Moving Toward Reduced HIV Incidence: How the San Francisco
Transkript
Moving Toward Reduced HIV Incidence: How the San Francisco
Moving Toward Reduced HIV Incidence: How the San Francisco Experience Can Inform National HIV/AIDS Strategy Implementation Grant Colfax, MD Director of HIV Prevention and Research San Francisco Department of Public Health Talk Outline • Why San Francisco’s HIV prevention strategy is changing • What we are changing • How we will measure the effectiveness of our new approach • What interventions we will scale‐up • How NHAS is supporting local efforts HIV Prevalence, Selected Regions and Subgroups 35 30 Prevalence (%) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Adapted from: El‐Sadr, et al. NEJM, 2010 HIV Incidence, United States • HIV incidence peaked in 1984‐1985 at 130,000 infections/year • Approximately 53,600 new infections each year stable since 2000 • Incidence highest among MSM compared with other risk groups • 53% of new infections among MSM • 42 times higher compared with heterosexual men • Black MSM 9‐fold higher incidence compared with white MSM • Incidence stable among women since early 1990s • Approximately 20,000 new infections per year Hall, et al. JAMA, 2008 Relentless Inevitability of Infection among MSM 100% AA MSM 85% by 60 years HIV Prevalence 80% 60% 40% MSM 60% by 60 years 20% MSM 45% by 45 years 0% 20 25 30 35 40 Age 45 50 55 60 Stall, et al. AIDS Behav, 2009. San Francisco’s Endemics 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Gay men: Endemic Injection drug users: Endemic 2008 2007 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 Heterosexuals: Neither epidemic nor endemic McFarland, 2009 Strategy Goals and Targets for 2015 Reducing New HIV Infections • Lower the annual number of new infections by 25% Increasing Access to Care and Improving Health Outcomes for People Living with HIV • Increase the proportion of newly diagnosed patients linked to clinical care within three months of their HIV diagnosis from 65% to 85% Reducing HIV‐related Health Disparities • Increase the proportion of HIV diagnosed gay and bisexual men with undetectable viral load by 20% Strategy URL: http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/onap/nhas HIV Prevention 2011: From Plan to Practice • Vision: End new HIV infections in San Francisco • Goal: Reduce HIV incidence by 50% by 2017 • Resources to populations at greatest risk for HIV: • • • MSM (70‐79%) IDU (10‐20%) TFSM (5‐8%) www.sfhiv.org Prevention Indicators, San Francisco Parameters 2004‐5 (%) 2008‐9 (%) Among MSM, HIV test in last 12 mos. 65 71 Undiagnosed 24 20 Engaged in care 71 76 ART coverage (PWA) 74 92 Virologic suppression 52 75 Prevention Indicators, San Francisco 2008 MSM IDU HIV‐ HIV+ HIV‐ HIV+ Free condoms Free needles 79% 70% 67% 69% N/A N/A 76% 97% Individual counseling Group counseling 11% 16% 17% 16% 5% 11% 8% 16% Source: 2008 NHBS, HIV Epi Section, DPH Principles of San Francisco DPH’s New HIV Prevention Strategy • Efficient and effective use of limited resources • Prioritizing based on scientific data, community input, scalability, and cost • Emphasize case finding • HIV testing scale‐up • Reinforce interruption of transmission • Condoms, syringe distribution • Provide universal care and offer of treatment • Reduce viral load • Target intensive behavioral interventions • Substance use treatment • Determine the effectiveness of our approach • Population‐based monitoring What would be an optimal HIV population‐based indicator of success? • Marker of both prevention and treatment • Tells you where epidemic is in community • Helps target resources efficiently • Identifies disparities • Helps set goals for achieving health equity • Temporally upstream of new HIV infections • By the time you have an HIV case to report, you’ve failed to prevent that case Community Viral Load (CVL) • Population‐based measure of a community’s viral burden Virometer • Potential biologic indicator of the effectiveness of: • Antiretroviral treatment • HIV prevention Calculation of CVL • Used San Francisco’s comprehensive HIV/AIDS surveillance system • Calculated two measures of CVL: • Total: n tCVL mostrecentVL i1 n (mostrecentVL) • Mean: mCVL i 1 n Community Viral Load Results Overall San Francisco Sub‐groups Latino African‐American Women IDU MSM‐IDU Mean CVL* 23,348 N 12,512 N (%) (100) (%) Mean CVL* 1822 1825 786 1011 1791 (15) (15) (6) (8) (14) 26,744 26,404 27,614 33,245 36,261 *(p<0.001 by Kruskal‐Wallis test) in mean CVL by treatment history, race/ethnicity, age, gender, HIV transmission risk category, insurance status, and clinical status. Das, et al. 2010 Spatial Distribution of Total CVL by SF Neighborhood Das, et al. 2010 Spatial Distribution of Mean CVL by SF Neighborhood Das, et al. 2010 Mean CVL and New HIV Infections, 2004‐2008 935 (CI: 658, 1212) 792 (CI: 552, 1033) 25,000 Mean CVL copies/ml 1200 621 (CI: 462, 781) 20,000 15,000 600 523 10,000 518 400 434 5,000 200 0 Year 2004 (p= 0.028) 800 798 642 Mean CVL 1000 Number of HIV cases 30,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Newly diagnosed and reported HIV cases (Mean CVL & newly diagnosed HIV p=0.005) HIV Incidence (Mean CVL & HIV‐incidence p=0.3) Das, et al. 2010 Recommended Action Measure and utilize community viral load: Ensure that all high prevalence localities are able to collect data necessary to calculate community viral load, measure the viral load in specific communities, and reduce viral load in those communities where HIV incidence is high. CVL: New York & Washington D.C. Laraque, et al. CROI, 2011. Abstract #1024. Castel, et al. CROI, 2011. Abstract #1023. National HIV/AIDS Strategy Recommended Actions: Expand targeted efforts to prevent HIV infection and reduce HIV‐related disparities and health inequities Intensify HIV prevention efforts in the communities where HIV is most heavily concentrated. Allocate public funding to geographic areas consistent with the epidemic and to high‐risk populations. The following are scientifically proven approaches that reduce HIV transmission: • HIV testing (medical and community‐based) • HIV treatment (e.g. PEP, retention in care, treatment adherence, etc.) • Abstinence from sex or substance use; limit the number of partners and other steps to lower risk • Condom availability and distribution for prioritized populations • Access to sterile needles and syringes New Directions for SF HIV Prevention To reduce new HIV infections by 50% by 2017, the HIV Prevention Plan prioritizes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. HIV status awareness Prevention with positives Drivers of HIV (substance use) Structural change Syringe access Source: HPPC, 2010 San Francisco HIV Prevention Plan You are invited to the marriage of… & High Impact Combination Prevention A Tiered Approach Intensive Behavioral Interventions Treatment & Viral Suppression HIV Testing MORE COVERAGE MORE INTENSITY PEP Community‐Level Harm Reduction Frieden. AJPH, 2010. Test and Treat Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART combined: • 95% reduction in new HIV cases in 10 years Granich, et al. Lancet, 2009 Honoring the combination prevention approach… Coates. Lancet, 2008 … with a data‐supported increased emphasis on testing and treatment outcomes… INFECTIONS PREVENTED WITH “TEST AND TREAT” FOR SF MSM Year Tx <500 Tx All Text & Tx All 2014 1,554 2,169 2,810 2019 3,102 4,550 6,040 2029 4,940 8,221 12,189 PERCENT REDUCTION IN NEW INFECTIONS Year Tx <500 Tx All Test & Tx All 2014 42% 59% 76% 2019 42% 61% 81% 2029 33% 55% 81% Charlebois, Das, Porco, Havlir, et al. CID, 2011 HIV Status Awareness • What will be emphasized? • Scaled‐up testing models • • • • Routine testing for groups with high HIV prevalence Routine testing in medical settings Simplifying HIV test process and results notification Less counseling with HIV‐negative results • Expanded Partner Notification efforts by DPH • New efforts to detect acute HIV infection • Outcome goals: • • • • 30,000 HIV tests in DPH‐supported programs All persons at high‐risk for HIV are tested at least every 6 months New diagnosis > 1.2% at funded sites 90% of HIV‐positive persons are in care within 3 months of diagnosis The Need for More HIV Testing among High‐risk Groups in SF Behavioral Risk Populations At risk pop. size* % not tested past 6 Testing deficit, 6 mos.