Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials

Transkript

Erste Group Research
Credit Markets | Covered Bonds/Financials | Europe
6. August 2014
Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials
Analyst:
Christian Enger, CFA
[email protected]
CONTENTS
Highlights ................................................... 1
Topics of the Week
Fitch quarterly report: Transparency
improves, key data of programs barely
changed ..................................................... 2
Portuguese bank in trouble – Banco Espirito
Santo requires support ............................... 5
Moody's once again downgrades OeVAG's
issuer rating ............................................... 6
Primary Market
Financials ................................................... 7
Covered Bonds .......................................... 8
New Issues – EUR Benchmark Format .... 10
Maturities ................................................. 11
Secondary Market
Covered Bond Asset-Swap-Spreads ........ 12
Covered Bond Country Comparison (AT,
FR, GE, NL, SW, ES, UK) ........................ 13
Spread Comparison ................................. 20
Additional Information
Rating Changes ....................................... 21
Calendar: Earnings Releases ................... 22
Recent Publications ................................. 23
Disclaimer
Major Markets & Credit Research
Gudrun Egger, CEFA (Head)
[email protected]
Christian Enger, CFA (Covered Bonds)
[email protected]
Highlights
Fitch quarterly report: Transparency improves, key data of programs
barely changed
Compared to last quarter's covered bond market analysis, the key metrics
have barely changed at Fitch. The agency has upgraded three programs,
while one has been downgraded. However, the number of positive outlook
designations has declined from eleven to six. Approximately 60% of the
programs continue to be assigned an 'AAA' rating by Fitch. The agency is
pushing ahead with improving its transparency. It publishes to what extent
credit loss, cash flow valuation and asset
disposal loss influence the
2
breakeven OC of individual covered bond programs. Even though the
potential credit risks of cover pools normally receive the greatest attention,
Fitch's quarterly report shows that these aren't the greatest risk covered
bond investors face. It is rather asset disposal losses that represent the
greatest potential risk in the majority of cases (57%).
Portuguese bank in trouble – Banco
7 Espirito Santo requires support
Problems within the corporate group of the Espirito Santo family also weigh
on Banco Espirito Santo (BES). The bank needs to be supported with
government aid. The company is to be split into a “good” and a “bad bank”.
The impaired assets remain with BES. The burdens resulting from this are
12
to be borne by shareholders and subordinated
creditors. Depositors and
other non-subordinated creditors don't have to contribute. The sound
business activities are going to be transferred to a newly founded “good
bank”, Novo Banco. The bank resolution fund will provide it with the
required equity capital of EUR 4.9 bn.
21 For this purpose it will receive a
bridging loan from Portugal's government.
Moody's once again downgrades OeVAG's issuer rating
25 OeVAG continue to decline. The
Support assumptions with respect to
support uplift granted by Moody's now stands at four notches (previously:
six), which is in line with other systemically relevant banks in Austria. This
was the main reason for reducing the institution's issuer rating as well, from
'Ba1' to 'Ba3'. As a result of taking this step, Moody's removes the
company's 'watch negative' status. However, due to ongoing pressure on
both the stand-alone rating as well as support assumptions due to the
BRRD, the outlook remains negative.
Indications of past performance are no
guarantee of a positive performance in the
future!
Erste Group Research – Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials
Page 1
6. August 2014
Topics of the Week
Fitch quarterly report: Transparency improves, key data of
programs barely changed
Revised CB rating methodology
leads to greater resiliency
against issuer downgrades
In its Q1 2014 report on the covered bond markets, Fitch has taken its
revised covered bond rating methodology as well as changes in support
assumptions into account for the first time. The assignment of IDR uplifts
has resulted in covered bond programs exhibiting greater resiliency
against issuer downgrades. Of the 129 programs which Fitch rates on its
international scale, 43, resp. 33% of the programs would be affected by a
downgrade as of the end of Q2 2014, if the issuer rating were lowered by
one notch. In Q4 2013, this would still have affected the ratings of 45% of
the programs.
Small adjustments to program
metrics in quarterly comparison
Compared to the last analysis, only small adjustments to the key metrics
of the programs have resulted. However, the agency was able to achieve
progress in the implementation of its new rating methodology. Two mortgage
backed programs from Spain (Laboral Kutxa and Santander) and one from
Italy (UniCredit) were upgraded, while the covered bond rating of Bank of
Cyprus has been lowered. The number of programs with a positive outlook
has however declined from eleven to six. In terms of the rating distribution
there is accordingly little change. Approximately 60% of the programs have
been assigned an 'AAA' rating by Fitch. Less than 5% are placed in the high
yield segment.
Trend of ratings at Fitch since 2006
Source: Fitch
Improvement of transparency:
Fitch publishes components of
breakeven OC
Apart from taking into account the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive
(BRRD) in its covered bond ratings, Fitch's quarterly report exhibits an
improvement in transparency. At the beginning of July 2014, the agency
already announced that it would disclose the components of the
overcollateralization that secures ratings (breakeven OC). This has now
been implemented with respect to 91 programs (70% of Fitch's covered
bond rating universe). The breakeven OC is subdivided into three building
blocks:
 Credit loss describes the credit risks of the pool. Essentially it
represents the expected losses which result from default
probabilities and recovery rates of cover assets. When interpreting
this metric, one must consider that it refers to the (maximum)
outstanding volume of covered bonds, and not the cover pool. For
Page 2
6. August 2014


