7.5 years, with 70% having fixed coupons. A total issuance
volume of EUR 2.1 bn. is currently outstanding, including foreign currencydenominated bonds, 38% in CHF and 15% in JPY, all of which are fully
hedged against foreign exchange risk. In 2016 the equivalent of EUR 150 m.
is maturing, and in view of the ambitious residential construction investment
program, fresh primary market supply has to be expected. While BIG is
issuing bonds without an explicit federal guarantee, its sovereign tasks as
the federal government's real estate company (mainly schools, universities,
official buildings), which generate 95% of its revenues, are imbuing it with an
Aaa status such as that enjoyed by the Republic according to Moody's.
Maturity profile of BIG
EUR million
Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 5
11. May 2016
Analyst:
Ralf Burchert, CEFA
[email protected]
“Provisional” Baa2 rating
ahead of an EUR-denominated
bond issue
České Dráhy: Moody's upgrade to Baa2/stable
Following the release of ČD's 2015 annual report (see also Erste Covered
Bonds/ Financials Weekly of 04.05.2016) and in view of a pending EURdenominated bond issue, Moody's has reviewed its credit rating of České
Dráhy (Baa2/ stable) and upgraded the Czech national railway company by
one notch to Baa2 (“provisional”) with a stable outlook. The agency justifies
the stronger rating by citing an improvement in the structural performance of
the group's operating business, as well as its debt levels, which should
remain stable over a two-year horizon. In addition, the liquidity position has
improved, which is also aimed at the apparently imminent EUR-denominated
bond issue.
Rating history of České Dráhy
Source: Moody´s, Erste Group Research
Stronger baseline credit
assessment
The upgrade is in line with a stronger baseline credit assessment (BCA),
which has been improved from ba3 to ba2. With respect to the trend in the
adjusted debt/ EBITDA ratio, a target range of 4.5x to 5.0x is expected in the
time period until 2018. Capital expenditure is estimated to be in a range of
CZK 5 to 6 bn. (equivalent to approx. EUR 200 m.). Important arguments in
favor of the baseline assessment are ČD's quasi-monopoly role as the
national railway company, the importance of the passenger transport
business, with the risk that long-term contracts with the Republic and the 14
regional authorities won't be extended after 2019 seen as small, as well as
improvements at freight transport subsidiary ČD Cargo. The Czech
Republic's A1 rating is supportive as well. The stable outlook for the rating
has been maintained. The underlying assumptions are that operating trends
will remain stable over the coming 18 to 24 months, and that it will be
possible to renew most long term contracts.
EUR 300 m. redemption in June
The volume of EUR 800 m. in currently outstanding bonds (apart from
private placements) by the two group companies ČD a.s. and the 100%
subsidiary ČD Cargo has only relatively short remaining terms to maturity
until 2018 and consists of three placements by ČD a.s. and two by ČD
Cargo. Among the three redemptions coming due in 2016 is a EUR 300 m.
bond maturing in June of 2016, which is supposed to be refinanced shortly.
Page 6
11. May 2016
Primary Market
Financials
Financials: New issues in EUR broken down by debt type
2014-2016 YTD
Monthly data since 01/2014
60.000
Banks
Sub;
10,0%
GGB;
2,7%
50.000
Covered;
44,8%
in EUR m
40.000
Banks
Senior;
42,4%
30.000
20.000
10.000
04/2016
05/2016
03/2016
02/2016
01/2016
12/2015
11/2015
10/2015
09/2015
08/2015
07/2015
05/2016
Banks Senior
06/2015
05/2015
04/2015
03/2015
02/2015
01/2015
12/2014
11/2014
Covered
04/2016
GGB
10/2014
09/2014
08/2014
07/2014
06/2014
05/2014
04/2014
03/2014
02/2014
01/2014
0
Banks Sub