** mos. MSM 48,329 54% 26,098 IDU 14,609 58% 8,473 TFSM 1,880 N/A N/A Min. total additional tests needed every 6 months 34,571 *Based on Consensus Estimates, 2010 San Francisco HIV Prevention Plan **Source: National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) study, San Francisco data Testing in Social Networks: The Black Men Testing Project Legend HIV‐ = Blue Known HIV+ = Red New HIV+ = Green 38% of newly diagnosed cases referred by HIV+ MSM seeds Raymond, et al. AIDS Behav. In press. Detection of New HIV Infections: SF High‐risk Sites • City Clinic, Magnet, and AIDS Health Project 2007‐2009: • 32,494 HIV tests • 538 (1.66%) new HIV‐diagnosis • 14,544 specimens pooled for RNA testing • 54 (.37%) acute cases identified • Acutes account for 9% of all newly diagnosed Expanded Testing in Primary Care Settings • CDC‐funded initiative • Goal: Normalize routine HIV testing in medical settings • Implementation: • First year goal: 20,000 HIV tests at SFDPH medical sites • 14 clinics to scale‐up testing • Jumpstart support: disclosure assistance, provider training “offer script,” linkage to care, partner services Expanded Emergency Room Testing: San Francisco General Hospital 3,589 HIV negative 8 Not confirmed 44 Known positive 89 (2.4%) Preliminary positive 81 (2.1%) Confirmed positive 37 (1.0%) New positive July 08 ‐ Sep 09 3,768 Tests performed National HIV/AIDS Strategy Recommended Actions: Increasing access to care and improving health outcomes for people living with HIV and reduce HIV‐related disparities and health inequities To increase access to care and improve health outcomes, we must work to: • Establish a seamless system to immediately link people to continuous and coordinated quality care when they are diagnosed with HIV Recommended Actions: • • • • • Facilitate linkages to care Promote collaboration among providers Maintain people living with HIV in care Enhance client assessment tools and measurement of health outcomes Address policies to promote access to housing and supportive services for people living with HIV Prevention with Positives • What will be emphasized? • Increased PWP in HIV medical care settings • Focus on persons at high‐risk for transmitting HIV (high VL) • Models that address barriers to care, including stigma, fear, and discrimination. • Outcome goals: • All HIV‐positive persons in care are offered treatment • 90% of those on treatment have undetectable viral load Universal offer of ART in San Francisco “All patients, regardless of CD4 count, will be evaluated for initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART)” Decision to start ART made by the individual in conjunction with the provider ART and HIV‐1 Transmission Linked HIV‐1 Infection Person Years Rate 95% CI No ART 102 4,558 2.24 (1.84‐2.72) Initiated After ART 1 273 0.37 (0.09‐2.04) Initiation Adjusted* Relative Risk = 0.08 (95% CI 0.002, 0.57), p=0.004 *For time on study and CD4 count Donnell, et al. Lancet, 2010 We are doing well, but we can do better… • Of 15,836 reported HIV cases in San Francisco: • 24% did not have a CD4, VL or ART in prior year • 2,317 known to have a detectable VL • 241 known to have viral load >100k • Correlates of higher viral load are: • Transgender, homeless, IDU, African American, MSM‐IDU; four SF neighborhoods with lowest median incomes Source: SFDPH, 2011 HIV System Navigation: An Emerging Model to Improve HIV Care Access • Assist with engagement in care, adherence, retention • After one year with navigators: • % with undetectable viral load went from 34.8% to 53.1% (p<.01) • % with health insurance went from 79% to 91% (p=0.02) Bradford. AIDS