this reason, credit loss is slightly above the rating loss rate (RLR),
which has already been published in the past. The latter refers to
the cover pool.
Cash flow valuation compares the stressed present value of
covered bonds and cover assets. The metric takes risks stemming
from swaps, resp. open interest rate and foreign exchange
positions, costs owed to third parties (e.g. fees for alternative cover
pool management) and stressed prepayments into account. The
stressed present value of cover assets can in principle be higher
than that of the covered bonds. Thus the factor “cash flow valuation”
can also lead to a reduction in overcollateralization requirements.
Asset disposal loss expresses the expected losses from maturity
mismatches. In order to service covered bonds on a timely basis in
the event of an issuer default, it will often be necessary to liquidate
cover assets. As it is assumed that this is only possible with
haircuts, Fitch expects a risk buffer in the form of
overcollateralization to stabilize the covered bond rating in this
context as well.
Additional information required
for interpretation of breakeven
OC components
The agency examines whether the overcollateralization is sufficient for a
recovery rate of more than 51%, 71% or 91%. Since it doesn't refer to a
value of 100% in this case, the actual breakeven OC is as a rule below the
aggregate of credit loss, cash flow valuation and asset disposal loss. The
breakeven OC can also diverge from the aggregate of the three factors if the
agency equates them with legally or contractually guaranteed minimum
values. Moreover, Fitch reserves the right to deviate from its modeled
values, so that for the interpretation of breakeven OC components,
additional information must be taken into account.
Asset disposal losses represent
the greatest potential risk for
the majority (57%) of covered
bond programs
Even though the potential credit risks of cover pools generally receive the
most attention, Fitch's quarterly report shows that these do not represent the
greatest risk to covered bond investors. Only in 29% of programs are credit
losses the major factor contributing to the breakeven OC. Rather, the
greatest potential risks emanate from asset disposal losses in the
majority of cases (57%). For the remaining 14%, cash flow valuation is the
greatest risk factor. Regarding the metrics, there are clear differences
depending on covered bond jurisdiction and the underlying type of covered
bond (mortgage, public sector, etc.). Unfortunately there aren't yet any data
available on the breakeven OC of French covered bond programs. Similarly,
for purposes of better comparability, not all programs with a Fitch rating
could be taken into account in the following analysis. Thus it contains only
79 of 131 programs overall, which results in a very small sample size in
several countries.
Page 3
6. August 2014
Components of breakeven OC weighted by covered bond volume
(selected programs)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Australia
(Mtg) (5)
Belgium
(Mtg) (3)
Canada
(Mtg) (11)
Denmark
(Mtg) (5)
Germany
(Mtg) (7)
Germany
(PS) (7)
Ireland
(Mtg) (2)
Italy
(Mtg) (6)
Luxembourg
(PS) (1)
Netherlands
(Mtg) (5)
New Zealand
(Mtg) (5)
Norway
(Mtg) (2)
Norway
(PS) (1)
Spain
(Mtg) (3)
Switzerland
(Mtg) (2)
United Kingdom
(Mtg) (13)
-20%
Credit Loss
Credit Loss
Cash Flow Valuation
Source: Fitch, Erste Group Research
Asset encumbrance not a
problem for senior unsecured
creditors of the majority of
covered bond issuers rated by
Fitch
In the quarterly report Fitch points separately to its analysis of asset
encumbrance by covered bonds. Just as was the case in the past, this
doesn't represent a problem for the majority of covered bond issuers rated
by Fitch. The risks for senior unsecured investors have actually declined
recently as a result of the preferential claim of covered bond creditors to
parts of an issuer's assets. This structural subordination is even less
important in light of low new issuance volumes. Swedish and Danish issuers
remain ranked at the top with respect to asset encumbrance, which can be
ascribed to the business models of these specialized institutions.
Asset encumbrance (only countries with more than two issuers were
taken into account in the sample)
Source: Fitch, Issuers
Page 4
6. August 2014
Portuguese bank in trouble – Banco Espirito Santo
requires support
Problems within the corporate
group of the Espirito Santo
family affect Banco Espirito
Santo – the bank has to be
supported with state aid
The major shareholder of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo (BES), which
belongs to the corporate group of the Espirito Santo family (Grupo Espirito
Santo), already attracted attention with negative headlines several days ago.
Hopes that these problems wouldn't represent an existential threat to the
financial institution were however quickly shattered. A disorderly insolvency
of the institution, which with a balance sheet total of approx. EUR 80 bn. is
among the top three banks in the Portuguese market, could have had a
material negative impact on Portugal's economy. In order to avert this risk,
BES is supported with state aid.
Splitting of the company: BES
becomes a "bad bank"
The restructuring model provides for splitting the company into a “good
bank” and a “bad bank”. The impaired assets remain with BES, which
consist primarily of claims against other entities of Grupo Espirito Santo, as
well as the bank's shareholding in fully consolidated BES Angola. All
shareholders as well as subordinated creditors remain in BES, and thus are
supposed to bear the losses of the impaired portfolio. The bad bank will
subsequently be wound down in orderly fashion. Viable business activities,
which comprise the majority of assets, will be transferred to the newly
founded “good bank”, which is going to be called “Novo Banco”. Nothing will
change for existing customers. The bank resolution fund will provide the
required equity capital in the amount of EUR 4.9 bn. to the “good bank”. The
fund is essentially financed by member contributions (Portuguese financial
institutions) and the bank levy. As the resolution fund has only started to
become active in 2012, its funding is however still far from sufficient. It will
therefore receive a bridging loan of EUR 4.4 bn. from the Portuguese
government. The loan is however only temporary and will be replaced by
