Jane`s Defence Weekly

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Jane's Defence Weekly
Making the break
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The Scottish government's long-awaited White Paper on independence has brought more detail to
its defence and security plans, but as the 2014 referendum approaches, significant questions remain
unanswered. Matthew Bell reports
The future of the UK's
armed forces beyond September 2014 is shrouded in uncertainty and a kind of fear, not because of
war or civil conflict - or even the nation's dire finances - but because of a momentous decision that
could send shockwaves through the country for decades to come.
If the Scottish vote to become independent their new country will quickly need to plot its own
course in defence and security, while the remainder of the United Kingdom will be forced to reshape
its military with potentially far fewer soldiers and much less equipment.
The Scottish National Party's (SNP's) White Paper, published in November 2013, revealed a lot more
about what an independent Scottish force would look like, but has been criticised for unrealistic
expectations and an absence of crucial detail.
Defence co-operation with the rest of the UK has been assumed and would be essential, but its
nature and extent will depend on a myriad of interdependent factors, most of all the talks on
splitting debts and assets that would start after separation.
At issue is the future of the UK's security: its soldiers, a nuclear deterrent and a Scottish defence
industry that supports thousands of jobs and brings in billions of pounds each year. The stakes could
hardly be higher.
Force vision
The SNP has now settled on an annual defence budget of GBP2.5 billion (USD6.25 billion) and
therefore a defined scope for what it could afford, meaning that its White Paper raises two central
questions. Firstly, are the SNP's force expectations realistic, or are there political motivations behind
detailing its desired military structure, for example, to provide leverage in negotiations with
Westminster?
Secondly, if the plans are credible and Scotland actually gets the force the SNP desires, could it carry
out the tasks required: defending Scotland and taking part in foreign peacekeeping?
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A Scottish defence force, as envisioned by the SNP, would ensure the security of its borders and its
waters but also take part in chosen international missions as a card-carrying member of the United
Nations and the EU.
The SNP's White Paper sets out a desired military force comprising 15,000 regular personnel and
5,000 reserve personnel in a staged development over 10 years following independence. It also
details major platforms the SNP would seek to inherit from the UK. Most significantly, these include
12 Typhoon fighter aircraft (eventually rising to a possible 16), six Hercules C-130J transport aircraft,
two frigates, four mine countermeasures vessels and two ocean patrol vessels, as well as several
infantry and marine units to be claimed from the UK's existing force (see graphic/break-out box).
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0ne of the UK Royal Air Force's Typhoon unit's - 6 Squadron - is based at RAF Leuchars in Scotland.
The SNP would seek to inherit 12 Typhoon fighters from the UK if Scotland becomes independent.
(Eurofighter)
1398182
The SNP has made much of comparing a Scottish defence force to those of its Scandinavian
neighbours. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) compares the SNP's proposed budget to that of
Denmark (GBP2.8 billion), Finland (GBP2.3 billion) and Norway (GBP4.4 billion), as well as Croatia
(GBP0.6 billion), Ireland (GBP0.7 billion), and Slovakia (GBP0.6 billion).
However, it adds that, aside from Slovakia and Croatia, "none of these nations has had to contend
with the costs of becoming a newly separated state, including start-up costs".
Lord West, former first sea lord and security adviser to Gordon Brown during his premiership, is in
little doubt about the cogency of the SNP's plans.
"I think there are an awful lot of gaps there and I also think they're deluding their own people
because they won't be able to have the sort of forces they're talking about," he told IHS Jane's .
"I think they'll be much more like Ireland, which is down to about the GBP1 billion level of spending,"
he added. "The Irish forces have less troops available to deploy, and they've got no complex
warships at all, just some fishing protection-type ships."
Gemma Doyle, a Scottish MP and defence spokesperson for the pro-Union Better Together
campaign, told IHS Jane's that the SNP's plans lack detail and proper costings for the force it hopes
to put together.
[Continued in full version…]
Co-operation with the UK
On one point the SNP remains adamantly clear: it would keep the Queen as Scotland's head of state
and as commander in chief of its armed forces.