Patient Care & STDs, 2007 Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations INDIVIDUAL PATIENT CHARACTERISTICS: PREDISPOSING FACTORS TRADITIONAL ‐Age ‐Gender ‐Ethnicity ‐Education ‐Health benefits ‐Perception of HIV risk ENABLING ‐Income ‐Insurance ‐Housing/transportation ‐Social support ‐Coping/self‐efficacy ‐Acceptance of diagnosis VULNERABLE ‐Immigration status ‐Sexual orientation ‐Incarceration history ‐Psychiatric illness ‐Substance abuse ‐Stigma NEED ‐Comorbitities/ opportunistic infections ‐Symptoms ‐Self‐perceived health status ‐HIV disease stage MEDIATORS/BEHAVIORAL OUTCOMES ‐Linkage (connection to HIV clinic) ‐Retention (appointment adherence) ‐ART adherence ‐Transmission risk acts ‐Psychological well‐being STRUCTURAL ENVIRONMENT METHODS OF TESTING SITE LINKAGE TO CARE ‐Diagnostic vs. screening ‐Passive vs. active ‐Targeted vs. nontargeted ‐Medical vs. ‐Pre‐counseled vs. medical not pre‐counseled ‐HIV clinic‐based ‐Medical vs. non‐medical ‐Length of follow up ‐Ambulatory vs. admitted ‐Intensity of effort CLINIC ‐Insurance compatibility ‐Appointment availability ‐Psychiatric treatment ‐Vouchers ‐Reminder phone calls ‐Ease of check‐in PROVIDER ‐Trust ‐Experience ‐Consensus BIOLOGIC OUTCOMES ‐CD4 reconstitution ‐Opportunistic infections ‐VL suppression ‐Death K. Christopoulos, et al. Adapted from Ulett, CID, 2011. Goal: Navigation Supports Continuum of Care and Improves Outcomes Median CD4 at HIV diagnosis Percent Virologic Suppression Median CD4 at ART initiation Time to ART Initiation Time to Virologic Suppression Testing Diagnosis Primary Care Linkage Medical Testing Testing Engagement / Retention Virologic Suppression HIV Engagement / Retention Mental Health Services Routine Community Treatment Linkage & Partner Services Substance Use Treatment Housing Support SFDPH Navigation Program Treatment Adherence Medical Case Management Das, et al. CROI, 2011 Health Outcome Metric 6 month, 12 month Virologic Suppression Rates (viral load <75 ) by Year of Diagnosis Das, et al. CROI, 2011 The Riskiest of the High‐risk: Trends in Substance Use among San Francisco MSM Drug Methamphetamine Cocaine Crack Poppers 2004 Use last 12 months 22% 17% 4% 20% 2008 Use last 12 months 13% 24% 4% 19% Source: NHBS, San Francisco Structural Change • San Francisco HIV Prevention Plan definition: “New or • modified programs, practices, or policies that are logically linkable to HIV transmission and acquisition and that can be sustained over time even when key actors are no longer involved.” Examples: Ending HIV Exceptionalism • • • HIV screening as standard of care in medical settings for persons at risk for HIV Changing laws to allow for electronic notification of HIV test results Eliminating requirement of written informed consent for testing in community settings The PrEP Puzzle Potential implementation will be complex — feasibility, sustainability, and acceptability need to be looked at outside of RCTs Achieving a More Coordinated Response to the HIV Epidemic Emphasis must be placed on coordination of activities among agencies • Increase the coordination of HIV programs across the Federal Government and between Federal agencies and State, territorial, local, and tribal governments. • Develop improved mechanisms to monitor and report on progress • Establish a seamless system to immediately link people to continuous and coordinated quality care Recommended Actions: • Ensure coordinated program administration • Promote equitable resource allocation • Streamline and standardize data collection • Provide rigorous evaluation of current programs • Provide regular public reporting 12‐City Initiative: Jumpstarting Local Efforts to Implement the NHAS NHAS Recommended Actions: Expand targeted efforts to prevent HIV infection using a combination of effective, evidence‐based approaches. • Abstinence from sex or drug use (or limiting the number of partners or other steps to lower risk) • HIV testing • Condom availability • Access to sterile needles