loans from domestic banks or the proceeds from a possible sale of Novo
Banco, resp. of its assets.
Transfer of viable business
activities to the "good bank"
Measures in line with the
European commission's rules
It is intended to avoid any direct costs to Portugal's tax payers. The
European Commission's crisis rules for banks of 10.July 2013 stipulate
that “in case of capital shortfalls, bank owners and junior creditors will be
required to contribute as a first resort, before banks can ask for public
funding.” Thus the approach to BES is in line with EU competition rules. In
future bank restructurings, providers of regulatory capital will not be able to
benefit from state aid. The rating agencies have already taken this factor into
account in their ratings of subordinated liabilities. According the EU's rules
on state aid, depositors and other senior creditors do not have to make
a contribution. They are also explicitly excluded from burden-sharing in the
case of BES.
EU commission approves
measures
The EU commission regards the restructuring aid for Banco Espirito Santo to
be in line with the EU's state aid rules and has already approved the
procedure. However, the bridge bank's new business will be restricted, in
order to keep competitive distortions at a minimum.
Page 5
6. August 2014
Moody's once again downgrades OeVAG's issuer rating
Support assumptions for
OeVAG are reduced further, the
rating declines from ‚Ba1‘ to
‚Ba3‘
Moody's has already become active at the end of March 2014 and has
downgraded the rating of Oesterreichische Volksbanken AG (OeVAG) from
'Baa3' to 'Ba1', based on weaker support assumptions. This week the
agency continued in this vein and reduced the rating once again, to 'Ba3'.
Once again, the lowering of support assumptions was the main reason. The
rating action in Q1 2014 reduced the support uplift from seven to six
notches. It now declines further to four notches. Analogous with this, the
issuer rating has declined by two notches as well. With this step the uplift
has reached a level comparable to that of other systemically relevant banks
in Austria. Moody's states explicitly that the support uplift of four notches for
the senior unsecured rating also reflects the buffer provided by subordinated
liabilities amounting to EUR 557 m. (as of 31. March 2014). These would be
affected prior to senior unsecured liabilities in the event of a bail-in.
Rating outlook remains
negative
The bank financial strength rating (BFSR) as a measure of the company's
stand-alone rating has been confirmed at 'E'. The baseline credit
assessment (BCA), which represents an institution's intrinsic strength on a
standard rating scale, remains constant at 'caa1'. As a result of this step,
Moody's removes the company's 'watch negative' status. However, the
outlook remains negative. The agency justifies this with ongoing pressures
on the stand-alone rating as well as on support assumptions due to the Bank
Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD). Moody's acknowledges that
OeVAG's capitalization has improved and that is able to report progress on
the winding down of legacy burdens. However, the company's profitability
remains weak. Further losses could thus weigh on the equity capital base.
This is one of the reasons why Moody's sees a risk that the Volksbanken
sector may need to raise additional capital. Apart from this, the agency
stresses that some hybrid capital instruments will no longer qualify as capital
once the Basel III regulations are fully adopted. Moody's doesn't comment
on speculation in Austrian media that the ECB's comprehensive assessment
(CA) could reveal a capital shortfall of EUR 500 to 1,000 m. at OeVAG.
However, the agency regards it as likely that Austria's Volksbank sector – in
combination with deleveraging by OeVAG – is able to cover any potential
shortfalls on its own.
Page 6
6. August 2014
Primary Market
Financials
Financials: New issues in EUR broken down by debt type
2012-2014 YTD
Monthly data since 01/2012
60.000
Banks
Sub; 8,4%
GGB;
2,0%
50.000
Covered;
40,8%
in EUR m
40.000
Banks
Senior;
48,8%
30.000
20.000
10.000
11/2013
12/2013
01/2014
02/2014
03/2014
04/2014
05/2014
06/2014
07/2014
08/2014
01/2014
02/2014
03/2014
04/2014
05/2014
06/2014
07/2014
08/2014
10/2013
09/2013
08/2013
12/2013
Banks Senior
07/2013
06/2013
05/2013
04/2013
03/2013
02/2013
01/2013
12/2012
11/2012
Covered
11/2013
GGB
10/2012
09/2012
08/2012
07/2012
06/2012
05/2012
04/2012
03/2012
02/2012
01/2012
0
Banks Sub
Source: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Financials: New issues in EUR broken down by country
2012-2014 YTD
60.000
Australia;
3,5%
Austria;
2,7%
40.000
Denmark;
2,0%
Sweden;
5,7%
Finland;
2,8%
Spain;
9,3%
France;
21,4%
Norway;
3,6%
30.000
20.000
10.000
Benelux
France
Germany
Nordics
Italy & Iberia
10/2013
09/2013
08/2013
07/2013
06/2013
05/2013
04/2013
03/2013
02/2013
01/2013
12/2012
11/2012
10/2012
09/2012
08/2012
07/2012
06/2012
05/2012
04/2012
03/2012
Ireland;
2,0%
02/2012
0
Germany;
9,7%
01/2012
Netherlands;
9,0%Italy; 9,4%
50.000
Britain;
5,9%
Switzerland; 2,5%
in EUR m
Other;
10,7%
UK & Ireland
Other
Page 7
6. August 2014
Covered Bonds
Covered Bonds: Monthly comparison of new issues in EUR since 2012
2012-2014 YTD
30.000
Dec; 3.650
Nov; 9.163
25.000
Jan;
22.485
Oct; 6.500
Sep; 9.288
Feb; 9.447
in EUR m
20.000
Aug; 6.400
15.000
10.000
Mar;
10.258
Jul; 5.233
5.000
Jun; 8.150
May; 6.442
Apr; 9.002
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2012
Jun
2013
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014
Covered Bonds: New issues in EUR broken down by type
2012-2014 YTD
Austria
Covered;
3,3%
UK Covered;
Sweden 2,9%
Covered;
3,6%
Single
Cedulas;
8,9%
Portugal
Covered;
1,4%
Canada
Covered;
France
4,8%
Covered
Legal; 6,3%
France
Covered
SFH; 12,9%
30.000
25.000
20.000
in EUR m
Other
Covered;
19,6%
Hypotheken
pfandbriefe;
11,2%
15.000
10.000
5.000
Benelux Covered
France Covered
Germany Covered
Italy & Iberia Covered
UK & Ireland Covered
Other Covered
08/2014
07/2014
06/2014
05/2014
04/2014
03/2014
02/2014
01/2014
12/2013
11/2013
10/2013
09/2013
08/2013
07/2013
06/2013
05/2013
04/2013
03/2013
02/2013
01/2013
12/2012
11/2012
10/2012
09/2012
08/2012
07/2012
06/2012
05/2012
04/2012
03/2012
02/2012
Italy
Covered;
7,4%
Ireland
Covered;
2,0%
01/2012
0
Oeffentliche
Pfandbriefe;
5,3% Norway Netherlands
Covered; Covered;
4,2%
6,1%
Nordic Covered
Source: iBoxx, Bond Radar, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 8
