here - Club of Rome

A FINER FUTURE
IS POSSIBLE
How humanity can avoid system
collapse and craft a better economic
system
June 2016 : A report by Hunter Lovins, Anders Wijkman, John
Fullerton, Stewart Wallis, Graeme Maxton
With the generous support of the KR Foundation, Denmark
“WE ARE CALLED TO BE ARCHITECTS OF
THE FUTURE, NOT ITS VICTIMS.”
– Buckminster Fuller
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Is it possible to stop climate change and the rapid rate of
environmental destruction, while reducing inequality, in a world so
dependent on continuous economic growth?
Not without radical change. A successful transition requires a new
cultural story, one where humanity lives in harmony with nature, and
today's social tensions are greatly reduced.
But this will take many years because a number of barriers need to be
overcome. Given the seriousness of the social and environmental
problems, it would take too long to avoid collapse.
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (CONT.)
So society needs to buy time. It can do this by moving towards a
circular economy and by transforming the economic system gradually,
by restructuring finance and business, shifting to renewable energy,
reforming food production and redefining the nature of work, to
generate jobs and guarantee livelihoods.
The technology and understanding to make these changes already
exists. It is a question of social and political will.
4
INTRODUCTION
Climate change, rising inequality and environmental impact show how
urgently we need a more sustainable model of social and economic
development. But is it actually possible to change the economic
system without collapse?
To answer this question, the Club of Rome commissioned an
interdisciplinary and international group of experts to develop a
comprehensive framework for change.
The underlying assumption is that the dominant global economic
system, focused on continuous economic growth, unlimited levels of
consumption, and minimal regulation needs to change. But change is
hard.
5
INTRODUCTION (CONT.)
Humanity is on an economic treadmill, which requires ever-rising
throughput of resources, and which is creating environmental
destruction while also widening social divisions. In short, the current
economic system is moving human society towards an eventual
collapse.
This project has been established to see if there is a better way
forward, to shift our economic world onto a better - though not
necessarily ideal – long term foundation.
6
METHODOLOGY
This report was developed in three stages. In the first stage, a group of
more than 20 internationally renowned experts on climate change,
economics, the media, finance, population, environment degradation,
project planning and other relevant areas were invited to Sweden for
three days in May 2015 to develop the methodology to be used for this
project, define the key issues for analysis and a working hypothesis,
identify data gaps, define the workplan and draft the report outline. A
steering committee was appointed.
During the second stage, the committee commissioned a number of
international experts to provide insight into issues such as an energy
transition, reforming the finance sector and sustainable agriculture,
where additional insight was needed. The results of this work were
then built into the report.
7
METHODOLOGY (CONT.)
Once a draft report was completed, it was peer-reviewed by a wide
range of experts, mostly within the Club of Rome. The entire report is
now being converted into a book for publication in 2017.
8
CONCLUSIONS
1. The human world faces civilizational collapse with widespread
environmental and social consequences, many already obvious.
2. The conditions for this were created by human activity and can be
undone by human actions.
3. To avoid collapse, we need to embrace a new cultural story, one
where humanity lives in harmony with nature and where social
tensions are drastically reduced.
4. As this new story will take several years to implement we need a
strategy to survive in the short-term and buy time.
9
CONCLUSIONS (CONT.)
5.
Buying time will work only if it is accompanied by reforms in the
sectors of finance and business, agriculture, energy and the
nature of work.
6.
We will also need to overcome a number of significant hurdles
that hinder change, some of which are political.
7.
A finer future is possible. We already have the understanding and
the technologies to make a successful transformation. It is a
question of political and societal will, as well as time.
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CONTENT
1.
The world today………………………………………………….......13
2.
How did we get here?...................................................................20
3.
Telling a better story………………………………………………….29
4.
Buying time to make the shift……………………………………….38
5.
The key elements of a better economic system…………………..43
6.
What is stopping us making the change?.....................................64
7.