Keith Brown, Scotland's veterans minister, told IHS Jane's : "Her Majesty and Her successors to the
Crown would continue to enjoy the status and rights which attached to the Crown in Scotland
immediately before Independence Day." Whether any objections are raised to this insistence
remains to be seen.
The White Paper assumes varying degrees of co-operation with the remaining UK in several other
areas following separation, in everything from banking to defence and security. In part, the level of
co-operation will depend on how good-natured separation has been, but mainly on what the
Westminster government agrees to during negotiations on assets and ongoing support.
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Brown told IHS Jane's that an independent Scottish government would establish "core government
capacity for defence functions, such as strategic planning, oversight and policy functions for defence
and security" straight after separation.
Even so, he added that, "given the importance of ongoing shared security interests between
Scotland and the rest of the UK, we will ensure a partnership approach during the period of
transition to independence".
This need for continued collaboration opens up new areas of potential difficulty for a separate
Scotland, not least on the true level of defence independence a separate Scotland could ever
achieve.
Doyle said that if Scotland wanted continued collaboration with the UK "they should stay with the
UK rather than set up a new country, because when you do that you can't guarantee that they would
want to continue to collaborate".
"It would be more important for Scotland to collaborate with the rest of the UK than for the UK to
collaborate with Scotland; that would put Scotland on the back foot," she said. "The bottom line is
we just don't know what would happen."
Chalmers said that the more the case for independence is analysed, "the less substantial it becomes
and the more it relies on some kind of dependence with the UK". The more complicated a force
operated by Scotland, for example, the more it would be reliant on the UK.
Chalmers added that pilot training for the Typhoon aircraft Scotland wants to operate would be
carried out by the Royal Air Force (RAF), at least initially, while the SNP appears to assume that the
current private-sector support that already exists for the aircraft from the likes of BAE Systems
would remain in some shape after independence.
Set-up costs for new Scottish defence bodies could also be huge (see box), and appear to have been
little considered by the SNP, aside from plans to use Faslane as its naval base and an admission that
the build-up of manpower may need to be gradual.
Lord West said Scotland would have "a major training problem", in addition to having to set up its
own procurement and logistics operations.
[Continued in full version…]
Sharing troops
The SNP also bases its plans on an assumed inheritance of army units mainly recruited in Scotland,
with Brown believing that current personnel affected by separation "should be given a choice on the
armed forces in which they wish to serve".
"Just as individuals from many different nationalities serve in UK armed forces, so, too, would this
Scottish government welcome current UK service personnel into the future defence forces of an
independent Scotland," he added.
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However, the MoD said in November that "an independent Scottish state could not simply co-opt
existing units that are primarily recruited in Scotland, or based in Scotland".
"Similarly, individual members of the UK armed forces, in whatever units they serve, could not
simply be moved into the forces of a separate Scottish state," it said, although the option of
transferring between the two forces "would be a matter for negotiation".
Dependent on the outcome of talks, the UK would seem likely to accept Scottish troops into its
ranks, just as it does soldiers from Ireland and other countries.
NATO membership
The SNP is determined that a separate Scotland would be, or would become, a member of NATO,
despite the party's insistence that the UK should move its nuclear weapons from their current
Scottish base at Faslane.
This anti-nuclear stance runs against NATO's doctrine, causing serious doubt over Scotland's
potential NATO membership if independent, which in turn has led the SNP to gradually soften its
stance over recent months. It has now settled on a 'Don't ask, don't tell' policy, which means
nuclear-armed vessels from NATO countries would be able to use its ports on a confidential basis.
Brown said Scotland "would take our place as one of the many non-nuclear members of NATO" after
separation, but Doyle countered that the SNP "can't have it both ways".
"You can't on the one hand ask for a guarantee [against nuclear weapons] and have a 'Don't ask,
don't tell' policy," she said. "That's not the basis on which NATO operates."