6. August 2014
Covered Bonds: New issues in EUR broken down by investor type
2012-2014 YTD
Annual data since 01/2012
50%
Other
Retail and
Corporates; Investors;
Insurance
2%
4%
and Pension
Funds; 13%
45%
40%
Asset
Manager;
35%
Central
Banks and
Agencies;
13%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Banks; 40%
0%
Asset Manager
Banks
Central Banks and
Agencies
2012
Insurance and
Pension Funds
2013
Retail and
Corporates
Other Investors
2014
Covered Bonds: New issues in EUR broken down by investors’ location
2012-2014 YTD
Annual data since 01/2012
60%
40%
CEE; 8%
France;
11%
20%
10%
2012
2013
Other Regions
UK and Ireland
Switzerland
Spain and Portugal
North America
Nordic Countries
Middle East
Italy
Germany and Austria
Asia
Germany
and Austria;
50%
France
0%
Middle East;
3%
Italy; 10%
30%
CEE
Spain and
Portugal;
11%
North
America;
3%
Nordic
Countries;
10%
50%
Benelux
Switzerland;
4%
Other Asia; 7%
UK and
Regions;
Ireland;
Benelux;
3%
11%
7%
2014
Page 9
6. August 2014
New Issues – EUR Benchmark Format
ISIN
Issuer
IT0005039711
BANCA POPOLARE
SONDRIO
EFSF
DEUTSCHE
HYPOTHEKENBANK
TORONTO-DOMINION
BANK
LANDBK HESSENTHUERINGEN
TALANX AG
KFW
DEUTSCHE
GENOSSEN-HYPOBK
HELLENIC REPUBLIC
HSH NORDBANK AG
EU000A1G0DB8
DE000DHY4382
Type
Launch
Tap Volume Currency Coupon Coupon
Date
(in m)
Type
Italy Covered 29.07.2014 N
500 EUR
1,375 FIXED
Maturity
Issue Rating
Current Spread Issue Spread Book Volume
S&P/Moody's/Fitch (ASW) (Mid)
(ASW)
(in m)
05.08.2019
NR/NR/Ae
70
75
1.100
Supra
Hypothekenpfandbriefe
Canada
Covered
Oeffentliche
Pfandbriefe
Financial
Agency
Sovereign
Muni/Local
Gov't
Supra
Financial
Italy Covered
22.07.2014
21.07.2014
N
N
4.000 EUR
500 EUR
2,350
0,625
FIXED
FIXED
29.07.2044
29.07.2019
NR/Aa1e/AA+
NR/Aa2/NR
25
-2
31
1
6.100
1.400
21.07.2014
N
1.750 EUR
0,625
FIXED
29.07.2019
NR/(P)Aaa/NR
3
7
2.500
17.07.2014
Y
500 EUR
1,125
FIXED
27.05.2021
NR/Aaa/AAA
-1
-
-
16.07.2014
15.07.2014
14.07.2014
N
N
N
500 EUR
1.500 EUR
500 EUR
2,500
0,375
0,875
FIXED
FIXED
FIXED
23.07.2026
22.07.2019
21.07.2021
A-/NR/NR
AAA/Aaa/AAA
AAA/NR/NR
77
-19
-3
97
-16
-
2.600
1.600
10.07.2014
10.07.2014
N
N
1.500 EUR
500 EUR
3,375
0,625
FIXED
FIXED
17.07.2017
17.07.2019
B-/Caa3/B
NR/Aa3/NR
303
8
11
1.000
LAND BADENWUERTTEMBERG
EU000A1G0DA0 EFSF
XS1028950290 NN GROUP NV
IT0005038283 BANCA MONTE DEI
PASCHI S
XS1086879167 REPUBLIC OF ICELAND Sovereign
10.07.2014
N
1.250 EUR
1,000
FIXED
18.07.2022
AAA/Aaae/NR
-4
-1
1.600
09.07.2014
08.07.2014
08.07.2014
N
N
N
4.000 EUR
1.000 EUR
1.000 EUR
0,080
4,500
2,875
FIXED
15.07.2015
VARIABLE 15.07.2049
FIXED
16.07.2024
NR/NR/NR
NR/Baa3/NR
NR/Baa3/A
-25
310
155
300
148
1.300
08.07.2014
N
750 EUR
2,500
FIXED
NR/Baa3e/BBB
172
175
2.000
DE000RLP0587
08.07.2014
N
1.125 EUR
0,163
FLOATING 15.07.2016
NR/NR/AAA
-3
-4
-
08.07.2014
N
1.250 EUR
1,375
FIXED
10.06.2024
AA/NR/NR
3
4
-
07.07.2014
N
546 EUR
2,875
FIXED
17.07.2023
BBB/NR/BBB
150
-
-
02.07.2014
N
500 EUR
1,000
FIXED
09.07.2021
NR/Aaa/AAA
-4
3
1.100
02.07.2014
01.07.2014
N
N
2.000 EUR
1.000 EUR
0,375
0,500
FIXED
FIXED
10.07.2017
11.07.2018
AA/Aa3/AA
NR/Aa1/AA+
1
-7
8
-
2.750
1.700
26.06.2014
26.06.2014
26.06.2014
26.06.2014
N
N
N
N
600
700
1.000
500
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
3,750
3,875
2,750
0,625
FIXED
VARIABLE
VARIABLE
FIXED
05.07.2021
03.07.2044
08.07.2026
03.07.2019
NR/NR/NR
BBB/Baa1/NR
BBB+/Baa3/AAA+/Aaa/NR
311
247
175
-6
248
183
8
4.700
1.700
1.800
25.06.2014
Y
500 EUR
1,625
FIXED
15.03.2023
AAA/Aaa/AAA
-4
-
-
24.06.2014
Y
991 EUR
2,125
FIXED
20.11.2023
NR/Aa1/AAA
-5
-
-
23.06.2014
N
1.250 EUR
0,329
FLOATING 30.06.2016
NR/Aa1/AA+
6
12
-
19.06.2014
18.06.2014
N
N
500 EUR
1.000 EUR
4,250
1,625
FIXED
FIXED
26.06.2018
25.06.2019
CCC+/Caa2/BBBB+/Baa2/A
424
75
95
1.000
2.500
18.06.2014
N
750 EUR
2,250
FIXED
25.06.2029
AAA/Aaa/AAA
21
31
1.500
18.06.2014
N
1.000 EUR
0,750
FIXED
25.06.2019
AAA/Aaa/AAA
1
8
2.000
18.06.2014
N
750 EUR
4,750
FIXED
25.06.2019
B/NR/B-
418
-
2.000
Banks Senior 17.06.2014
N
1.500 EUR
0,662
FLOATING 15.12.2017
A/A1/A
39
45
2.500
Banks Senior 17.06.2014
N
1.250 EUR
1,250
FIXED
A/A2/A+
40
50
2.100
XS1091094448
XS1071847245
DE000TLX2102
XS1087815483
DE000A11QBA6
GR0110029312
DE000HSH4S28
DE0001040970
LAND RHEINLANDPFALZ
DE000A1RQB11 LAND HESSEN
Muni/Local
Gov't
Muni/Local
Gov't
ES0000101644 COMMUNITY OF
Muni/Local
MADRID SPAI
Gov't
DE000BLB6H61 BAYERISCHE
Oeffentliche
LANDESBANK
Pfandbriefe
XS1085171152 DEXIA CREDIT LOCAL GGB
FR0012021632 CAISSE CENT CREDIT Banks Senior
IMMOB
PTPETUOM0018 PARPUBLICA
Agency
XS1083986718 AVIVA PLC
Financial
FR0012018851 BPCE SA
Banks Tier2
XS1083955911 NEDER
Agency
WATERSCHAPSBANK
XS1068872925 EUROPEAN
Supra
INVESTMENT BANK
EU000A1U9803 EURO STABILITY
Supra
MECHANISM
FR0012006948 BPIFRANCE FINANCE Agency
SA
XS1081588086 ERB HELLAS PLC
Banks Senior
XS1080952960 ROYAL BK SCOTLND Banks Senior
GRP PLC
XS1081100239 NATIONWIDE BLDG
UK Covered
SOCIETY
XS1081041557 NATIONWIDE BLDG
UK Covered
SOCIETY
XS1081101807 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS Sovereign
XS1079975808
XS1080078428
CREDIT SUISSE
LONDON
ING BANK NV
15.07.2020
13.12.2019
Page 10
6. August 2014
Maturities
Financials: EUR bonds maturities broken down by debt type
450.000
400.000
350.000
in EUR m
300.000
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
GGB
Covered
Banks Senior
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
0
Banks Sub
Covered Bonds: EUR bonds maturities broken down by covered type
35.000
30.000
25.000
in EUR m
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
Benelux Covered
France Covered
Germany Covered
Nordic Covered
Italy & Iberia Covered
UK & Ireland Covered
08/2017
07/2017
06/2017
05/2017
04/2017
03/2017
02/2017
01/2017
12/2016
11/2016
10/2016
09/2016
08/2016
07/2016
06/2016
05/2016
04/2016
03/2016
02/2016
01/2016
12/2015
11/2015
10/2015
09/2015
08/2015
07/2015
06/2015
05/2015
04/2015
03/2015
02/2015
01/2015
12/2014
11/2014
10/2014
09/2014
08/2014
0
Other Covered
Page 11
6. August 2014
Secondary Market
Covered Bond Asset-Swap-Spreads
200
150
100
50
0
iBoxx € Austria Covered
iBoxx € France Covered Legal
iBoxx € France Covered SFH
iBoxx € Hypothekenpfandbriefe
iBoxx € Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
iBoxx € Netherlands Covered
iBoxx € Norway Covered
iBoxx € Sweden Covered
06/2014
03/2014
12/2013
09/2013
06/2013
03/2013
12/2012
09/2012
06/2012
03/2012
12/2011
09/2011
06/2011
03/2011
12/2010
09/2010
06/2010