A finer future is possible……………………………………………..68
11
1
THE WORLD TODAY
1
IN 1972 THE LIMITS TO GROWTH ALSO WARNED OF
COLLAPSE
In 1972, the Club of Rome rose to prominence with the publication of
The limits to growth. Based on work done at MIT the book presented
12 scenarios for the future, and found that in every case but one (the
sustainability scenario) humanity faced collapse.
This modeling was brought up to date in Graham Turner’s report, “Is
Collapse Imminent?” and verified that humanity has continued on the
Business As Usual (BAU) trend line, warning that, “the BAU scenario
results in collapse of the global economy and environment (where
standards of living fall at rates faster than they have historically risen
due to disruption of normal economic functions), subsequently forcing
population down.”
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1972). The limits to growth. New York, 102.
Turner, G. (2014). Is global collapse imminent? MSSI Research paper, 4, 21.
13
1
IN 1972 THE LIMITS TO GROWTH ALSO WARNED OF
COLLAPSE (CONT.)
The dotted lines in the
graph show the “business
as usual” scenario we
have actually experienced.
Use of resources grows,
population rises, availability of non-renewable
resources begins to fall
until, at some point,
around the mid-2030s,
there is collapse. The solid
lines on the graph are the
actual data from the time
The limits to growth was
published until 2000.
Strauss, M. (2012). Looking Back on the Limits of Growth. Smithsonian Magazine.
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1
HUMANITY ALREADY EXCEEDS SEVERAL PLANETARY
BOUNDARIES AND IS CLOSE TO MANY MORE
According to the Global Footprint
Network, humanity currently live as if it
had 1.5 planets and concludes that this
can only continue for a short time before
the system forces a return to
equilibrium.
Rockström et al has identified nine
"planetary life support systems" or
boundaries (see picture) essential for
human survival. They found that we
have already crossed four of these:
climate change, biosphere integrity,
land-system change, and
biogeochemical cycles (phosphorus and
nitrogen cycle).
Rockström, et al. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature,461(7263), 472-475.
Steffen, et al. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223), 1259855.
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1
AS A CONSEQUENCE, MAJOR ECOSYSTEMS ARE
FACING TIPPING POINTS
A number of the Earth’s ecosystems are approaching "tipping points"
where their ecosystem services will be disrupted. Three are at
particular risk: coral reefs, the Amazon and the oceans.
• Climate change is expected to kill the world's coral reefs progressively and
perhaps as early as 2030.
• The Amazon is drying and facing decay, with the release of large quantities
of greenhouse gases.
• The oceans are acidifying, risking species loss on a large scale.
The Convention on Global Biodiversity warns: "We continue to lose
biodiversity at a rate never before seen in history—extinction rates
may be up to 1,000 times higher than the historical background rate.”
Hirsch, T. (2010). Global biodiversity outlook 3. UNEP/Earthprint.
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1
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY
CLEAR
“Climate change is no longer some far-off problem. It is happening
now…disrupting our agriculture and ecosystems, our water and food
supplies, our energy, our infrastructure, human health, human safety...
few things will disrupt our lives as profoundly.” President Obama
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Summary for Policymakers.Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.
17
1
… AND THE SITUATION WILL WORSEN FOR MANY
DECADES, NO MATTER WHAT WE NOW DO
Early aggressive climate action (left) minimizes future warming. Continued
inaction (right) results in catastrophic levels of warming, 6°C over much of
the world. All we can do is limit the pace of change.
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
18
1
SOCIALLY THERE ARE BIG PROBLEMS TOO: THERE
IS EXTREME AND WIDENING INCOME INEQUALITY
Just the wealth of 62 people is
equal to the wealth of the
poorest 3.5 billion. The richest
1% have more wealth than the
other 99%.
This brings a growing risk of
social unrest. The pursuit of
economic growth, which many
think is the way to narrow this
gap, and also to reduce global
poverty is incompatible with
staying within planetary
boundaries. It would increase
resource use and energy
demands even more.
OXFAM. (2016). An Economy For the 1%. Available at: https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bp210economy-one-percent-tax-havens-180116-en_0.pdf
19
2
HOW DID WE GET
HERE?