[Continued in full version…]
Trident basing
The re-basing of the UK's Trident nuclear ballistic missiles has become one of the most contentious
elements of the independence debate, stubbornly argued by both sides as the SNP sticks to its antinuclear stance and the MoD puzzles over what it would do with its nuclear deterrent if forced to
move it.
In July Prime Minister David Cameron strongly denied a radical idea said to have been considered by
the MoD: designating the Faslane base as sovereign UK territory, giving it the same legal status as
British bases in countries like Cyprus.
The mere possibility brings home the huge significance of Scottish independence to the UK's
defence. Even if an alternative base were decided upon, moving Trident could take up to a decade
and would cost billions of pounds, according to Defence Secretary Philip Hammond.
The SNP has stuck firmly to non-specific language on the topic; Brown told IHS Jane's the party
would seek "the speediest safe removal" of Trident from Faslane.
Scottish Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested the UK's nuclear weapons may need to
be removed two years after independence, although Brown added that the SNP would aim for
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removal of Trident "within the first term of the Scottish Parliament following independence", which
would last four years following the 2016 poll.
Nuclear submarine HMS Vanguard arrives back at HM Naval Base Clyde, Faslane, Scotland, following
a patrol. The rebasing of Trident is a contentious element of the independence debate. (Crown
Copyright)
1454058
According to Chalmers, "it's not possible to relocate the nuclear weapon facilities from Scotland to
England or Wales in anything but the very long term", partly because the UK "would not accept
being denuclearised by Scottish independence".
[Continued in full version…]
Negotiations
The MoD admitted in November that a pro-independence vote in the referendum "would mark the
beginning of a lengthy and complex set of negotiations between the Scottish and UK governments
on the terms of independence.
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"Negotiations would have to take place on a whole range of matters across government, including
on assets and liabilities," it said, including the separation of armed forces, basing and potential cooperation.
However, despite the potential import of a vote favouring independence, the MoD says it is not
drawing up contingency plans on how to deal with separation because it has no mandate to do so; it
must simply continue to represent the interests of the UK as a whole.
In this wider context, the White Paper can be seen as "an initial negotiating position", said Chalmers.
"One of the debates would be, if they had a yes vote, possibly questioning whether they would really
want to retain these pretty high-technology assets or go back to the drawing board and buy
equipment more suitable to Scotland's forces," he added.
[Continued in full version…]
Jobs and industry
The future of Scotland's defence industry is one crucial factor where both sides have limited
influence.
The MoD estimates that Scotland's defence sector employs 12,600 people and accounts for sales of
over GBP18 billion per year (see box). Its industrial footprint ranges from the design, manufacture,
assembly and maintenance of complex warships to the latest high-technology innovations in
aerospace engineering, defence electronics and electro-optic systems.
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While the SNP has proposed building new Type 26 frigates on the Clyde for Scotland and the rest of
the UK, the idea was not met favourably by Westminster. (BAE Systems)
1448752
Defence firms in Scotland currently enjoy priority in UK procurement competitions due to an EU
exclusion relating to domestic defence procurement, but the MoD says companies based in an
independent Scottish state "would no longer be eligible for contracts that the UK chose to place or
compete domestically for national security reasons under an exemption from EU law".
"Where they could continue to compete, they would be bidding in a competitive international
market dominated by major economic powers," it added. "They would therefore see lower domestic
demand for defence goods and would lose the support to exports provided in key markets around
the world through the UK's considerable levels of international defence engagement."
Scottish industries stand to lose out on huge amounts of business if the UK government is right. The
MoD spent over GBP20 billion with UK industry in 2011/12 and in the 10 years from 2012/13 expects
to spend almost GBP160 billion on new equipment and data systems and their support.
A recent decision by BAE Systems to restructure its shipbuilding business may hold some sway over
the outcome of the referendum. In November the company cut 1,775 jobs in Scotland and the rest
of the UK, but decided to centre its main shipbuilding on the Clyde in Scotland, meaning it will end
500 years of British shipbuilding in Portsmouth.
[Continued in full version…]
Conclusion
The SNP's White Paper has brought much more detail to its defence plans although significant
doubts remain on what independence would really mean for jobs and industry, especially if the UK
maintained its current stance.