Source: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Financials: New issues in EUR broken down by country
2014-2016 YTD
60.000
Other;
18,0%
Australia; Austria;
1,5%
2,5%
50.000
Britain;
7,9%
40.000
Switzerland; 4,4%
Finland;
2,4%
France;
17,6%
Sweden;
4,7%
in EUR m
Denmark;
1,9%
30.000
20.000
10.000
Spain;
8,4%
Benelux
France
Germany
Nordics
Italy & Iberia
UK & Ireland
03/2016
02/2016
01/2016
12/2015
11/2015
10/2015
09/2015
08/2015
07/2015
06/2015
05/2015
04/2015
03/2015
02/2015
01/2015
12/2014
11/2014
10/2014
09/2014
08/2014
07/2014
06/2014
05/2014
04/2014
03/2014
02/2014
lands; Italy; 6,5%Ireland;
1,4%
7,1%
0
Germany;
13,0%
01/2014
Norway;
2,6%
Nether-
Other
Page 7
11. May 2016
Covered Bonds
Covered Bonds: Monthly comparison of new issues in EUR
2014-2016 YTD
30.000
Nov;
13.442
Dec; 3.017
25.000
Jan;
19.985
Feb; 7.472
Mar;
10.375
in EUR m
20.000
Oct;
13.267
15.000
10.000
Sep;
16.308
Aug; 4.058
Jul; 9.667
Apr;
10.200
May; 5.358
Jun; 9.267
5.000
0
Mar
Apr
May
2014
Jun
2015
Jul
Aug
2016
10Y median
04/2015
Feb
02/2015
Jan
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Covered Bonds: New issues in EUR broken down by type
2014-2016 YTD
30.000
Canada
Covered;
10,3%
25.000
France
Covered
Legal; 7,4%
Benelux Covered
France Covered
Germany Covered
05/2016
04/2016
03/2016
02/2016
01/2016
12/2015
11/2015
10/2015
09/2015
08/2015
07/2015
06/2015
05/2015
03/2015
01/2015
12/2014
11/2014
10/2014
09/2014
08/2014
07/2014
0
06/2014
Ireland
Netherlands ItalyCovered;
Covered; Covered;1,7%
6,5%
2,9%
5.000
05/2014
Norway
Covered;
4,5%
10.000
04/2014
Hypotheken
pfandbriefe;
13,3%
15.000
03/2014
France
Covered
SFH; 8,8%
Single
Cedulas;
10,1%
Portugal
Covered;
1,1%
20.000
02/2014
Sweden
Covered;
5,4%
Oeffentliche
Pfandbriefe;
4,5%
Austria
Covered;
2,8%
01/2014
Other
Covered;
15,0%
in EUR m
UK Covered;
5,7%
Nordic Covered
Italy & Iberia Covered UK & Ireland Covered Other Covered
Source: iBoxx, Bond Radar, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 8
11. May 2016
Covered Bonds: New issues in EUR broken down by investor type
2014-2016 YTD
Annual data since 01/2014
45%
40%
Retail andOther
InsuranceCorporates;
Investors;
and Pension 1%
1%
Funds; 7%
Asset
Manager;
28%
Central
Banks and
Agencies;
27%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Banks; 36%
0%
Asset Manager
Banks
Central Banks and
Agencies
2014
2015
Insurance and
Pension Funds
Retail and
Corporates
Other Investors
2016
Covered Bonds: New issues in EUR broken down by investors’ location
2014-2016 YTD
Annual data since 01/2014
60%
50%
Asia; 4%
Benelux;
7%
CEE; 1%
France; 8%
Nordic
Countries;
8%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Italy; 4%
2014
2015
Other Regions
UK and Ireland
Switzerland
Spain and Portugal
North America
Nordic Countries
Middle East
Italy
Germany and Austria
Germany
and Austria;
51%
France
CEE
Asia
0%
Benelux
UK and
Other
Ireland; 8% Regions;
Switzerland;
4%
3%
Spain and
Portugal;
3%
2016
Page 9
11. May 2016
New Issues – EUR Benchmark Format
ISIN
Issuer
XS1405801041 ITALY GOV'T INT BOND
XS1408351887 KOMMUNEKREDIT
DE000NRW0JJ8 LAND NORDRHEINWESTFALEN
XS1408380803 OP MORTGAGE BANK
DE000LB09PR3 LB BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG
DE000NWB0584
BE0002251206
BE0000339482
BE0000340498
XS1405136364
FR0013020450
FR0012143451
XS1404902535
XS1403499848
EU000A1U9969
XS1402921412
FR0013162302
XS1402175811
XS1402235060
ES0413495013
BE6286238561
XS1401105587
DE000HSH5Y29
DE000A1YCQK7
DE000A11QTD2
IT0005177909
XS1400626690
DE000A13SWH9
XS1400169931
Type
Sovereign
04.05.2016
Agency
04.05.2016
Muni/Local Gov't 04.05.2016
Tap Volume Cur- Coupon Coupon
(in m) rency
Type
Maturity
Issue Rating
S&P/Moody's/
Fitch
Current
Issue
Book
Spread Spread Volume
(ASW) (Mid) (ASW)
(in m)
N
N
N
636 EUR
500 EUR
1.000 EUR
1,483
0,625
1,250
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
04.05.2046
11.05.2026
12.05.2036