1
COLLAPSE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO AVOID
In 2010, NASA funded the Human And Nature DYnamical Study
(HANDY) Study: “Is Industrial Civilization Headed for Irreversible
Collapse?”
The study found that two features have played a central role in the
process of all cases of civilization collapse over the last five thousand
years:
1. “...the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the
ecological carrying capacity; and
2. ...the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and
Masses (or "Commoners) [poor]."
The study concluded that “under conditions closely reflecting the
reality of the world today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid.”
Motesharrei, S., Rivas, J., & Kalnay, E. (2014). Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in
the collapse or sustainability of societies. Ecological Economics, 101, 90-102.
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2
HUMANITY CREATED THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT US HERE
The dominant economic system is built on the notion of growth in GDP,
which, as presently organised, requires an ever-higher throughput of
energy and materials. This dynamic lies at the root of our social and
environmental problems. GDP is a quantitative indicator and says
nothing about the qualitative dimensions of growth.
In the last 50 years, the rise in the human population and a more
extreme version of the free-market economic thinking, has made the
situation worse. In 1947 Ludwig von Mises, Fredrick Hayek, Milton
Friedman and 33 other prominent economists formed the Mont Pelerin
Society which established the intellectual foundation of today's extreme
sort of neo-liberalism, the ideology that underpins most national
economic policies, even those nominally labeled otherwise.
22
2
…WHERE SHORT TERM PROFIT AND MATERIAL
WEALTH ARE PURSUED
Neo-liberalism holds that government interference is undesirable, that
markets should be minimally regulated and that individual freedom is
paramount. Proponents believe that strong property rights, little
government interference and free trade are the best institutional
means through which liberty and freedom can be achieved.
These ideas have led to a widespread conviction that the only
legitimate goal of business is to maximize shareholder value in the
short term. Any other action by a company is seen as philanthropy,
which comes at the expense of corporate owners.
To maintain economic growth, and so output, modern society seeks to
meet non-material needs with material goods, celebrating
consumerism. Conversely, if humanity stops consuming, the economy
falls into a recession, with rising unemployment and even wider
inequality.
23
2
…WHERE SHORT TERM PROFIT AND MATERIAL
WEALTH ARE PURSUED (CONT.)
So wealth and success are measured in dollars and Simon Kuznet’s
gross domestic product (GDP) is viewed as the hallmark of national
achievement.
Neo-liberals believe that maximizing individual utility (in this case
through material wealth) ensures the maximization of total social utility.
Proponents of this worldview see inequality as both acceptable and
inevitable.
24
2
SINCE 1980 NEO-LIBERALISM HAS BEEN THE
DOMINANT ECONOMIC IDEOLOGY
With the election in the US of
Ronald Reagan, and of
Margaret Thatcher in the UK,
the ideology of neo-liberalism
came to domination.
Members of the Mont Pelerin
Society have advised many
heads of state and their
influence remains strong.
Their thinking still dominates
teaching in universities and
many leading advisory groups
and think-tanks
Picture: Friedrich Hayek from the Mont Pelerin
society meets with US President Ronald Reagan
Mont Pelerin Society. (2015). Friedrich Hayek. Available at https://www.montpelerin.org/f-a-hayek/
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2
ENDING THE DOMINANCE OF EXTREME NEOLIBERALISM IS POSSIBLE
Neo-liberalism has only dominated global economic thinking for 35
years. So we know it is possible to change the dominant economic
philosophy.
Advanced western economies have actually experienced two major
economic transformations in the last 100 years.
• From the 1930s to the late 1970s Keynesianism, with its emphasis on the
management of markets and the provision of social safety nets and social
security, dominated.
• Since the late 1970s neo-liberalism, with its focus on individualism and freemarkets, has dominated.
26
2
IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC SYSTEM
Shifts in economic thinking during the 20th century occurred because
advocates of the new system discredited the old system or story. They
created a new story, weakened existing power bases and constructed
new power bases.
The neo-liberals created and disseminated a message that rested on
four principles: small government, free markets, freedom of the
individual and strong defence. These have been continually repeated
and become embedded in global thinking.