03/2010
12/2009
09/2009
06/2009
03/2009
12/2008
-50
iBoxx € Canada Covered
iBoxx € Ireland Covered
iBoxx € Italy Covered
iBoxx € Portugal Covered
iBoxx € Spain Covered Single Cedulas
iBoxx € Spain Covered Pooled Cedulas
iBoxx € UK Covered
iBoxx € US Covered
06/2014
03/2014
12/2013
09/2013
06/2013
03/2013
12/2012
09/2012
06/2012
03/2012
12/2011
09/2011
06/2011
03/2011
12/2010
09/2010
06/2010
03/2010
12/2009
09/2009
06/2009
03/2009
12/2008
1.000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 12
6. August 2014
Covered Bond Country Comparison (AT, FR, GE, NL, SW, ES, UK)
Austria
iBoxx spread performance (ASW in bp)
Spread curve (iBoxx constituents; ASW in bp)
60
250
50
200
40
30
150
20
10
100
0
-10
50
-20
0
-30
iBoxx € Austria Covered
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
Poly. (iBoxx € Covered)
Austria Covered
iBoxx € Covered
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
06/2017
12/2016
06/2016
12/2015
12/2008
03/2009
06/2009
09/2009
12/2009
03/2010
06/2010
09/2010
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
06/2015
12/2014
-40
-50
Poly. (Austria Covered)
EUR bonds –production and redemption
EUR benchmark issuers (iBoxx constituents)
7.000
5.000
4.500
6.000
4.000
5.000
in EUR m
3.500
in EUR m
4.000
3.000
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
2.000
1.000
1.000
500
Austria Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
VORHYP
RFLBST
RFLBNI
KA
HYNOE
ERSTBK
BAWAG
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Austria Covered - Redemption
BACA
0
0
Other/Mixed
Source: iBoxx, BondRadar, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 13
6. August 2014
France
250
60
50
200
40
30
20
150
10
0
100
-10
-20
50
-30
-40
12/2008
03/2009
06/2009
09/2009
12/2009
03/2010
06/2010
09/2010
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
12/2014
05/2015
10/2015
03/2016
08/2016
01/2017
06/2017
11/2017
04/2018
09/2018
02/2019
07/2019
12/2019
05/2020
10/2020
03/2021
08/2021
01/2022
06/2022
11/2022
04/2023
09/2023
02/2024
07/2024
12/2024
0
iBoxx € Covered
iBoxx € France Covered Legal
iBoxx € France Covered SFH
France Covered Legal
France Covered SFH
Poly. (France Covered Legal)
Poly. (France Covered SFH)
EUR bonds – production and redemption
60.000
50.000
45.000
50.000
40.000
35.000
in EUR m
in EUR m
40.000
30.000
20.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
10.000
5.000
France Covered - Production
Public
SOCSFH
LBPSFH
SOCSCF
CRH
HSBC
CMARK
CMCICB
CFF
CIFEUR
CAFFIL
BPCOV
BNPSCF
Mortgage
BPCECB
AXASA
BNPPCB
ACACB
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
France Covered - Redemption
ACASCF
0
0
Other/Mixed
Page 14
6. August 2014
Germany
250
60
50
200
40
30
150
20
10
100
0
-10
50
-20
0
-30
12/2014
05/2015
10/2015
03/2016
08/2016
01/2017
06/2017
11/2017
04/2018
09/2018
02/2019
07/2019
12/2019
05/2020
10/2020
03/2021
08/2021
01/2022
06/2022
11/2022
04/2023
09/2023
02/2024
07/2024
12/2024
-40
12/2008
03/2009
06/2009
09/2009
12/2009
03/2010
06/2010
09/2010
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
-50
iBoxx € Covered
iBoxx € Hypothekenpfandbriefe
iBoxx € Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
Poly. (Hypothekenpfandbriefe)
Poly. (Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe)
80.000
12.000
70.000
10.000
60.000
8.000
in EUR m
in EUR m
50.000
40.000
30.000
6.000
4.000
20.000
2.000
10.000
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Germany Covered - Redemption
Germany Covered - Production
AARB
BHH
BYLAN
CMZB
DB
DEXGRP
DGHYP
DHY
DKRED
DPB
HESLAN
HSHN
HVB
HYPFRA
INGDIB
LBBW
MUNHYP
NDB
PBBGR
SPKKB
WLBANK
0
0
Mortgage
Public
Other/Mixed
Page 15
6. August 2014
Netherlands
60
250
50
40
200
30
20
150
10
0
100
-10
-20
50
-30
iBoxx € Netherlands Covered
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
Netherlands Covered
iBoxx € Covered
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
06/2017
12/2016
06/2016
12/2015
12/2014
12/2008
03/2009
06/2009
09/2009
12/2009
03/2010
06/2010
09/2010
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
06/2015
-40
0
Poly. (Netherlands Covered)
12.000
25.000
10.000
20.000
in EUR m
in EUR m
8.000
6.000
15.000
10.000
4.000
5.000
2.000
Netherlands Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
SNSSNS
NIBCAP
INTNED
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Netherlands Covered - Redemption
ABNANV
0
0
Other/Mixed
Page 16
6. August 2014
Sweden
60
250
50
40
200
30
20
150
10
0
100
-10
-20
50
-30
06/2024
12/2024
Poly. (Norway Covered)
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
06/2017
12/2016
Sweden Covered
SWEDA
iBoxx € Sweden Covered
Norway Covered
SHBASS
iBoxx € Norway Covered
06/2016
12/2015
12/2014
12/2008
03/2009
06/2009
09/2009
12/2009
03/2010
06/2010
09/2010
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
iBoxx € Covered
06/2015
-40
0
Poly. (Sweden Covered)
14.000
20.000
18.000
12.000
16.000
10.000
in EUR m
14.000
in EUR m
8.000
6.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
4.000
2.000
2.000
Sweden Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
SEB
SBAB
NDASS
LANSBK
SVEGNO
SPABOL
EIKBOL
DNBNO
SAMBNK
POHBK
NDASS
AKTIA
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Sweden Covered - Redemption
DANBNK
0
0
Other/Mixed
Page 17
6. August 2014
Spain
700
250
600
200
500
150
400
100
300
iBoxx € Covered
Pooled Cedulas
Single Cedulas
iBoxx € Spain Covered Single Cedulas
Poly. (Pooled Cedulas)
iBoxx € Spain Covered Pooled Cedulas
Poly. (Single Cedulas)
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
06/2017
12/2016
06/2016
12/2015
12/2014
12/2013
09/2013
06/2013
12/2012
09/2012
03/2013
-50
06/2012
0
03/2012
0
12/2011
100
06/2015
50
200
60.000
25.000
50.000
20.000
in EUR m
in EUR m
40.000
30.000
15.000
10.000
20.000
5.000
10.000
Spain Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
UCAJLN
SANTAN
SABSM
POPSM
NOVAGA
KUTXAB
CRUNAV
CAJARU
CABKSM
BMARE
BKTSM
BKIASM
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Spain Covered - Redemption
BBVASM
0
0
Other/Mixed
Page 18
6. August 2014
UK
250
60
50
200
40
30
150
20
10
100
0
-10
50
-20
-30
12/2008
03/2009
06/2009
09/2009
12/2009
03/2010
06/2010
09/2010
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
0
iBoxx € Covered
iBoxx € UK Covered
UK Covered
12/2024
06/2024
12/2023
06/2023
12/2022
06/2022
12/2021
06/2021
12/2020
06/2020
12/2019
06/2019
12/2018
06/2018
12/2017
06/2017
12/2016
06/2016
12/2015
06/2015
12/2014
-40
Poly. (UK Covered)
25.000
18.000
16.000
20.000
14.000
12.000
