Net in

The Impact of Population Development Changes in the Central
Bohemian Region on ElementarySchool Capacities after 1991*
Marie Kusovská ([email protected]), Luděk Šídlo ([email protected])
Department of Demography and Geodemography, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science
The Central Bohemian Region lies in the middle of Bohemia around Prague, the capital city. Considering
the area and population, it is the biggest region in Czechia. After 1989 the settlement structure of the
region has been changing mainly due to suburbanization process. In nineties the construction activities
firstly stagnated due to termination of state involvement into housing construction, unsolved situation
with lands and not very good economic situation of most people, later big developers came on the scene.
After 2000 the suburbanization has been developing more rapidly, the main reason was better availability of housing funding
products within people, such as mortgages and building savings (Ouředníček, Posová, 2006, p. 100–102). Together with the
settlement changes occurred changes in population development and age structure on the local level. The following analysis
compares population development and its impact on school capacities in two periods 1991–1998 (start of suburbanization
process) and 2006–2013 (after escalation of suburbanization).
Figure 2: Webb graph
1991–1998
2006–2013
Webb graph is a graphic method which
expresses the nature of population
development by comparing its two
components: natural change and net
migration. It was created by J. S. Webb
to evaluate population development in
local administrative areas (Webb, 1963).
The inputs are the values of crude rate
of natural change (vertical axis of
Cartesian coordinate system) and net
migration (horizontal axis). The positive
orientation of axes show population
growth and the negative population
decline.
Figure 1: Webb graph scheme
Webb
categories
In the first period in 63 % of municipalities the population was totally decreasing, the share of dominant natural or migration
decline was quite similar. On the other hand the majority of totally rising municipalities was caused by a positive level of a
migration rate which exceeded natural decrease (type D). In spatial structure of the region it is hard to identify any patterns. In
the south hinterland of Prague, where lies municipalities popular in the early stage of suburbanization such as Průhonice,
Jesenice or Černošice, is stronger representation of types C and D. Decreasing population was mainly in localities further from
Prague and along the border of the Central Bohemian Region. Spatial structure in the second period shows an organization to
concentric zones, in a wider zone around Prague prevails type C, followed by a weaker circle of D type and in the south periphery
of the region are municipalities with declining population. Lastly named area is an inner periphery, it lies on the border of two or
three regions, where is worse availability to the centres of job opportunities, education or services (more in Musil, Müller, 2008).
The interesting thing is that in other peripheral and also rural parts of the Central Bohemian Region (edges of districts Rakovník,
Kutná Hora, Nymburk, Mladá Boleslav or Mělník) is very often D type. This fact could indicate the development of
counterurbanization, which means moving people from urban or suburban areas to rural areas due to economic or lifestyle
reasons (Šimon, 2012, p. 2).
Figure 3: School capacities
1991–1998
2006–2013
Average
number
of pupils
Source: ČSÚ, 2014b; MŠMT, 2015
The population development viewed by the Webb graph can give us some clues about the age structure. The highest intensity of
migration is among people in younger productive age, followed by small children and then by older people entering retirement.
With age is highly connected need of concrete public services, e.g. elementary schools. In Czechia each municipality is obliged to
provide elementary school capacities for its children inhabitants. Therefore rapid changes in number of children can cause big
problems to municipalities, if their representatives do not think ahead. This was quite a problem in early stage of
suburbanization, the municipalities did not expected such a rejuvenation of the age structure and their school capacities were
not sufficient. In the same way people moving into suburbs firstly did not realise this problem. Later the sufficient school
capacities became one of the reasons for people to move in the municipality. Elementary school capacities in suburban areas
have been increasing slowly, so between the two periods we can see very few changes. The most visible is an increased school
capacity in municipalities in the hinterland of Prague, on the other hand in peripheral municipalities the school capacityis
declining. This happens also in municipalities gaining population through counterurbanization, because the counterurban
migrants are often people in retirement age (Šimon, 2012, p. 8) and natural increase is there usually negative, while suburban
areas are preferred by younger people starting a family (Puldová, Novák, 2008, p. 42).
6th Demographic Conference of "Young Demographers"
Actual Demographic Research of Young Demographers (not only) in Europe
12th and 13th February 2015
*The study was supported by the Charles University in Prague, project GA UK No 1288214.
Increase: natural Increase: natural
icrease exceeds icrease exceeds
net out-migration net in-migration
Decrease: net
out-migration
exceeds natural
increase
Decrease: net
out-migration
exceeds natural
decrease
A B
H
G
F E
Decrease:
natural decrease
exceeds net outmigration
Increase:
net in-migration
exceeds natural
increase
C
Increase:
D net in-migration
exceeds natural
decrease
Decrease:
natural decrease
exceeds net inmigration
Net in-migration
Source: ČSÚ, 2014a.
Net out-migration
Natural increase
Natural decrease
Source: Webb, 1963.
The comparison of natural change and
net migration values could result in
eight different situations, which are
marked with letters A–H. For example
letter A expresses the population
development where natural increase
exceeds net out-migration, which
means total population growth. A, B, C
and D are the categories with total
population growth, in the opposite,
categories E, F, G and H mean total
population decline.
References:
ČSÚ. 2014a. Databáze demografických údajů za obce ČR. Praha:
Český statistický úřad. [cit. 2015-01-20]. Dostupné z:
http://www.czso.cz/xs/redakce.nsf/bce41ad0daa3aad1c1256c6
e00499152/ebadf3cb4a53779cc125766d0046e3e9/$FILE/Dem
ografie_89_08.pdf.
ČSÚ. 2014b. Městská a obecní statistika – školství. Časové řady
za obce 1991–1998. Data zakoupená od ČSÚ.
MŠMT. 2015. Kapacity základních škol. Časové řady za obce
2005–2014. Data poskytnutá MŠMT.
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OUŘEDNÍČEK, M., POSOVÁ, D. 2006. Suburbánní bydlení v
Pražském městském regionu: etapy vývoje a prostorové
rozmístění. In: Ouředníček, M. ed.: Sociální geografie Pražského
městského regionu.
PULDOVÁ, P., NOVÁK, J. 2008. Suburbanizace a sociální
prostředí. In: OUŘEDNÍČEK, M. (et al.). Suburbanizace.cz. Praha:
Přírodovědecká fakulta Univerzity Karlovy v Praze, 2008. 96 s.
ISBN 978-80-86561-72-1.
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80-86561-94-1.
ŠIMON, M. 2012. Exploring Counterurbanisation in a PostSocialist Context: Case of the Czech Republic. Sociologia
ruralis. Article first published online: 11 OCT 2012, DOI:
10.1111/j.1467-9523.2012.00576.x
Article available at
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.14679523.2012.00576.x/abstract.
WEBB, J. W. 1963. The Natural and Migrational Components of
Population Changes in England and Wales, 1921–1931.
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