The task facing humanity now is to create a compelling new story and
a powerful movement for a new economic system based on different
values, such as strengthening human dignity, promoting the common
good and good stewardship of nature.
27
2
A UNIVERSAL MOVEMENT AND POLITICAL ACCEPTANCE ARE NEEDED FOR A SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION
For there to be a change to a better system, social and political leaders
throughout would need to demand change.
To do this they need to understand that change is both possible and
desirable, that it would lead to a better outcome. They need to see a
better way forward.
New power bases and political movements operating at all levels of
society, would also be needed – local, national, regional and,
eventually, global.
These would consist of collaborating networks from civil society, from
research and policy communities, from business, from faith groups,
from cultural groups, and from new economics practitioners. Such
groups are needed to fuel and sustain change.
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3
TELLING A BETTER
STORY
3
WE NEED TO COMMUNICATE AN ALTERNATIVE
ECONOMIC SYSTEM AND TELL A BETTER STORY
William Allen, former Chancellor of the Delaware Court of Chancellery,
noted: “One of the marks of a truly dominant intellectual paradigm is
the difficulty people have in even imagining an alternative view.”
Neo-liberalism is not a set of natural laws. Neo-liberalism is our
creation, and it is constantly evolving and changing – consciously or
subconsciously.
What is needed is an alternative view, one that is sustainable and
desirable to the democratic majority, and to those they elect.
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3
THIS SHOULD SEEK TO MAXIMISE HUMAN WELLBEING WITHIN PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
A better story needs to explain how a new economic system would:
• Redistribute income and wealth more fairly
• Meet basic needs of all people on earth
• Allow natural systems to recover and prosper
• Promote long-term thinking and investment
• Maintain a strong economy
• Ensure democratic economic governance and diverse and equitable access
to resources.
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3
A SUSTAINABLE AND FAIR ECONOMIC SYSTEM, IN
OTHER WORDS
Humanity must operate
within planetary boundaries
and also ensure human wellbeing and dignity. We need a
“safe and just operating
space for humanity.”
A rising population - in
combination with wasteful
lifestyles among the rich - will
make it increasingly difficult
to respect the planetary
boundaries. Affluent lifestyles
must be curbed and efforts
made to limit the growth of
population.
Raworth, K. (2013). Doughnut Economics. Available at http://www.kateraworth.com/doughnut
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3
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO IMPROVE HUMAN WELLBEING AND REDUCE THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
Just under two on the horizontal axis represents one planet living. If we
are all to live within planetary boundaries, countries need to move to the
top left through decoupling. Currently, many countries are doing the
opposite - increasing their footprint and reducing average wellbeing.
Jeffrey, K., Wheatleym, H. & Abdallah, S. (2016). The happy planet index 2016 report. A global index of sustainable well-being,
p.15. Available at http://www.neweconomics.org/projects/entry/happy-planet-index
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3
WE NEED TO STOP BOOSTING GDP FOR ITS OWN
SAKE
Maximizing well-being (feeling well on long-term basis) is key to
freeing humankind from the current consumption-based treadmill
which is so destructive to the planet.
Secure employment and the economic stability matter more to
people’s wellbeing than rate of economic growth in any case.
It is still possible to have economic growth however, as this is a
measure of value. But humanity should not seek economic growth for
its own sake.
Society should focus on reducing the ecological footprint until it is in
balance with nature, and sustainable.
Berry, C. (2014). Wellbeing in Four Policy Areas Report by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Wellbeing Economics. London: New
Economics Foundation.
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3
THE PLANET NEEDS TO COME FIRST BECAUSE THIS
IS WHAT MAKES LONG TERM SENSE
In the current economic system, planetary resources are used to
develop economic wealth. This then flows largely to the rich and the
finance sector. Investment and rewards have a short term focus.