in EUR m
in EUR m
15.000
10.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
5.000
2.000
UK Covered - Production
Mortgage
Public
YBS
RBS
NWIDE
NRKLN
LLOYDS
BRADBI
BACR
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
UK Covered - Redemption
ABBEY
0
0
Other/Mixed
Page 19
6. August 2014
Spread Comparison
Country
Type
AUSTRALIA
Australia Covered
-5,3
3,6
11,4
20,7
18,4
9,4
Banks Senior
11,7
30,9
31,4
38,1
-
24,2
AUSTRIA
BELGIUM
CANADA
DENMARK
FINLAND
Sovereign
NORWAY
Total
-18,1
-8,1
7,4
-10,3
7,8
14,9
19,8
17,4
12,1
Banks Senior
56,9
84,2
-
-
-
72,1
-29,0
-24,4
-13,6
7,2
45,3
3,6
Belgium Covered
-8,8
-1,0
6,4
14,4
-
3,8
Banks Senior
35,1
59,7
-
-
-
43,3
-25,4
Sovereign
Sovereign
-
-
-25,4
-
-
Canada Covered
-
2,2
9,1
-
-
3,6
-26,3
-
-
-
-
-26,3
Denm ark Covered
-6,0
-2,2
4,4
11,5
-
0,6
Banks Senior
24,3
-
-
-
-
24,3
-29,0
-25,4
-15,1
-5,3
2,3
-13,3
-6,0
-0,4
5,7
-
-
-1,1
6,2
25,4
35,1
-
-
21,3
Sovereign
Sovereign
Sovereign
-28,1
-23,5
-17,4
2,1
38,3
-0,9
France Covered Legal
-6,2
-2,3
7,3
17,0
38,1
5,8
France Covered SFH
-7,5
-1,6
5,3
14,8
19,8
4,6
-
1,9
-
-
-
1,9
23,9
42,2
50,3
61,3
67,8
44,0
Sovereign
-32,3
-35,6
-34,0
-24,1
-2,0
-24,5
-8,9
-3,4
-2,1
4,2
8,2
-4,0
Oeffentliche Pfandbriefe
-9,8
-4,9
-2,7
-0,8
22,5
-5,6
Other Pfandbriefe
10,8
21,7
-
-
-
16,3
Banks Senior
NETHERLANDS
>10Y
-27,2
Banks Senior
ITALY
7-10Y
-0,5
France Covered Structured
IRELAND
5-7Y
-30,4
Banks Senior
GERMANY
3-5Y
Austria Covered
Finland Covered
FRANCE
1-3Y
44,3
40,5
57,7
58,0
88,4
52,6
-29,1
8,3
38,9
90,2
112,6
40,6
Ireland Covered
30,1
36,6
54,8
-
-
36,4
Sovereign
21,7
57,3
90,1
138,4
176,7
97,7
Italy Covered
43,9
58,7
69,1
87,8
80,4
62,0
Banks Senior
73,3
93,5
105,1
111,9
-
87,0
-29,0
-26,8
-16,8
-5,3
5,6
-13,5
Sovereign
Sovereign
Netherlands Covered
-5,5
0,6
6,6
8,1
-
2,1
Banks Senior
24,6
44,0
41,7
50,3
58,2
38,1
Norw ay Covered
-3,6
0,7
8,7
11,7
-
2,1
Banks Senior
28,0
45,0
46,0
43,1
-
40,9
PORTUGAL
Portugal Covered
76,3
103,0
121,9
-
-
97,3
SPAIN
Sovereign
6,7
45,6
74,4
123,9
168,6
89,7
Pooled Cedulas
66,0
93,9
118,9
150,3
185,6
117,5
Single Cedulas
33,5
72,1
51,5
71,8
92,2
51,4
Banks Senior
41,1
80,6
62,6
-
-
53,3
-26,3
-23,0
-
-
-
-24,6
SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
USA
BULGARIA
Sovereign
Sw eden Covered
-8,5
-3,6
3,4
-
-
-3,3
Banks Senior
11,2
31,7
35,1
39,5
-
24,3
Sw itzerland Covered
-3,2
1,8
5,8
11,6
-
2,0
Banks Senior
13,3
26,7
41,7
-
-
25,2
UK Covered
-2,0
1,9
10,0
12,0
21,4
4,0
Banks Senior
21,5
44,9
53,7
62,5
-
39,0
US Covered
12,6
-
-
-
-
12,6
Banks Senior
29,0
52,9
60,6
67,7
82,5
50,3
-
-
-
-
186,0
186,0
Sovereign
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 20
6. August 2014
Additional Information
Rating Changes
Com pany Nam e
Deutsche Bank AG
NCG Banco SA
Banco Espirito Santo SA
Banca Carige SpA
Banco Espirito Santo SA
Nomura Holdings Inc
Banco Santander Totta SA
BNP Paribas SA
Caja Rural de Navarra
Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl
SBAB Bank AB
Erste Group Bank AG
Raiffeisen Bank International AG
UniCredit Bank Austria AG
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA
Banco Santander SA
Bankinter SA
BNP Paribas SA
Pohjola Bank PLC
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA
Banco Santander SA
DEPFA Bank PLC
KBC Groep NV
Deutsche Bank AG
Bayerische Landesbank
Danske Bank A/S
Danske Bank Oyj
Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones de Barcelona
Date
29.07.2014
29.07.2014
16.07.2014
15.07.2014
11.07.2014
07.07.2014
04.07.2014
03.07.2014
26.06.2014
17.06.2014
11.06.2014
10.06.2014
10.06.2014
10.06.2014
04.06.2014
04.06.2014
04.06.2014
04.06.2014
30.05.2014
29.05.2014
29.05.2014
19.05.2014
08.05.2014
06.05.2014
02.05.2014
29.04.2014
29.04.2014
17.04.2014
14.04.2014
Rating Type
Issuer Rating
LT Foreign Issuer Credit
Issuer Rating
LT Issuer Default Rating
Issuer Rating
Issuer Rating
Issuer Rating
Issuer Rating
Agency
Moody's
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
S&P
Fitch
S&P
Moody's
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
Fitch
Fitch
S&P
Moody's
Moody's
Moody's
S&P
S&P
S&P
S&P
Curr Rtg
A3
B
B- *BB+ *Baa3 *+
BBB
A+
BBB+
B+
A2
A *A *A- *BBB
BBB+
BB+
A+ *AAAABBB
A3
A2 *A3
A
A
B+ *BBu *-
Last Rtg
A2 *B+
B+ *B- *BBBaa3
BBBA+ *BBB
B+ *A2 *A
A
ABBBBBB
BB
A+
AA- *BBB+
BBB+
BBB *Baa1
A2
Baa1
AABB- *BBu
Ctry
DE
ES
PT
IT
PT
JP
PT
FR
ES
IT
SE
AT
AT
AT
ES
ES
ES
FR
FI
ES
ES
IE
BE
DE
DE
DK
FI
IT
ES
Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 21
6. August 2014
Calendar: Earnings Releases
Com pany Nam e
Pohjola Bank PLC
Standard Chartered PLC
KBC Groep NV
Commerzbank AG
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA
(P) State Bank of India
(C) State Bank of India
Unione di Banche Italiane SCpA
Banco Popolare SC
Dexia SA
Aareal Bank AG
Commonw ealth Bank of Australia
SpareBank 1 SMN
SpareBank 1 SR Bank ASA
(C) Banco do Brasil SA
Sparebanken Vest
Raiffeisen Bank International AG
ABN AMRO Bank NV
Royal Bank of Canada
Toronto-Dominion Bank/The
Pow szechna Kasa Oszczednosci Bank
Polski SA
Mediobanca SpA
Wells Fargo & Co
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Citigroup Inc
Bank of America Corp
Morgan Stanley
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The
Com pany Ticker Date
POH1S FH
06.08.2014
STAN LN
06.08.2014
KBC BB
07.08.2014
CBK GR
07.08.2014
BMPS IM
07.08.2014
SBIN IN
08.08.2014
SBIN IN
08.08.2014
PMI IM
08.08.2014
UBI IM
08.08.2014
BP IM
08.08.2014
DEXB BB
08.08.2014
ARL GR
12.08.2014
CBA AU
13.08.2014
MING NO
13.08.2014
SRBANK NO
13.08.2014
BBAS3 BZ
14.08.2014
SVEG NO
21.08.2014
RBI AV
21.08.2014
3531454Z NA
22.08.2014
RY CN
28.08.2014
TD CN
28.08.2014
PKO PW
01.09.2014
Date Type Tim e
C
07:00
C
C
07:00
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
12:00
C
C
C
E
C
C
Type
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
Period
Q2 2014
S1 2014
S1 2014
Q2 2014
S1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2015
S1 2014
S1 2014
S1 2014
S1 2014
Q2 2014
Y 2014
Q2 2014
Q2 2014
Q2 2014
Q2 2014
Q2 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
MB IM
WFC US
JPM US
C US
BAC US
MS US
GS US
C
E
E
E
E
E
E
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
ER
Y 2014
Q3 2014
Q3 2014
Q3 2014
Q3 2014
Q3 2014
Q3 2014
17.09.2014
10.10.2014
10.10.2014
15.10.2014
16.10.2014
17.10.2014
17.10.2014
Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Page 22
6. August 2014
Recent Publications
Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials (30 July 2014)