NR/NR/NR
NR/Aaae/NR
NR/Aa1e/AAAe
244
4
16
6
17
1.600
03.05.2016
03.05.2016
N
N
1.250 EUR
750 EUR
0,250
0,050
FIXED
FIXED
11.05.2023
11.11.2021
NR/Aaae/NR
NR/Aaae/NR
2
-6
4
-4
3.000
2.000
03.05.2016
28.04.2016
28.04.2016
28.04.2016
28.04.2016
27.04.2016
27.04.2016
27.04.2016
26.04.2016
N
N
N
N
N
Y
Y
N
N
1.000
500
3.000
3.000
500
750
500
750
750
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
0,500
3,125
0,200
2,150
5,625
1,250
0,875
4,250
2,750
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
VARIABLE
FIXED
11.05.2026
11.05.2026
22.10.2023
22.06.2066
06.05.2026
21.10.2027
25.10.2022
05.05.2026
04.05.2026
NR/NR/AAA
BBB-/NR/NR
NR/Aa3e/AA
NR/Aa3e/AA
B+/B1/NR
AA/Aa2/AA
AA/Aa1/AA+
BB/Ba2/BBBBBB/Baa2/BBB-
-4
240
-12
101
510
8
-5
425
209
-2
255
-13
215
2.100
6.300
900
130
-
26.04.2016
N
3.000 EUR
1,125
FIXED
03.05.2032
NR/Aa1e/AAA
4
7
-
25.04.2016
25.04.2016
N
N
1.500 EUR
1.000 EUR
1,500
0,500
FIXED
FIXED
29.10.2026
04.09.2024
A-/A3/A+
AAA/Aaa/AA
84
6
88
9
1.700
22.04.2016
N
1.250 EUR
0,500
FIXED
29.10.2019
A/A1/A
64
63
2.700
22.04.2016
N
1.500 EUR
0,449
FLOATING 29.04.2019
BBB+/A3/Ae
70
70
1.900
20.04.2016
N
500 EUR
0,125
FIXED
03.05.2019
NR/(P)Aa2/NR
22
30
-
20.04.2016
20.04.2016
20.04.2016
N
N
N
750 EUR
1.000 EUR
500 EUR
1,000
0,375
0,375
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
26.04.2021
27.04.2023
27.04.2023
BBB+/Baa1/ANR/Aaa/NR
NR/Aa3/NR
83
10
20
112
17
23
7.750
3.000
800
20.04.2016
N
750 EUR
0,500
FIXED
27.04.2026
NR/NR/AAA
-4
-1
1.300
19.04.2016
19.04.2016
19.04.2016
Y
N
N
1.000 EUR
6.500 EUR
1.250 EUR
0,625
2,250
6,625
FIXED
15.01.2025
FIXED
01.09.2036
VARIABLE 29.12.2049
AAA/Aaa/AAA
NR/Baa2u/BBB+
NR/Baa3/BBB-
-19
124
640
-
18.900
6.500
19.04.2016
N
500 EUR
1,125
FIXED
27.04.2020
BBB/NR/NR
80
125
1.600
Banks Senior
18.04.2016
N
2.000 EUR
1,375
FIXED
26.10.2026
A/A2/AA-
75
88
4.100
Banks Senior
18.04.2016
N
1.500 EUR
0,371
FLOATING 26.04.2021
A/A2/AA-
62
62
2.400
Supra
UK Covered
Agency
Financial
Financial
18.04.2016
14.04.2016
13.04.2016
13.04.2016
13.04.2016
N
N
N
N
N
600
500
1.000
750
750
0,250
0,125
0,625
1,375
0,000
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
NR/Aa1e/NR
NR/Aaa/AAA
AAA/Aaa/NR
AA/Aa3/AAAA/Aa3/AA-
1
17
6
36
12
8
27
9
50
18
1.100
1.300
1.400
2.600
2.500
Finland Covered
Hypothekenpfandbriefe
NRW.BANK
Agency
BELFIUS BANK SA/NV
Banks Tier2
BELGIUM KINGDOM
Sovereign
BELGIUM KINGDOM
Sovereign
BANCO DE SABADELL SA Banks Tier2
UNEDIC
Agency
UNEDIC
Agency
UNIONE DI BANCHE ITALIAN Banks Tier2
LIBERTY MUTUAL GROUP Financial
INC
EURO STABILITY
Supra
MECHANISM
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Banks Senior
CIE FINANCEMENT FONCIER France Covered
Legal
NATIONWIDE BLDG
Banks Senior
SOCIETY
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP Banks Senior
INC
SANTAN CONSUMER
Financial
FINANCE
KBC GROEP NV
Banks Senior
TORONTO-DOMINION BANK Canada Covered
HSH NORDBANK AG
FREIE HANSESTADT
Muni/Local Gov't
HAMBURG
KFW
Agency
BUONI POLIENNALI DEL TES Sovereign
COOPERATIEVE
Banks Tier1
RABOBANK UA
DEUT PFANDBRIEFBANK AG Banks Senior
WELLS FARGO &
COMPANY
XS1400169428 WELLS FARGO &
COMPANY
XS1400224546 EUROFIMA
XS1398337086 LEEDS BUILDING SOCIETY
XS1397023448 KOMMUNALBANKEN AS
DE000A180B80 ALLIANZ FINANCE II B.V.
DE000A180B72 ALLIANZ FINANCE II B.V.
Launch
Date
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
25.04.2023
21.04.2020
20.04.2026
21.04.2031
21.04.2020
Page 10
11. May 2016
Maturities
Financials: EUR bonds maturities broken down by debt type
350.000
300.000
in EUR m
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
GGB
Covered
Banks Senior
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
0
Banks Sub
Covered Bonds: EUR bonds maturities broken down by covered type
35.000
30.000
25.000
in EUR m
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
Benelux Covered
France Covered
