Predictive Analytics for Police Forces

Predictive Analytics for Police
Forces
Jaap Vink
Global Predictive Analytics Leader Public Sector
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Analytics in Law Enforcement is more than just crime prevention
What if…
Performance management
Human resources
…could see and understand all
aspects impacting public safety and
performance?
…could attract and retain topperforming employees by understanding
drivers behind employee satisfaction?
Process
improvement
Operations
management
…could gain critical
insights to manage
and maximize
performance?
…could improve
traffic flows and
reduce emissions?
Budgeting and
finance
Crime prevention and
management
…could have real-time
insights into program budgets
across jurisdictions to reduce
spending responsibly?
…could have insights to beat
criminals to the scene?
Programs and services
…could predict current and future needs of
citizens and design programs accordingly?
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Identifying Challenges
“How can I get a holistic
view of perpetrators,
suspects and victims,
including non-obvious
relationships?”
• Provide
data integration
capabilities with entity resolution
to understand who is who and
who knows who
“How can I make my
officers safer?”
“How can I do status tracking
of perpetrator / suspects ?”
•
• Provide
statistical and historical
analytic capabilities designed to define
and evaluate patterns and trends
Provide live situational
awareness to patrol
officers and detectives
“How can I collaborate with and
integrate information from federal,
state & county agencies?”
• Enable standards compliant interfaces
•Enable note connectivity
“How can I get predictive
capability to detect, define and
deter crime?”
“How can I receive actionable alerts to preempt criminal activity & safety risks?”
• Enable
“constant analytics” to evaluate threshold
situations, and provide mobile analytic capability to field
police officers
• Provide
predictive analytics of both
standard and unstructured data to
deliver foresight and actionable patterns
“How can I meet requirements
for compliance and
accountability?”
• Provide
supporting data and reporting
capability for accountability programs
and internal affairs
“How can I connect the city to
the public safety mission?”
Enable collaboration in real time
Maximize all data and sensors – even
a broken street light can be the source
of a mugging opportunity
“How can I get flexible & robust
reporting, including ad-hoc and
exceptions?”
• Create
a robust and encompassing data
architecture and infrastructure that provides ample
room for expansion to meet changing needs
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Smarter Government
A police directorate in Europe uses business intelligence to fight
crime and keep roads safe
100% of crimes
and traffic incidents are now
reported on a centralized system
>200 reports
help officers and managers
make better operational and
strategic decisions
Facilitates
more efficient police work as a
result of accurate, timely and
location-based insight
Business challenge: Years ago, the police in this region in Europe had to access
23 different systems to get the information they needed. Things got better when
the region’s police directorate consolidated the information on a single platform,
but the new platform did little more than spit out facts. The directorate wanted to
use technology to its advantage, but to do so, it needed analytics.
The smarter solution: The directorate developed a business intelligence solution
that allows officers and managers to dig deeply into their data to identify trends
and uncover relationships between criminals and crimes. The solution features a
geographical information system (GIS) that allows users to visualize crimes and
traffic incidents to identify and monitor hotspots such as accident-prone
intersections, and then determine the best way to manage them.
This is the country’s most comprehensive and advanced police system, and users
have described it as a quantum leap in operational intelligence.
BUSINESS SCENARIO: DECISIONING - FORCE DEPLOYMENT
The agency uses predictive
analytics to proactively deploy
police forces and prevent crime
Understands
geographically
where events are
likely to happen
Operational
Alert
Planning
Shift Commander
Enabling factors
(Weather, Police
presence, …)
Risk Assessment
Crash in Zone 123A
If
Day=Saturday
And EntertainmentEvent
And DayAfterPayday
And DispatchZone=004
Then V_Crime=Yes (65, 0.98)
Risk Assessment: area 008
Reallocation
Patrol Officer
If
Condition=Rain
And Temp>=60
And PatrolActivityPS=High
Then V_Crime=No (0.92)
Notices change in
weather conditions
Likelihood
of Crime
Historical
crime incidents
(RMS, CAD)
Triggers
(City events,
Paydays, Time,
Holiday…)
Interactive
Decisioning
© IBM 2012
Government | Business Solution Category | Germany
A State Law Enforcement Agency
What if people’s safety relied on analytics?
A state law enforcement agency in Germany simplifies information gathering and enables real-time access to critical decision-making
information to improve public safety.
The Opportunity
What Makes it Smarter
This German state agency manually collected
information from its over 6,000 law enforcement
officers, coast guard officers, criminal
investigation specialists and more about every
incident, every day. All of this information was
spread across many systems and was too difficult
to use to make immediate tactical decisions or
perform longer-range planning.