Country ceiling: How company domiciles are capping Moody's covered bond ratings

Update: Classification of covered bonds in accordance with the liquidity coverage ratio

Overview Primary Market/Secondary Market

Moody's reaction to the HAA legislative package – sub-sovereigns & agencies

Further details on the road map of the comprehensive assessment – results to be published by the end of
October 2014

Update: Reporting by Austrian covered bond issuers (Q1 2014)


Cover pool reporting by Austrian covered bond issuers (Q1 2014)

Update: Germany continues to polish its Pfandbrief legislation


OeNB Financial Stability Report: challenges remain

S&P: Covered bond ratings have stabilized – pressures due to methodological adjustments foreseeable


New EU timetable for definition of Liquidity Coverage Ratio

Legislation on HAA wind-down: reaction of rating agencies

Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials (18 June 2014)

Government get special law for HAA wind-down of the group - S&P issues watch negative on bank ratings,
Fitch confirms view

Update: classification of covered bonds as LCR level 1B assets likely


Economic risks in Austria's banking sector are stabilizing – approach to HAA weighs on ratings

Legislative changes in France strengthen position of covered bond investors


Moody's reassesses systemic support

Fitch: Methodology adjustment makes covered bonds less sensitive to issuer downgrades

Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials (28 May 2014)

Moody's keeps negative outlook on Austria's banking sector

Update on HAA: Moody's once again downgrades rating of HAA bonds with deficiency guarantees