A sustainable system turns this around. The finance sector supports
the economy which is run sustainably for the benefit of the majority,
operates for the long term and exists in balance with the planet
Current system
Better system
Finance Sector
Planet
Economy
Economy
Planet
Finance Sector
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3
HUMANITY NEEDS BETTER ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES…
Current economic system
Better economic system
GDP growth: more economic activity
the aim
‘Beyond GDP’: prosperity the aim
Short-termism
Long-termism
Maximisation of return
Safeguarding of long-term incomes
Shareholder value
Stakeholder value: benefit to society
Extraction of natural resources
Management of natural resources
Linear production systems
Circular production systems
Short-life products for sale
Long-life services
Efficiency measured in monetary terms Multidimensional efficiency (e.g. multi(CBA)
criterion analysis, MCA)
36
3
…AND A REGENERATIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEM
Nature does not set out to be sustainable but achieves it because it is
regenerative. If the economic system is to prosper long term, it must
operate like nature; regeneratively.
Fullerton, J. (2015). Regenerative capitalism: how Universal Principles And Patterns Will Shape Our New Economy., p.43 Available
at http://capitalinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-Regenerative-Capitalism-4-20-15-final.pdf
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4
BUYING TIME TO
MAKE THE SHIFT
TO CREATE A BETTER ECONOMIC SYSTEM AND
AVOID COLLAPSE, WE HAVE TO BUY TIME
4
PROSPECTS FOR HUMANITY
Given the seriousness of the environmental and social problems, it
would take too long to gain widespread acceptance of a better story
and implement a better economic system. We would not avoid
collapse. So humanity needs to buy time during the transition.
TIME
Club of Rome, 2016
39
4
A CIRCULAR ECONOMY CAN HELP BUY TIME BY
INCREASING RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
In a circular economy, products are designed for ease of recycling,
reuse, disassembly and remanufacturing. It replaces the traditional,
linear ’take, make & dispose’ model that has dominated the economy
so far, and promotes efficient energy and resource use.
Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2013). Towards the circular economy, p.25. Available at https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/
assets/downloads/publications/ Ellen-MacArthur-Foundation-Towards-the-Circular-Economy-vol.1.pdf
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4
A CIRCULAR ECONOMY CAN REDUCE EMISSIONS,
CREATE JOBS AND IMPROVE THE TRADE BALANCE
Every effort must be made to reduce the pressure on the natural resource
base. By doing so we can avoid looming resource constraints, limit
ecosystem decline and reduce carbon emissions.
A recent study by the Club of Rome analyzed the impact of a circular
economy on carbon emissions, job opportunities and the trade balance in
five European countries.
It assumed 1) increasing the renewable portion in the energy mix by
cutting fossil fuel use by 50%; 2) enhancing energy efficiency by 25%, and
3) enhancing material efficiency by 25 % by replacing 50% of virgin
materials with secondary materials and doubling the life-time of long-lived
consumer products.
The results showed that a circular economy would lead to a reduction in
carbon emissions by roughly 2/3, a significant increase in the numbers of
jobs, and reduced trade imbalances. It makes sense within the existing
economic system, in other words, and so would aid a transition.
Wijkman, A. & Skånberg, K. (2015). Circular Economy and social benefits. Available at http://www.clubofrome.org/wpcontent/uploads/2016/03/The-Circular-Economy-and-Benefits-for-Society.pdf
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4
HOWEVER, WISE POLICIES WILL STILL BE NEEDED
TO PROVIDE THE RIGHT INCENTIVES
The following policies are needed to move towards a circular
economy:
• Targets for material as well as energy efficiency
• Mandatory targets for use of secondary materials
• Design requirements for products
• Tax on waste incineration
• Tax shift: lower taxes on labor, higher taxes on resources
• No VAT on recycled materials
• Material efficiency as a key priority in climate change mitigation and
adaptation strategies
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5
THE KEY
ELEMENTS OF A
BETTER ECONOMIC
SYSTEM
5
DURING THE TRANSITION TO A BETTER SYSTEM.