It is smart police procedure to record every incident attended, including all the relevant
details. Up-to-date and up-to-the-minute information is critical for police work.
By utilizing archived, present, and streaming data, this German police force is creating
and providing a safer, and thus, smarter environment for its citizens. Combined
information can now be viewed and analyzed form every angle, creating new
approaches for investigation work. Pertinent information provides strategic policing,
emergency response – as well as a view to potential criminal activity and scientific
investigation of unsolved or present criminal events. Every law enforcement employee
now has a single and easy way to input information into the department’s database –
regardless of their unit, workstation or location.
Real Business Results
• Statistics can now be viewed in nine
dimensions
• Increased police response time
• Increased citizen safety
• Significant labor saving
“The possibility of combining information and viewing it from all
angles has opened up completely new approaches for investigation
work.”
Government | Information and Analytics | Northeast Europe
Geneva Cantonal Police
What if you could predict where and when crimes were most likely to happen?
A police agency takes preemptive action, deploying officers where they are needed most and reducing criminal offenses, after launching
a solution empowered with predictive analytics—a first of its kind in the region.
The Opportunity
What Makes it Smarter
The mission of Geneva Cantonal Police is to
ensure the safety of more than 600,000
residents. Crime in the area was rising at an
alarming rate. Although police collected
massive amounts of crime data from citizen
calls and incident reports, the agency
struggled to make meaningful use of the
information. When and where were most
crimes being committed? Where were future
crimes most likely to occur, and by whom?
Were certain types of crimes on the rise?
Without concrete answers, taking preemptive
action was impossible, and allocating and
optimizing resources was difficult. Without
greater and city-wide insight into criminal
activity, the department’s efforts to anticipate,
deter and stop crime were hindered.
Across the globe, forward-thinking police agencies are arming themselves with sophisticated
analytics to combat crime. And for good reason: It works. After implementing a predictive
analytics solution, this police department gained city-wide insight into unlawful activity,
enabling officers to stay one step ahead of criminals. The solution employs statistical and
mathematical analytics, along with algorithmic techniques, to detect patterns and predict
where and when crimes might happen. To gain contextual meaning, officers can view data
interactive, geospatial maps. When thresholds for certain crimes are breached, police are
alerted. For instance, the system might detect that youth offenses are more likely to be
committed on Wednesday afternoons and late Saturdays and concentrated in downtown
neighborhoods. The department can now take preemptive action, dispatching and allocating
officers at the right place at the right time.
Real Business Results
• Gained the ability to better predict where and when crimes are most likely to occur
• Enhanced the optimization and allocation of resources
• Improved ability to determine the best course of action needed to deter crime
This solution not only helps us target areas where crimes might
occur, but also ensures that police officers' time is used effectively.
—Didier Froidevaux, Head of Strategic Studies Department
BUSINESS SCENARIO: POLICE DECISIONING - INVESTIGATIONS
PD uses predictive analytics to profile crimes & criminals to
improve solved crime rates and optimize resource usage
Johnny is arrested for breaking into a car
He is 15 years old and confesses that he wanted to
belong to a group of friends
Will he become a
repeat offender?
If YES: advise DA and
later parole officer?
Aspiring Repeat Offender profile
…
If
male
And age 14-16
And crime =‘car break in’
And motive =‘peer pressure’
Then repeat risk is HIGH  ALERT DA
…
Crime Data
Crime profile  Team 4
A citizen reports a burglary
Reports that her house was burglarized while she was
talking to a representative from the city council
Cluster ‘Bogus Official’
- Burglary,
- Visit by city official,
- Entry ‘Back door’,
- Victim “Elderly’
Predictive Modeling
for Crime Pattern
Detection
Does this crime resemble Do we have a team working on
others? Is it serial?
similar crimes that we can assign
it to?
Crime record notes
and call logs
Surveillance
Data
CS profile  No Deployment
A Break-in into a shop is reported
The perpetrators entered by breaking a window probably
between 3am and 5am. Crime was discovered at 6 pm
next day
Does it make sense to
send out a CSI team?
Is it likely that they’ll
find useful evidence?
An organized crime unit wants to bust a drugs ring
The detectives are interested in identifying the central
players within a narcotics network
Who are the key persons? Who are the leaders?