and syringes • HIV treatment ECHPP Activities: SFDPH HIV Prevention Efforts: • Interventions for PLWHA (e.g. linkage to care, partner services, retention and engagement in care, treatment adherence) • Routine screening for HIV in clinical settings • HIV testing in non‐clinical settings • Condom distribution prioritized to target HIV‐positive persons and persons at highest risk • Access to sterile needles and syringes • Provision of PEP • Policies to support prevention efforts • • • • • • • • Implement Navigator System Expand testing in primary care Expand community‐based testing Expand condom distribution Support PEP Efforts Continue Syringe access Expanded partner notification Targeted use of surveillance data for prevention purposes • Implementation of named‐reporting system to monitor use and effectiveness of services Health Disparities: MSM HIV/STD Cases as Proportion of SF Male Population, 1999‐2008 Rate ratio MSM vs. male non‐MSM: 85.90 15.17 6.14 59.64 *Cumulative syphilis data from 2004‐2008 Sources: HIV Epidemiology Report 2009; SFDPH STD Annual Summary 2008 CDC Program Collaboration and Service Integration (PCSI) Initiative DPH Laboratory SFGH Laboratory HIV Health Services Health Disparities • Review the data and make recommendations so that DPH can maximize prevention opportunities by integrating service delivery. HIV Epidemiology HIV Prevention STD Prevention & Control Clinical Guidelines • Create comprehensive DPH guidelines regarding appropriate integration of prevention, screening and treatment for HIV/AIDS, viral hepatitis, STDs, and TB HIV Research TB Control Primary Care DPH Data Systems • Develop recommendations regarding integration of : 1) security and confidentiality standards to be used across all sections; and 2) data systems to ensure appropriate monitoring. Success: No HIV‐infected Infants Born in SF Since 2004 20 Number of Births 15 10 5 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year of Birth of Infant HIV Infected Seroreverted Status Unknown SF: The Proof of Concept Jurisdiction to Eliminate New HIV Infections • • • • • • • Strong community support and involvement Excellent data Well‐defined epidemic Relatively well‐resourced Good access to care and treatment Research driving programmatic decisions Strong political support Acknowledgments • HIV Prevention Planning Council • SFDPH: Kyle Bernstein, Susan Buchbinder, Moupali Das, Teri Dowling, Noah Carraher, Jonathan Fuchs, Albert Liu, Willi McFarland, Israel Nieves‐Rivera, Tracey Packer, Mark Pandori, Susan Phillip, Henry‐Raymond Fisher, Michaela Varisto • UCSF: Bradley Hare, Diane Havlir, Beth Kaplan, Diane Jones • University of Miami: Lisa Metsch • NIH • CDC A New HIV Diagnosis Reduces Risk Behavior Colfax, et al. AIDS, 2002 HIV Prevention Section Core Functions • Partners with HIV Prevention Planning Council (HPPC) • Emphasis on community‐based input and feedback to set priorities • Contracts with CBOs and other agencies to provide prevention programs • Allocates funding in accordance with distribution of HIV epidemic • Monitors and evaluates who we are reaching with prevention services • Runs condom distribution program • Supports agencies in delivery of prevention work • Oversees testing, counseling, and linkages to care • Assists agencies in delivery of interventions • Coordinates and implements health education initiatives • Conducts prevention research • Develops and tests new prevention interventions • Performs needs assessments of specific populations • Disseminates research findings to prevention providers and community members • Advocates for improved HIV prevention and treatment policy • Involves local, state, national stakeholders • Addresses both fiscal and legislative issues Transmission Rate: Measure of Annual Transmissions in Relation to HIV Prevalence • Current U.S. rate: 5 transmissions/100 persons living with HIV • NHAS goal: 3.5 by 2015 • Reproductive rate = (Tx/100) * D, where D= duration of infectiousness • Prevention