Page 23
6. August 2014
Contacts
Group Research
Head of Group Research
Friedrich Mostböck, CEFA
Major Markets & Credit Research
Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA
Ralf Burchert (Agency Analyst)
Hans Engel (Senior Analyst International Equities)
Christian Enger, CFA (Covered Bonds)
Margarita Grushanina (Economist AT, CHF)
Alihan Karadagoglu (Senior Analyst Corporate Bonds)
Peter Kaufmann (Corporate Bonds)
Stephan Lingnau (International Equities)
Rainer Singer (Senior Economist Euro, US)
Elena Statelov, CIIA (Corporate Bonds)
Gerald Walek, CFA (Economist Euro)
Katharina Böhm-Klamt (Quantitative Analyst Euro)
Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE
Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI)
Zoltan Arokszallasi (Fixed income)
CEE Equity Research
Head: Henning Eßkuchen
Chief Analyst: Günther Artner, CFA (CEE Equities)
Johannes Dietrich
Günter Hohberger (Banks)
Franz Hörl, CFA (Basic Resources)
Daniel Lion, CIIA (Technology, Ind. Goods&Services)
Thomas Unger; CFA (Insurance, Miscellaneous)
Vera Sutedja, CFA (Telecom)
Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma)
Martina Valenta, MBA (Real Estate)
Editor Research CEE
Brett Aarons
Deniz Gurgen
Research Croatia/Serbia
Head: Mladen Dodig (Equity)
Head: Alen Kovac (Fixed income)
Anto Augustinovic (Equity)
Ivana Rogic (Fixed income)
Milan Deskar-Skrbic (Fixed income)
Davor Spoljar, CFA (Equity)
Research Czech Republic
Head: David Navratil (Fixed income)
Petr Bittner (Fixed income)
Head: Petr Bartek (Equity)
Vaclav Kminek (Media)
Jiri Polansky (Fixed income)
Katarzyna Rzentarzewska (Fixed income)
Martin Krajhanzl (Equity)
Lubos Mokras (Fixed income)
Jan Sedina (Fixed income)
Research Hungary
Head: József Miró (Equity)
Gergely Gabler (Fixed income)
András Nagy (Equity)
Orsolya Nyeste (Fixed income)
Tamás Pletser, CFA (Oil&Gas)
Research Poland
Head: Magdalena Komaracka, CFA (Equity)
Marek Czachor (Equity)
Tomasz Duda (Equity)
Adam Rzepecki (Equity)
Ludomir Zalewski (Equity)
Research Romania
Chief Economist, Director: Radu Craciun
Head: Mihai Caruntu (Equity)
Head: Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income)
Chief Analyst: Eugen Sinca (Fixed income)
Dorina Cobiscan (Fixed Income)
Raluca Florea (Equity)
Marina Alexandra Spataru (Equity)
Research Turkey
Head: Can Yurtcan
Evrim Dairecioglu (Equity)
M. Görkem Göker (Equity)
Sezai Saklaroglu (Equity)
Nilufer Sezgin (Fixed income)
Ilknur Unsal (Equity)
+43 (0)5 0100 11902
+43 (0)5 0100 11909
+43 (0)5 0100 16314
+43 (0)5 0100 19835
+43 (0)5 0100 84052
+43 (0)5 0100 11957
+43 (0)5 0100 19633
+43 (0)5 0100 11183
+43 (0)5 0100 16574
+43 (0)5 0100 17331
+43 (0)5 0100 19641
+43 (0)5 0100 16360
+43 (0)5 0100 19632
+43 (0)5 0100 17357
+43 (0)5 0100 18781
+43 (0)5 0100 19634
+43 (0)5 0100 11523
+43 (0)5 0100 11913
+43 (0)5 0100 17354
+43 (0)5 0100 18506
+43 (0)5 0100 17420
+43 (0)5 0100 17344
+43 (0)5 0100 11905
+43 (0)5 0100 17343
+43 (0)5 0100 11913
+420 956 711 014
+90 212 371 2538
+381 11 22 09 178
+385 72 37 1383
+385 72 37 2833
+385 72 37 2419
+385 72 37 1349
+385 72 37 2825
+420 224 995 439
+420 224 995 172
+420 224 995 227
+420 224 995 289
+420 224 995 192
+420 224 995 232
+420 224 995 434
+420 224 995 456
+420 224 995 391
+361 235 5131
+361 373 2830
+361 235 5132
+361 373 2026
+361 235 5135
+48 22 330 6256
+48 22 330 6254
+48 22 330 6253
+48 22 330 6252
+48 22 330 6251
+40 3735 10424
+40 3735 10427
+40 3735 10433
+40 3735 10435
+40 3735 10436
+40 3735 10428
+40 3735 10429
+90 212 371 2540
+90 212 371 2535
+90 212 371 2534
+90 212 371 2533
+90 212 371 2536
+90 212 371 2531
Research Slovakia
Head: Maria Valachyova, (Fixed income)
+421 2 4862 4185
Treasury - Erste Bank Vienna
Saving Banks & Sales Retail
Head: Thomas Schaufler
Equity Retail Sales
Head: Kurt Gerhold
Fixed Income & Certificate Sales
Head: Uwe Kolar
Treasury Domestic Sales
Head: Markus Kaller
Corporate Sales AT
Head: Christian Skopek
+43 (0)5 0100 84225
+43 (0)5 0100 84232
+43 (0)5 0100 83214
+43 (0)5 0100 84239
+43 (0)5 0100 84146
Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales
Institutional Sales
Head: Manfred Neuwirth
Bank and Institutional Sales
Head: Jürgen Niemeier
Institutional Sales AT, GER, LUX, CH
Head: Thomas Almen
Bernd Bollhof
Rene Klasen
Marc Pichler
Dirk Seefeld
Charles-Henry de Fontenilles
Bank and Savingsbanks Sales
Head: Marc Friebertshäuser
Mathias Gindele
Andreas Goll
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Sven Kienzle
Manfred Meyer
Jörg Moritzen
Michael Schmotz
Bernd Thaler
Klaus Vosseler
Institutional Sales CEE and International
Head: Jaromir Malak
Central Bank and International Sales
Head: Margit Hraschek
Daniel Kihak Na
Fiona Chan
Christian Kössler
Institutional Sales PL and CIS
Head Piotr Zagan
Pawel Kielek
Institutional Sales Slovakia
Head: Peter Kniz
Sarlota Sipulova
Institutional Sales Czech Republic
Head: Ondrej Cech
Milan Bartos
Radek Chupik
Pavel Zdichynec
Institutional Sales Croatia
Head: Antun Buric
Natalija Zujic
Institutional Sales Hungary
Norbert Siklosi
Attila Hollo
Institutional Sales Romania
Head: Ciprian Mitu
Ruxandra Carlan
Institutional Solutions and PM
Head: Zachary Carvell
Brigitte Mayr
Mikhail Roshal
Christopher Lampe-Traupe
+43 (0)5 0100 84250
+49 (0)30 8105800 5503
+43 (0)5 0100 84323
+49 (0)30 8105800 5525
+49 (0)30 8105800 5521
+43 (0)5 0100 84118
+49 (0)30 8105800 5523
+43 (0)50100 84115
+49 (0)711 810400 5540
+49 (0)711 810400 5562
+49 (0)711 810400 5561
+43 (0)50100 85544
+49 (0)711 810400 5541
+43 (0)5 0100 83213
+49 (0)30 8105800 5581
+43 (0)5 0100 85542
+43 (0)5 0100 85583
+49 (0)711 810400 5560
+43 (0)50100 84254
+43 (0)5 0100 84117
+852 2105 0392
+852 2105 0396
+43 (0)5 0100 84116
+48 22 544 5612
+48 22 544 5610
+421 2 4862 5624
+421 2 4862 5629
+420 2 2499 5577
+420 2 2499 5562
+420 2 2499 5565
+420 2 2499 5590
+385 (0)7237 2439
+385 (0)7237 1638
+36 1 2355 842
+36 1 2355 846
+40 373 516 532
+40 373 516 531
+43 (0)50100 83308
+43 (0)50100 84781
+43 (0)50100 84787
+49 (0)30 8105800 5507
Page 24
6. August 2014
Disclaimer
Erste Group Bank AG
Group Research
1010 Wien, Börsegasse 14/DG1
Phone: +43 (0)5 0100 –
interior 11902
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by the Major Markets& Credit Research department within EG Research.
This report is for information purposes only.
Publications in the United Kingdom are available only to investment professionals, not private customers, as
defined by the rules of the Financial Services Authority. Individuals who do not have professional experience in
matters relating to investments should not rely on it.
The information contained herein has been obtained from public sources believed by EGB to be reliable, but
which may not have been independently justified. No guarantees, representations or warranties are made as to
its accuracy, completeness or suitability for any purpose.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or any
other action and will not form the basis or a part of any contract.
Neither EGB nor any of its affiliates, its respective directors, officers or employers accepts any liability
whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Any opinion, estimate or projection expressed in this
publication reflects the current judgement of the author(s) on the date of this report. They do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of EGB and are subject to change without notice. EGB has no obligation to update, modify or
amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any
opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. No assurance can be given that
any financial instrument or issuer described herein would yield favourable investment results.
EGB, its affiliates, principals or employees may have a long or short position or may transact in the financial
instrument(s) referred to herein or may trade in such financial instruments with other customers on a principal
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Possible conflicts of interest
Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest of EGB AG, its subsidiaries, affiliates and employees in respect to the
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Copyright: 2014 EGB AG. All rights reserved.
Page 25

Credit Markets – Covered Bonds/Financials

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