SOCIETY WILL NEED TO REFORM KEY SECTORS
Buying time only makes sense if it is accompanied by fundamental
reforms of many economic sectors but primarily:
•Finance and business
•Agriculture
William Gibson
•Energy
•The nature of work
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5
FINANCE AND BUSINESS
45
5
IN FINANCE, THE EXPECTATIONS OF CAPITAL
MARKETS AND INVESTORS NEED TO BE MODIFIED
According to the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, the
global economy requires around $90 trillion for infrastructure
investment in cities, energy, and land-use systems over the next 15
years as well as investment in the transition to a low carbon economy,
if we are to stay within the limit of a 2 C global warming.
The scale of this investment and the urgency of transition argue for
quick and radical financial sector reform.
In many countries banks are overly focused on investing in nonproductive and speculative assets. Both structural and incentive
changes (how banks are rewarded) can stop this. Quantitative easing,
by printing money and using it for green energy development, for
example, would be a powerful way to build a zero carbon economy.
The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. (2014). Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report: the
Global Report. Available at http://newclimateeconomy.report/2014/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/NCE-Global-Report_web.pdf
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5
A REFORMED BUSINESS SECTOR REQUIRES
RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES
‘Quarterly Capitalism’ drives continuous growth and ecological
overshoot. It contributed to the financial crisis too, as banks took on
too much debt to boost returns. Relatively simple remedies include:
• Differential voting rights for shares held for different periods
• Taxation of short term returns
• Shift from a shareholder to a stakeholder economy (one that includes
employees, society and the environment, for example)
• Reform of the private limited company to make it more accountable
• Business charter renewal is based on environmental performance
• Putting major environmental liabilities on company balance sheets.
• New investment methods (rather than just debt and equity) and the ending of
tax exemptions for debt.
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5
THESE CHANGES WILL HELP SLOW CLIMATE
CHANGE
If the business and finance sector put less store on continuously rising
quarterly earnings, resources are taxed rather than labor and the
environment is properly valued, business and investment priorities will
change.
Changes in investment priorities will help slow the pace of climate
change. Christiana Figueres from UNFCCC noted "Where capital goes
over the next 15 years is going to decide whether we’re actually able to
address climate change and what kind of a century we are going to
have.”
This is made easier in some cases because many sectors are
competitively concentrated. Nearly two-thirds of carbon dioxide &
methane emissions can be attributed to just 90 companies, for
example.
Heede, R. (2014). Tracing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers, 1854–2010.
Climatic Change, 122(1-2), 229-241
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5
AGRICULTURE
49
5
THE CURRENT INDUSTRIALIZED APPROACH TO
FARMING IS FAILING HUMANITY IN MANY WAYS
The world’s cultivated soils have lost between 50 and 70 percent of
their original carbon stock. This serious degradation not only makes it
difficult for soils to carry out their many functions (like filtering and
storing fresh water and crop nutrients), it means that what was once
soil carbon has been oxidized upon exposure to air and is now CO2.
The existing approach is
not working in other ways:
Modern industrial
agriculture has not ended
hunger.
The current system is
increasingly vulnerable to
climate change too.
Schwartz, J. D. (2014). Soil as Carbon Storehouse: New Weapon in Climate Fight. Yale Environment, 360.
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5
WE NEED TO SHIFT FROM INDUSTRIAL
AGRICULTURE TO HOLISTIC LAND MANAGEMENT
Both developing and developed countries need a major shift in
agricultural development: from a "green revolution" to a "truly
ecological intensification" approach. This implies a rapid and
significant shift from conventional, monoculture-based and high
external-input-dependent industrial production towards sustainable,
regenerative production systems that would improve the productivity of
small-scale farmers.
We need to see a move from a linear to a holistic approach in
agricultural management, which recognizes that a farmer is not only a
producer of agricultural goods, but also a manager of an agroecological system that provides quite a number of public goods and
services (e.g. water, soil, landscape, energy, biodiversity, and
recreation).
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2013). Trade and Environment Review 2013. Available at
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditcted2012d3_en.pdf
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HOLISTIC LAND MANAGEMENT CAN RETURN
CARBON TO THE SOIL
Holistic land management rehabilitates habitats by reducing
overgrazing and erosion and enhancing natural processes, such as
nutrient and water cycling. As a result, land productivity increases,
generating higher cattle production rates of up to 50 percent, while
sequestering tons of carbon.