goal: Reproductive rate below 1 Holtgrave, 2010 Calculated HIV Reproductive Rate at Various Transmission Rates and Levels of Years of Post‐infection Life Expectancy T(x) (Transmission Rate) Levels of Years of Post‐infection Life Expectancy 28.73 33.66 40.00 5.0 1.44 1.68 2.00 4.5 1.29 1.51 1.80 4.0 1.15 1.35 1.60 3.5 1.01 1.18 1.40 3.0 0.86 1.01 1.20 2.5 0.72 0.84 1.00 2.0 0.57 0.67 0.80 1.5 0.43 0.50 0.60 1.0 0.29 0.34 0.40 Threshold T(x) for Reproductive Rate = 1 3.48 2.97 2.50 Holtgrave. Public Health Rep, 2010 Estimated HIV Transmission Rates, San Francisco, 2006‐2008 HIV INCIDENCE PREVALENCE CRUDE TRANSMISSION RATE [per 100 Cases] Using Living Reported Incidence HIV/AIDS Cases Point Estimate Point Estimate 95% CI 2006 975 801‐1,082 15,099 6.46 5.30‐7.17 2007 792 552‐1,033 15,298 5.18 3.61‐6.75 2008 621 462‐782 15,597 3.98 2.96‐5.01 95% CI Data source: SFDPH HIV Surveillance 2008 Report SFDPH Comprehensive System of HIV Prevention and Care • HIV testing • Partner services • STD prevention • Addressing drivers and co-factors of HIV • Linkage to medical care and services • Risk reduction activities • Community mobilization efforts • Public information efforts • Condom distribution • Syringe access • PEP • STD and HIV treatment • Addressing Comorbidities • Core Surveillance • Incidence Surveillance • Medical Monitoring • NHBS • Vaccine studies • PrEP research • Natural history cohort • PWP studies • Strand Study • UNITY project • HIV drug resistance testing • Community viral load • Substance abuse research • Counseling studies HIV and STD Prevention HIV Care and Support Services Surveillance, Evaluation and Research Primary Care and Treatment • Linkage to medical care and services • Behavioral Health Services • Home Health Service • Non-medical case management • Food Bank / Home-delivered meals • Client Advocacy-related services • Emergency financial assistance • Legal services • Housing services • Oral health care • Outreach services • Engagement in care • Treatment Adherence • Centers of Excellence • Medical Case management • ADAP • Healthy SF • Community Health Care • HIV specialty medical care • City Clinic • SFDPH Treatment Guidelines • PHAST Team • STD and TB Nieves‐Rivera, UCHAPS 2010 Test and Treat Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART combined: • 95% reduction in new HIV cases in 10 years • HIV Incidence reduced from 15‐20,000 to 1,000 per million • Prevalence decreases to less than 1% by 2050 Granich, et al. Lancet, 2009 Ongoing and Upcoming Testing Research, HIV Prevention Section • STOP Study: Compares 3rd generation tests vs. 4th generation tests vs. RNA pooling • New diagnoses • Cost • Feasibility • Symptom‐driven screening for acute HIV • Collaborative effort with Pilcher, et. al. Prevention Indicators, San Francisco Parameters 2004 (%) 2009 (%) Among MSM, HIV test in last 12 mos. 65 HIV‐positive people unaware of status 24 15‐20 Engaged in care 71 76 ART coverage (PWA) 74 (2005) 92 Virologic suppression 52 (2005) 75 Outcomes of SF Partner Services, 2004‐2008 481 interviewed 419 partners named 263 (55%) did not name partners 56 (13%) not located 363 (87%) located 34 (9%) refused 16 (4%) OOJ 313 interviewed 95 (30%) HIV‐infected 200 (92%) of 212 remaining tested 44 (22%) of tested newly diagnosed HIV+ Marcus. AIDS, 2009. Is counseling efficacious in highest risk groups? Project AWARE • Evaluates the effect of pre‐test counseling on STI incidence • Secondary outcomes: Reduction of sexual risk behaviors • Cost and cost‐ effectiveness of counseling • SITES Columbia, SC Jacksonville, FL Los Angeles, CA Miami, FL San Francisco, CA Pittsburgh, PA Portland, OR Seattle, WA Washington, DC N = 5,000 STUDY DESIGN Recruitment and Enrollment STI Testing Baseline Assessment Randomization Risk‐reduction counseling with on‐site rapid HIV test Information with on‐site rapid HIV test STI testing repeated at 6 months ARRA funded Meta‐analysis of Behavioral Interventions for Methamphetamine use Colfax, et al. Lancet, 2010