Germany Covered
Nordic Covered
Italy & Iberia Covered
UK & Ireland Covered
05/2019
04/2019
03/2019
02/2019
01/2019
12/2018
11/2018
10/2018
09/2018
08/2018
07/2018
06/2018
05/2018
04/2018
03/2018
02/2018
01/2018
12/2017
11/2017
10/2017
09/2017
08/2017
07/2017
06/2017
05/2017
04/2017
03/2017
02/2017
01/2017
12/2016
11/2016
10/2016
09/2016
08/2016
07/2016
06/2016
05/2016
0
Other Covered
Page 11
11. May 2016
Secondary Market
Covered Bond Asset-Swap-Spreads
200
150
100
50
0
iBoxx € Austria Covered
iBoxx € France Covered Legal
iBoxx € France Covered SFH
iBoxx € Hypothekenpfandbriefe
iBoxx € Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
iBoxx € Netherlands Covered
iBoxx € Norway Covered
iBoxx € Sweden Covered
03/2016
12/2015
09/2015
06/2015
03/2015
12/2014
09/2014
06/2014
03/2014
12/2013
09/2013
06/2013
03/2013
12/2012
09/2012
06/2012
03/2012
12/2011
09/2011
06/2011
03/2011
12/2010
-50
iBoxx € Canada Covered
iBoxx € Ireland Covered
iBoxx € Italy Covered
iBoxx € Portugal Covered
iBoxx € Spain Covered Single Cedulas
iBoxx € Spain Covered Pooled Cedulas
iBoxx € UK Covered
iBoxx € US Covered
03/2016
12/2015
09/2015
06/2015
03/2015
12/2014
09/2014
06/2014
03/2014
12/2013
09/2013
06/2013
03/2013
12/2012
09/2012
06/2012
03/2012
12/2011
09/2011
06/2011
03/2011
12/2010
1.000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 12
11. May 2016
Covered Bond Country Comparison (AT, FR, GE, NL, SW, ES, UK)
Austria
iBoxx spread performance (ASW in bp)
Spread curve (iBoxx constituents; ASW in bp)
250
60
50
200
40
30
150
20
10
100
0
-10
50
-20
0
-30
iBoxx € Austria Covered
12/2026
06/2026
12/2025
06/2025
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
Poly. (Austria Covered)
EUR bonds – production and redemption
EUR benchmark issuers (iBoxx constituents)
7.000
6.000
6.000
5.000
5.000
in EUR m
4.000
4.000
in EUR m
12/2022
Poly. (iBoxx € Covered)
Austria Covered
iBoxx € Covered
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
06/2015
09/2015
12/2015
03/2016
06/2017
12/2016
-40
-50
3.000
3.000
2.000
2.000
1.000
1.000
Austria Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
VORHYP
RFLBST
RFLBNI
LANTIR
KAFIN
HYNOE
ERSTBK
BAWAG
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Austria Covered - Redemption
BACA
0
0
Other/Mixed
Source: iBoxx, BondRadar, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 13
11. May 2016
France
60
250
50
200
40
30
150
20
10
100
0
50
-10
-20
0
-30
-40
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
06/2015
09/2015
12/2015
03/2016
12/2016
05/2017
10/2017
03/2018
08/2018
01/2019
06/2019
11/2019
04/2020
09/2020
02/2021
07/2021
12/2021
05/2022
10/2022
03/2023
08/2023
01/2024
06/2024
11/2024
04/2025
09/2025
02/2026
07/2026
12/2026
-50
iBoxx € Covered
iBoxx € France Covered Legal
iBoxx € France Covered SFH
France Covered Legal
France Covered SFH
Poly. (France Covered Legal)
Poly. (France Covered SFH)
60.000
40.000
35.000
50.000
30.000
in EUR m
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
20.000
10.000
10.000
5.000
France Covered - Production
Public
SOCSFH
LBPSFH
SOCSCF
CRH
HSBC
CMARK
CMCICB
CFF
CIFEUR
CAFFIL
BPCOV
BNPSCF
Mortgage
BPCECB
AXASA
BNPPCB
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
France Covered - Redemption
ACACB
0
0
ACASCF
in EUR m
40.000
Other/Mixed
Page 14
11. May 2016
Germany
60
250
50
40
200
30
150
20
10
100
0
-10
50
-20
-30
0
12/2016
05/2017
10/2017
03/2018
08/2018
01/2019
06/2019
11/2019
04/2020
09/2020
02/2021
07/2021
12/2021
05/2022
10/2022
03/2023
08/2023
01/2024
06/2024
11/2024
04/2025
09/2025
02/2026
07/2026
12/2026
-40
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
06/2015
09/2015
12/2015
03/2016
-50
iBoxx € Covered
iBoxx € Hypothekenpfandbriefe
iBoxx € Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
Poly. (Hypothekenpfandbriefe)