…
If
Break In
And Night
And report>12hrs
And entry =‘broken window’
And object=‘Commercial Property’
Then probability evidence is 6%
…
Key Players
Focus on:
• Keith Patterson
• Colin Wiertz
• Markus Haffey
© IBM 2012
Communication Data
Management Dashboard
Financial Data
Government | Business Analytics | Southwestern Europe
A European Government Agency
What if you could leverage relevant information from anywhere in your organization to make problem solving exponentially
more effective?
A European government agency deployed a statistical analysis solution across all its departments to drive major improvements in
criminal investigations and enhance its own recruitment efforts.
The Opportunity
What Makes It Smarter
An important part of this agency’s mission is
to provide support for criminal investigations.
It sought to improve its effectiveness in this
regard by creating a more integrated view of
information – much of it highly sensitive –
that was scattered across multiple
departments, so that all relevant data could
be brought to bear in helping resolve specific
cases. The agency also wanted to improve
certain aspects of its recruiting efforts.
Solving criminal cases as expeditiously as possible is vital, but it is often difficult to find the
“missing link” that can pull a case together. This European government agency implemented a
unified analytics solution that addresses this challenge by enabling investigators and other
personnel to obtain a holistic picture of crime-related data such as weapons and ballistics
information, handwriting and voice identification, DNA and other information critical to solving
crimes. The solution brings together millions of data points stored in multiple databases
maintained by the agency’s various departments into a single source of data, upon which
statistical analyses are performed to improve the agency’s effectiveness in helping to solve
criminal cases. The agency is also deploying the solution to create psychological profiles, key in
the staffing of specific missions, and to identify staff training needs.
Real Business Results
• Increased the success rate of criminal investigations
• Improved the candidate selection process in staffing for critical job roles
• Optimized the allocation of staff for critical tasks while reducing the risk of inappropriate
behavior, absence or underperformance
• Helped align organizational strategy and education programs to address key security risks
as perceived by citizens
“The solution has helped us sharply improve the agency’s
performance in one of our principal missions –
supporting criminal investigations.”
German State Police Department
Solving crimes made smarter, not harder
The need:
When solving crimes, police departments must deal with huge amounts of information. Some of this
information is nothing more than tips and notices from citizens. This German State police department
wanted to be able to search this type of unstructured information and find key linkages and data to support
investigations.
The solution:
In a first-of-a-kind implementation, the department piloted the IBM an Analytics solution, developed with the
help of IBM Research. The solution uses faceted, algorithm-based search capabilities to identify the
specific information relevant to a case. Entity Analytics includes Relationship Resolution, which finds
relevant relationships among seemingly disparate case data.
What makes it smarter:
 Enables users to set parameters for searches, examine relationships between seemingly unrelated
data, and analyze both structured and unstructured data.
 Allows relational searching of multiple data sources to completed electronically, instead of manually,
and is anticipated to significantly reduce the person-hours required and increase the accuracy of
results.
 Unstructured Information Management Architecture (UIMA) allows the user to leverage text analysis
engines (annotators) that add semantic structure to text-based information. This allows for concept
© 2014 IBM Corporation
(semantic) searching.
Hessian Police Criminalistic-Criminological Research Center
Business Need
The KKFoSt (Kriminalistisch-Kriminologische Forschungsstelle) investigates the
conditions and the nature of indictable offenses and crime, with a particular focus
on studying serious and repeat offenders.
The aim of the KKFoSt project is to use experience in order to optimize the way in
which repeat and serious offenders are dealt with and prosecuted.
Solution
Use advanced analysis to identify repeat offenders and those who commit serious
crimes.
Results
• Identification of various types of repeat and serious offenders and selective
categorization using cluster analysis.
• Key identification of dependencies and patterns using univariate, bivariate and
multivariate analytical methods.
• On the basis of the MIT types identified, it was possible to derive a number of
measures for investigative police work and prevention.
• Prevention of criminal offenses committed by a certain type of MIT.
© 2014 IBM Corporation
How do you get started on the analytics strategy?
5
4
3
2
1
Focus on the
biggest and
highest value
opportunities
Start with
questions,
not with data
Embed insights
to drive actions
and deliver
value
Keep existing
capabilities
while adding
new ones
Source: Analytics: The new path to value, a joint study by MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute for Business Value. (c) Massachusetts
Institute of Technology 2010.
Develop an
analytics
plan for the
future
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Roadmap
Phase n
• Flexible, phased approach
• KPIs at every step
• Aggressive ROI
Phase n
Phase n
Phase n
Phase n
Phase 1
Time
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Question?
Jaap Vink
[email protected]
© 2014 IBM Corporation