Gaps also remain in crucial costings and the viability of running major platforms, while the extent of
co-operation with the remaining UK after separation would perhaps be the most important factor
for both countries.
The SNP may yet have achieved its main purpose in outlining its planned inheritance, drawing lines
in the sand that might be moved in wider negotiations. However, for all the talk from both sides,
there is only one statement that really counts: the vote of the Scottish people in September 2014.
THE SCOTTISH DEFENCE FORCE - AS ENVISAGED BY THE NOVEMBER 2013 WHITE PAPERAt the
point of independence:
Maritime forces
One naval squadron to secure Scotland's maritime interests and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and
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contribute to joint capability with partners in Scotland's geographical neighbourhood, consisting of:
- two frigates from the Royal Navy's current fleet;
- a command platform for naval operations and development of specialist marine capabilities (from
the Royal Navy's current fleet, following adaptation);
- four mine countermeasures vessels from the Royal Navy's current fleet;
- two offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) to provide security for the 200 nautical mile EEZ. However, as
the Royal Navy currently only has four OPVs, a longer lead time for procurement might be necessary;
- four to six patrol boats from the Royal Navy's current fleet, capable of operating in coastal waters,
providing fleet protection and also contributing to securing borders;
- auxiliary support ships (providing support to vessels on operations), which could be secured on a
shared basis initially with the rest of the UK.
These arrangements will require around 2,000 regular and at least 200 reserve personnel.
Land forces
An army HQ function and an all-arms brigade, with three infantry/marine units, equipped initially
from a negotiated share of current UK assets and supported by:
- a deployable brigade HQ;
- two light armoured reconnaissance units;
- two light artillery units;
- one engineer unit deploying a range of equipment for bridging, mine clearance and engineering
functions;
- one aviation unit operating six helicopters for reconnaissance and liaison;
- two communication units;
- one transport unit;
- one logistics unit;
- one medical unit.
Special forces and explosive ordnance disposal teams will bring the total to around 3,500 regular and
at least 1,200 reserve personnel.
Air forces
Key elements of air forces in place at independence, equipped initially from a negotiated share of
current UK assets, will secure core tasks, principally the ability to police Scotland's airspace, within
NATO.
- an air force HQ function (with staff embedded within NATO structures);
- Scotland will remain part of NATO's integrated Air Command and Control (AC2) system, initially
through agreement with allies to maintain the current arrangements while Scotland establishes and
develops its own AC2 personnel and facility within Scotland within five years of independence;
- a quick reaction alert (QRA) squadron incorporating a minimum of 12 Typhoon jets based at
Lossiemouth;
- a tactical air transport squadron, including around six Hercules C-130J aircraft and a helicopter
squadron;
- flight training through joint arrangements with allies.
In total this would require around 2,000 regular personnel and around 300 reserve personnel.
Five years after independence:
Maritime forces
A second naval squadron to contribute to NATO and other operations outside home waters,
incorporating the naval command platform, plus:
- a further two frigates with tanker and support ship capacity;
- maritime forces to comprise 2,400 regular and at least 270 reserve personnel.
Land forces
[Continued in full version…]
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MINISTRY OF DEFENCE PRIME CONTRACTORS WITH SITES IN SCOTLANDBabcock directly employs
nearly 4,800 people in Scotland, including over 3,100 in its Marine and Technology Division's work at
Clyde and Rosyth.
BAE Systems employs around 3,600 staff in Scotland, including 3,000 on naval ship work mainly at
Scotstoun and Govan but also at Rosyth supporting the assembly of the Queen Elizabeth-class
aircraft carriers, as well as employing staff at Hillend and at its regional aircraft division at Prestwick.
Rolls-Royce employs over 2,100 people in Scotland in East Kilbride, Inchinnan, Thurso and
Dunfermline.
Selex ES directly employs over 1,900 people at its Edinburgh site hosting hi-tech capabilities for
defence and security system applications based on airborne radar, advanced laser and electro-optic
systems.
[Continued in full version…]
Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2014
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