Poly. (Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe)
80.000
14.000
70.000
12.000
60.000
10.000
in EUR m
50.000
in EUR m
40.000
8.000
6.000
30.000
4.000
20.000
2.000
10.000
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Germany Covered - Redemption
Germany Covered - Production
AARB
BHH
BYLAN
CMZB
DAA
DB
DEXGRP
DGHYP
DHY
DKRED
DPB
HASPA
HESLAN
HSHN
HVB
HYPFRA
INGDIB
LBBW
MUNHYP
NDB
PBBGR
SPKKB
WLBANK
0
0
Mortgage
Public
Other/Mixed
Page 15
11. May 2016
Netherlands
60
250
50
40
200
30
150
20
10
100
0
-10
50
-20
0
-30
iBoxx € Netherlands Covered
12/2026
06/2026
12/2025
06/2025
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
Netherlands Covered
iBoxx € Covered
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
12/2016
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
06/2015
09/2015
12/2015
03/2016
06/2017
-40
-50
Poly. (Netherlands Covered)
12.000
20.000
18.000
10.000
16.000
14.000
in EUR m
in EUR m
8.000
6.000
4.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
2.000
Netherlands Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
SNSBNK
NIBCAP
LANSNA
INTNED
AEGON
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Netherlands Covered - Redemption
ABNANV
0
0
Other/Mixed
Page 16
11. May 2016
Sweden
60
250
50
40
200
30
20
150
10
100
0
-10
50
-20
0
-30
iBoxx € Norway Covered
iBoxx € Sweden Covered
Norway Covered
Sweden Covered
Poly. (Norway Covered)
12/2026
06/2026
12/2025
06/2025
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
06/2015
09/2015
12/2015
03/2016
iBoxx € Covered
06/2017
12/2016
-40
-50
Poly. (Sweden Covered)
14.000
18.000
12.000
16.000
14.000
10.000
in EUR m
12.000
6.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
4.000
2.000
2.000
Sweden Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
SWEDA
SHBASS
SEB
SBAB
LANSBK
SVEGNO
SRBANK
SPABOL
PLUSSB
EIKBOL
DNBNO
SAMBNK
OPBANK
NDASS
AKTIA
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Sweden Covered - Redemption
DANBNK
0
0
BRF
in EUR m
8.000
Other/Mixed
Page 17
11. May 2016
Spain
160
700
140
600
120
100
500
80
400
60
300
40
20
200
Poly. (Pooled Cedulas)
iBoxx € Spain Covered Pooled Cedulas
Poly. (Single Cedulas)
12/2025
12/2026
Single Cedulas
06/2026
Pooled Cedulas
iBoxx € Spain Covered Single Cedulas
SANTAN
iBoxx € Covered
SABSM
06/2025
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
06/2015
09/2015
12/2015
03/2016
06/2018
-40
12/2017
0
12/2016
-20
06/2017
0
100
60.000
16.000
14.000
50.000
12.000
in EUR m
30.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
20.000
4.000
10.000
2.000
Spain Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
POPSM
NOVAGA
KUTXAB
DB
CRUNAV
CAJARU
CAJARC
CAIXAC
CABKSM
BMARE
BKTSM
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Spain Covered - Redemption
BKIASM
0
0
BBVASM
in EUR m
40.000
Other/Mixed
Page 18
11. May 2016
UK
60
250
50
200
40
30
150
20
100
10
0
50
-10
0
-20
-30
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
06/2015
09/2015
12/2015
03/2016
-50
iBoxx € Covered
iBoxx € UK Covered
UK Covered
12/2026
06/2026
12/2025
06/2025
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
06/2017
12/2016
-40
Poly. (UK Covered)
25.000
18.000
16.000
20.000
14.000
in EUR m
12.000
in EUR m
15.000
10.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
5.000
2.000
UK Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
YBS
RBS
NWIDE
LLOYDS
LEED
COVBS
BACR
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
UK Covered - Redemption
ABBEY
0
0
Other/Mixed
Page 19
11. May 2016
Spread Comparison
Country
Type
AUSTRALIA
Australia Covered
Banks Senior
AUSTRIA
Sovereign
Austria Covered
Banks Senior
BELGIUM
Sovereign
Belgium Covered
Banks Senior
CANADA
Sovereign
Canada Covered
Banks Senior
1-3Y
3-5Y
5-7Y
7-10Y
>10Y
Total
4,4
11,6
17,1
21,8
31,5
23,8
36,7
60,6
-
-
15,8
38,4
-31,5
-28,6
-26,2
-16,4
14,5
-12,1
9,8
16,0
16,1
16,0
22,0
15,5
82,4