Webster, K. (2015). The Circular Economy: A wealth of flows. Ellen MacArthur Foundation Publishing.
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ENERGY
53
5
TO AVOID CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE THERE
NEEDS TO BE AN ENERGY TRANSITION
“There are no technological or economic barriers to converting the
entire world to clean, renewable energy sources. It is a question of
whether we have the societal and political will.” Mark Jacobson,
Director, Atmosphere Energy Program Stanford University
Illustrative energy transition
Singer, S. (2010). The energy report: 100% renewable energy by 2050, p11. Available at:
http://assets.panda.org/downloads/101223_energy_report_final_print_2.pdf
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RENEWABLES ARE ALREADY REPLACING
CONVENTIONAL ENERGY IN MANY PLACES
Renewable power is expanding fast; it now represents more than 45%
of overall supply additions. In contrast, the share of nuclear in the
global energy mix is stable while the share of coal has decreased.
According to the International Energy Agency, by 2040, renewable
power will reach a share of 50% in the European Union, around 30%
in China and Japan, and above 25% in the United States and India. By
contrast, coal will account for less than 15% of electricity supply
outside Asia.
Photo credit: Activ Solar, 2012
International Energy Agency. (2015). Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015. Available at
https://www.iea.org/bookshop/708-Medium-Term_Renewable_Energy_Market_Report_2015
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SOLAR WILL SOON BE CHEAPER THAN GRID
ELECTRICITY
Solar energy is expected to achieve grid parity in 80% of global
markets by 2017.
O'Rourke, S., Kim, P., & Polavarapu, H. (2007). Solar photovoltaics. Technology and Economics: Thin Film and Crystalline Silicon.
Deutsche Bank, North America.
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SO AN ENERGY TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE
Meeting the IPCC’s conditions for there to be a 66% chance to stay
below a 2 C rise in average global temperatures (Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 on the graph) is possible if society:
•Is fossil free by 2100
•There are negative
emissions during the last
40years of the century
•We develop the technology
to capture this carbon in
sufficient quantities
Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., & Le Quéré, C. (2014). Betting on negative emissions.
Nature Climate Change, 4(10), 850-853.
57
5
AND THE STEPS ARE CLEAR
Energy efficiency: In the transport, buildings and industry sectors
energy demand needs to be reduced by 25% more than the IPCC
baseline by 2050.This will require regulation, innovation and improved
planning
Energy transition: low carbon energy needs to rise from around 15%
in 2010 to roughly 60% by 2050 and then close to 90% by the end of
the century.
Increased electrification: society needs to quit virtually all forms of
fossil fuel use by electrifying everything that can be (cars, heating,
cooling, industry) and powering these sectors with low carbon
electricity (renewables, nuclear, biomass . . ).
Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., & Le Quéré, C. (2014). Betting on negative emissions.
Nature Climate Change, 4(10), 850-853.
58
5
THE NATURE OF WORK
59
5
WE NEED TO TACKLE THE HURDLE OF JOB
CREATION
Even though many new jobs will be created in a circular economy,
lowering resource throughput will have negative implications for many
traditional business sectors and for lifting people from poverty. Millions
of jobs will be lost.
Two other trends will make employment more difficult worldwide: a
rising population and technological change, i.e. robotization.
To smooth the transition, society needs to provide meaningful purpose
and sufficient incomes for people, especially those made unemployed
through efficiency gains and to absorb a working population rising by
40 million a year.
Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation. Available at
2013.http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf
60
5
FORECASTS SHOW THAT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
A 2013 Delphi survey of some 300 global experts carried out by the
Millennium Project found that without changes in socio-politicaleconomic systems, unemployment is thought of as an increasing
trend.
Nearly half of the workforce
will be affected by
automation in some way by
2030.