72,4
-
-
-
79,1
-33,9
-27,7
-22,4
-8,5
28,4
-1,7
1,4
3,5
6,4
10,4
-
4,8
20,5
82,6
-
-
-
41,2
-20,7
-
-20,7
-
-
-
1,2
5,5
9,0
-
-
5,1
-
42,3
-
-
-
42,3
COLOMBIA
Sovereign
-
-
-
296,6
-
296,6
CZECH REPUBLIC
Sovereign
3,2
-2,2
11,5
-
-
2,6
DENMARK
Denm ark Covered
-2,8
3,0
4,6
-
-
2,8
-
48,1
41,7
-
-
46,0
-19,1
Banks Senior
FINLAND
FRANCE
GERMANY
Sovereign
-33,3
-26,5
-20,2
-13,3
-6,9
Finland Covered
-3,8
-2,3
1,7
1,3
4,8
-1,5
Banks Senior
17,4
55,1
41,9
-
-
37,7
-5,0
Sovereign
-29,4
-23,9
-20,4
-12,0
33,3
France Covered Legal
-3,3
-3,2
0,2
4,4
35,7
1,2
France Covered SFH
-3,8
-5,0
-2,5
0,8
11,7
-2,4
France Covered Structured
-3,5
-
-
-
-
-3,5
Banks Senior
26,5
37,3
70,5
59,7
-
46,2
Sovereign
-37,3
-40,6
-42,5
-43,1
-43,2
-41,0
-1,9
-5,6
-3,1
-5,6
2,5
-3,7
Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
-3,1
-1,6
-7,0
-6,5
21,3
-2,9
Other Pfandbriefe
27,9
-
-
-
-
27,9
Banks Senior
IRELAND
ITALY
NETHERLANDS
NEW ZEALAND
44,9
59,5
84,6
86,7
173,2
66,9
-20,1
-1,6
22,3
44,4
54,8
19,3
Ireland Covered
11,2
16,0
22,9
-
-
15,8
Banks Senior
61,6
91,1
-
-
-
71,4
Sovereign
11,5
31,5
62,0
100,6
147,8
74,2
Italy Covered
13,5
15,9
27,2
42,5
-
26,2
Banks Senior
50,3
84,6
115,7
125,9
-
77,8
-33,9
-35,1
-30,6
-24,3
-19,7
-28,0
Sovereign
Sovereign
Netherlands Covered
-2,2
-3,7
0,2
-1,9
15,8
-0,6
Banks Senior
36,9
44,2
64,1
57,3
57,4
47,5
New Zealand Covered
7,8
14,4
18,6
-
-
11,2
27,7
-
-
-
-
27,7
2,4
6,5
10,0
-
-
6,5
Banks Senior
55,0
60,4
51,5
-
-
56,7
POLAND
Sovereign
16,6
26,3
52,4
84,3
84,6
57,6
PORTUGAL
Portugal Covered
29,3
26,4
53,8
-
-
31,6
ROMANIA
Sovereign
24,5
68,7
-
192,2
262,9
143,1
SINGAPORE
Singapore Covered
-
18,3
-
-
-
18,3
SLOVAKIA
Sovereign
-15,3
-10,9
-9,2
-0,1
29,6
5,8
SLOVENIA
Sovereign
5,1
25,9
45,0
83,4
105,3
49,9
SPAIN
Sovereign
Banks Senior
NORWAY
SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
TURKEY
Norw ay Covered
8,4
36,8
63,9
101,1
170,0
84,3
Pooled Cedulas
18,2
31,7
44,2
65,1
90,6
44,1
Single Cedulas
17,7
19,4
25,0
36,8
68,4
26,4
Banks Senior
35,6
70,6
117,2
-
-
62,8
-20,4
-
-
-
-
-20,4
Sovereign
Sw eden Covered
-3,8
1,4
4,4
-
-
2,0
Banks Senior
27,1
28,7
41,4
44,9
-
32,7
Sw itzerland Covered
10,6
10,0
14,9
-
-
11,6
Banks Senior
26,4
43,8
52,5
82,9
-
40,1
180,7
237,2
267,3
-
-
238,1
-
288,5
-
-
-
288,5
4,8
14,4
20,2
21,6
24,8
15,9
Sovereign
Banks Senior
UNITED KINGDOM
UK Covered
Source iBoxx, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 20
11. May 2016
Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies (SSA) - Austria
Agencies: Total volume outstanding (currencies, in EUR bn., % )
25
JPY; ,3140;
1%
20
USD;
12,0330;
25%
JPY
15
USD
NOK
10
CHF;
6,6013;
14%
NOK;
,1072; 0%
GBP
5
GBP; ,8845;
2%
EUR
CHF
0
ASFING
OBND
OKB
BIG
EUR;
27,3475;
58%
ELG
Number of issues (all currencies):
Volume outstanding (EUR bn):
Average duration (years):
Number of EUR issues ≥500m:
Average volume (EUR bn)
109
47.9
6.4
23
1.1
7.2
Agencies: Maturities (all currencies, in EUR mn)
6000
ELG
5000
BIG
4000
OKB
3000
OBND
2000
ASFING
1000
0
Agencies (EUR): Residual time to maturity
(years) and yield (YTM, % )
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-0,5
-1,0
ASFING
OBND
OKB
BIG
ELG
AT SOVEREIGN
DE SOVEREIGN
Page 21
11. May 2016
Sub-Sovereign: issued amounts outstanding in currencies
(translated into EUR m and shares % )
2.500
CHF;
1.625;
32%
2.000
1.500
NOK
1.000
EUR;
3.379;
68%
EUR
CHF
500
ATS
Total amount outstanding (EUR m):
Issues
Average size (m):
WOHNAV
WIENHG
VIENNA
SALZLD
NIEDOE
LKABG
LINZ
LIGK
LIG
KIG
KARWFF
KARNTN
GRZCTY
BURLHG
BELIG
0
EUR Issues ≥100m:
Average volume (EUR m):
5,133
88
58
8
205
4.6
1.400
WOHNAV
WIENHG
1.200
VIENNA
SALZLD
1.000
NIEDOE
LKABG
800
LINZ
LIGK
600
LIG
KIG
400
KARWFF
KARNTN
200
GRZCTY
BURLHG
2035
2039
2038
2037
2036
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
0
BELIG
Page 22
11. May 2016
Additional Information
Rating Changes
Com pany Nam e
Kutxabank SA
Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl
Deutsche Kreditbank AG
ABN AMRO Bank NV
Belfius Bank SA/NV
ING Bank NV
ING Belgium SA/NV
SNS Bank NV
Abbey National Treasury Services
PLC/United Kingdom
Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl
Banco Popolare SC
Bankia SA
BAWAG PSK Bank fuer Arbeit und
Wirtschaft und Oesterreichische
Postsparkasse AG
Bankia SA
Standard Chartered Bank
Standard Chartered PLC
UniCredit Bank Austria AG
Deutsche Bank AG
Deutsche Postbank AG
DNB Bank ASA
BNP Paribas Fortis SA
BNP Paribas SA
Commerzbank AG
mFinance France SA
Banco do Brasil SA
Date
28.04.2016
21.04.2016
20.04.2016
14.04.2016
14.04.2016
14.04.2016
14.04.2016
14.04.2016
13.04.2016
Rating Type
Senior Unsecured Debt
LT Issuer Default Rating
Long Term Rating
Long Term Rating
Agency
Moody's
Fitch
Moody's
Fitch
Fitch
Fitch
Fitch
Fitch
Moody's
Curr Rtg
Ba1
BB+ *A2
A+
AA+
A+
BBB+
Aa3
Last Rtg Ctry
Ba2
ES
BB+
IT
DE
A
NL
BBB+
BE
A
NL
A
BE
BBB
NL
GB
13.04.2016
13.04.2016
12.04.2016
12.04.2016
Issuer Rating
Issuer Rating
Long Term Rating
Moody's
Moody's
Moody's
Moody's
Ba3 *+
Ba3 *+
Ba2u
A3
Ba3
Ba3
05.04.2016
31.03.2016
31.03.2016
30.03.2016
21.03.2016
21.03.2016
16.03.2016
11.03.2016
11.03.2016
07.03.2016
07.03.2016
07.03.2016
07.03.2016
26.02.2016
26.02.2016
25.02.2016
LT Foreign Issuer Credit
Issuer Rating
Long Term Rating
Long Term Rating
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
Moody's
Moody's
Moody's
S&P
S&P
Fitch
Fitch
Moody's
Moody's
S&P
S&P
Moody's
BB+
A
BBB+
BBB
Baa1 *A2 *Aa2
A
A
BBB+
BBB
Aa3
A1
A+ *A- *Ba3
BB
A+ *A- *BBB *Baa1
Baa1
Aa3
A+ *A+ *BBB
BBBAa2 *Aa3 *A+
A-
IT
IT
ES
AT
ES
GB
GB
AT
DE
DE
NO
BE
FR
DE
FR
GB
GB
GB
GB
BR
Page 23
11. May 2016
Calendar: Earnings Releases
Com pany Nam e
Nykredit Bank A/S
Credit Agricole SA
Raiffeisen Bank International AG
(C) Banco do Brasil SA
Com pany Ticker Date
314767Z DC
11.05.2016
ACA FP
12.05.2016
RBI AV
12.05.2016
BBAS3 BZ
12.05.2016
Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna SC
Credito Emiliano SpA
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG
Unione di Banche Italiane SpA
Bank of Scotland PLC
DNB Bank ASA
Bank of Montreal
Royal Bank of Canada
Toronto-Dominion Bank/The
Canadian Imperial Bank of
Commerce/Canada
Bank of Nova Scotia/The
National Bank of Canada
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The
Wells Fargo & Co
Citigroup Inc
Svenska Handelsbanken AB
Bank of America Corp
Morgan Stanley
Sw edbank AB
Nordea Bank AB
Danske Bank A/S
Bankinter SA
Banco de Sabadell SA
BPE IM
CE IM
PBB GR
UBI IM
BSCT LN
SNOG NO
BMO CN
RY CN
TD CN
CM CN
12.05.2016
12.05.2016
12.05.2016
12.05.2016
13.05.2016
18.05.2016
25.05.2016
26.05.2016
26.05.2016
26.05.2016
Date Type Tim e
C
C
07:00
C
07:30
C
Befmkt
C
C
C
C
E
E
C
C
12:00
C
12:30
C
Type
ER
ER
ER
ER
Period
Q1 2016
Q1 2016
Q1 2016
Q1 2016
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
Q1 2016
Q1 2016
Q1 2016
Q1 2016
Y 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
BNS CN
NA CN
JPM US
SEBA SS
GS US
WFC US
C US
SHBA SS
BAC US
MS US
SWEDA SS
NDA SS
DANSKE DC
BKT SM
SAB SM
31.05.2016
01.06.2016
14.07.2016
14.07.2016
14.07.2016
15.07.2016
15.07.2016
15.07.2016
18.07.2016
18.07.2016
18.07.2016
20.07.2016
21.07.2016
22.07.2016
22.07.2016
C
C
C
C
E
C
C
C
C
E
C
C
C
E
E
ER
13:15 ER
12:45 ER
ER
ER
14:00 ER
14:00 ER
ER
12:45 ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Q2 2016
S1 2016
S1 2016
Page 24
11. May 2016
Recent Publications
Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials (4 May 2016)
 RLB NOE-Wien posts positive 2015 annual result
 SSA: ASFINAG reports strong 2015 annual earnings
 České Dráhy posts 2015 loss
 Overview Primary Market/Secondary Market
Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials (27 April 2016)