Glenn, J.C., Florescu, E. and The Millennium Project Team. (2015). 2015-16 State of the Future, p.246. Available at
http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html
61
5
RETHINKING PRODUCTIVITY AND REDEFINING WORK
WILL BE CRITICAL
“Productivity” is seen as “labour productivity” rather than “resource
productivity”. In much of the service sector, in areas such as care,
culture and crafts, aiming to maximise labour productivity like this
makes no sense. Society's economic focus needs to switch from
maximizing labor productivity to maximizing resource productivity.
Work needs to be redefined to provide those who are home carers to
participate in the economy; compulsory pension ages need to be
scrapped; and the state needs to provide a basic income for all those
who need it (sick, elderly and unemployed) in the rich world. The poor
world needs to be provided with incomes & jobs too.
Particularly in richer countries, working time will also need to be
reduced to allow more people to work in paid employment. Work
needs to shared more equitably, in other words, so that society can
make the transition.
Maxton, G. & Randers, J. (2016 forthcoming). Reinventing Prosperity. Greystone
62
6
WHAT IS STOPPING
US MAKING THE
CHANGE?
6
CHANGING TO A BETTER ECONOMIC SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE
The steps required to shift humanity onto a sustainable path are
known. The necessary technology is also available.
Making the transition requires many governments to act in a way that
we have not often seen before, and to cooperate more.
Such a change is not unprecedented: The Marshall Plan for the
reconstruction of Europe after World War II required change on a
similar scale. Without actual collapse, however, we acknowledge that
such foresight and focus on the global common good appears very
unlikely. For politicians to act will require concerted pressure by a
sizeable vanguard of informed citizens, combined with a compelling
new story about how we can all live better lives that don’t cost the
earth. This is hard to see, but not impossible.
64
6
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF BARRIERS THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME
Political: Most parties are stuck in an outdated conventional growth
logic, and financially dependent on big business and maintaining the
status quo. Governments, on their own, are unlikely to decide on
making the bold steps necessary.
Vested interests: Those who would lose out are often the wealthiest
and more powerful citizens – the 1%
Short-termism and natural inertia: Humanity is short-termist and
fears change, especially when the alternative is uncertain.
Timing: Change has to be introduced when there is an appetite for it,
and this is hard to anticipate.
International Labour Office. (2012). Working towards sustainable development: Opportunities for decent work and social inclusion in
a Green Economy. International Labour Office.
65
6
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF BARRIERS THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME (CONT.)
To overcome these hurdles will require concerted pressure from a
sizeable vanguard of informed citizens, as well as a series of policy
initiatives that can gradually shift the economic system in a better
direction and that, importantly, appeal to the short term mindset of the
majority of voters.
66
7
A FINER FUTURE IS
POSSIBLE
7
WE ARE IN OVERSHOOT AND NEED TO BRING THE
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT BACK INTO BALANCE
Club of Rome, 2016
68
7
A TRANSITION WILL BE HARD…..
The human world is in a dangerous place, in ecological overshoot and
with unsustainable levels of inequality. The situation is still
deteriorating currently, and heading towards collapse.
Humanity's situation is the result of human decisions which led to the
development of our current economic system.
Logically then, different human decisions can change the current
system and avoid collapse.
This is hard, because it requires a new story, a different worldview, and
a number of policy decisions which will be difficult to implement.
69
7
….BUT A FINER FUTURE IS POSSIBLE
We first need to craft a new cultural story, one where humanity lives in
harmony with nature and where social tensions are drastically reduced
This will take time to implement and so we need to buy time
• through implementing the circular economy
• by progressively reforming key economic sectors (finance and business,
agriculture, energy and the nature of work)
• by introducing policies that appeal to the short-term interests of the
democratic majority
Creating the political and social desire for change is key
A Finer Future IS Possible
70
7
“CAN THE WORLD ACTUALLY EASE DOWN
BELOW THE LIMITS AND AVOID COLLAPSE? IS
THERE TIME? IS THERE ENOUGH MONEY,
TECHNOLOGY, FREEDOM, VISION, COMMUNITY,
RESPONSIBILITY, FORESIGHT, DISCIPLINE, AND
LOVE ON A GLOBAL SCALE?”
- Donella Meadows in the Limits to Growth
71
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78
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