Hypo Tirol releases 2015 annual report and Moody's confirms its rating of Ba1

Maturity extension for covered bonds in the works in Germany as well

OeBB Group reports solid 2015 earnings

Overview Primary Market/Secondary Market

BAWAG P.S.K.: Moody's upgrade to A3 with a positive outlook

Consolidated earnings performance of Austria's banks in 2015


Heta: FMA debt haircut for senior liabilities of more than 50%

Carinthia questions guarantee obligations and provides collateral for approx. EUR 1 bn. in liabilities

VakifBank plans EUR-denominated benchmark covered bond issue


UniCredit Bank Austria: S&P and Fitch revise outlook to 'negative'

Federal provinces and municipalities: stable debt dynamics in 2015, reform of fiscal equalization scheme

Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials (30 March 2016)

'Aaa' rating not economically viable – Hypo Vorarlberg aims for more efficient cover pool management

Wrap-up: primary market activities in EUR covered bond markets

OeKB: Annual earnings decline in 2015, outlook for 2016 stable


Moody's: transparency exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) highlights differences in asset
quality

Carinthia's deficiency guarantees: rating agencies disagree on support assumptions, S&P affirms AA+ rating
for Austria

SID Banka reports preliminary 2015 earnings


Carinthia: Heta offer has failed, now the ball is in the FMA's court

ECB initiates new long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)


Carinthia: offer for Heta debt securities with a deficiency guarantee expires this week

KA Finanz covered bonds receive 'AA-' rating from S&P

City of Vienna sets strategy reducing foreign exchange risks

Page 25
11. May 2016
Contacts
Group Research
Head of Group Research
Friedrich Mostböck, CEFA
+43 (0)5 0100 11902
Major Markets & Credit Research
Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA
+43 (0)5 0100 11909
Ralf Burchert, CEFA (Agency Analyst)
+43 (0)5 0100 16314
Hans Engel (Senior Analyst Global Equities)
+43 (0)5 0100 19835
Christian Enger, CFA (Covered Bonds)
+43 (0)5 0100 84052
Margarita Grushanina (Economist AT, CHF)
+43 (0)5 0100 11957
Peter Kaufmann, CFA (Corporate Bonds)
+43 (0)5 0100 11183
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+43 (0)5 0100 16574
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+43 (0)5 0100 17331
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Brett Aarons
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Saving Banks & Sales Retail
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Page 26
11. May 2016
Disclaimer
This publication was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its consolidated subsidiaries (together with consolidated
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Erste Group Homepage: www.erstegroup.com
Page 27

Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials

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