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The Impact of Population Development Changes in the Central Bohemian Region on ElementarySchool Capacities after 1991* Marie Kusovská ([email protected]), Luděk Šídlo ([email protected]) Department of Demography and Geodemography, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science The Central Bohemian Region lies in the middle of Bohemia around Prague, the capital city. Considering the area and population, it is the biggest region in Czechia. After 1989 the settlement structure of the region has been changing mainly due to suburbanization process. In nineties the construction activities firstly stagnated due to termination of state involvement into housing construction, unsolved situation with lands and not very good economic situation of most people, later big developers came on the scene. After 2000 the suburbanization has been developing more rapidly, the main reason was better availability of housing funding products within people, such as mortgages and building savings (Ouředníček, Posová, 2006, p. 100–102). Together with the settlement changes occurred changes in population development and age structure on the local level. The following analysis compares population development and its impact on school capacities in two periods 1991–1998 (start of suburbanization process) and 2006–2013 (after escalation of suburbanization). Figure 2: Webb graph 1991–1998 2006–2013 Webb graph is a graphic method which expresses the nature of population development by comparing its two components: natural change and net migration. It was created by J. S. Webb to evaluate population development in local administrative areas (Webb, 1963). The inputs are the values of crude rate of natural change (vertical axis of Cartesian coordinate system) and net migration (horizontal axis). The positive orientation of axes show population growth and the negative population decline. Figure 1: Webb graph scheme Webb categories In the first period in 63 % of municipalities the population was totally decreasing, the share of dominant natural or migration decline was quite similar. On the other hand the majority of totally rising municipalities was caused by a positive level of a migration rate which exceeded natural decrease (type D). In spatial structure of the region it is hard to identify any patterns. In the south hinterland of Prague, where lies municipalities popular in the early stage of suburbanization such as Průhonice, Jesenice or Černošice, is stronger representation of types C and D. Decreasing population was mainly in localities further from Prague and along the border of the Central Bohemian Region. Spatial structure in the second period shows an organization to concentric zones, in a wider zone around Prague prevails type C, followed by a weaker circle of D type and in the south periphery of the region are municipalities with declining population. Lastly named area is an inner periphery, it lies on the border of two or three regions, where is worse availability to the centres of job opportunities, education or services (more in Musil, Müller, 2008). The interesting thing is that in other peripheral and also rural parts of the Central Bohemian Region (edges of districts Rakovník, Kutná Hora, Nymburk, Mladá Boleslav or Mělník) is very often D type. This fact could indicate the development of counterurbanization, which means moving people from urban or suburban areas to rural areas due to economic or lifestyle reasons (Šimon, 2012, p. 2). Figure 3: School capacities 1991–1998 2006–2013 Average number of pupils Source: ČSÚ, 2014b; MŠMT, 2015 The population development viewed by the Webb graph can give us some clues about the age structure. The highest intensity of migration is among people in younger productive age, followed by small children and then by older people entering retirement. With age is highly connected need of concrete public services, e.g. elementary schools. In Czechia each municipality is obliged to provide elementary school capacities for its children inhabitants. Therefore rapid changes in number of children can cause big problems to municipalities, if their representatives do not think ahead. This was quite a problem in early stage of suburbanization, the municipalities did not expected such a rejuvenation of the age structure and their school capacities were not sufficient. In the same way people moving into suburbs firstly did not realise this problem. Later the sufficient school capacities became one of the reasons for people to move in the municipality. Elementary school capacities in suburban areas have been increasing slowly, so between the two periods we can see very few changes. The most visible is an increased school capacity in municipalities in the hinterland of Prague, on the other hand in peripheral municipalities the school capacityis declining. This happens also in municipalities gaining population through counterurbanization, because the counterurban migrants are often people in retirement age (Šimon, 2012, p. 8) and natural increase is there usually negative, while suburban areas are preferred by younger people starting a family (Puldová, Novák, 2008, p. 42). 6th Demographic Conference of "Young Demographers" Actual Demographic Research of Young Demographers (not only) in Europe 12th and 13th February 2015 *The study was supported by the Charles University in Prague, project GA UK No 1288214. Increase: natural Increase: natural icrease exceeds icrease exceeds net out-migration net in-migration Decrease: net out-migration exceeds natural increase Decrease: net out-migration exceeds natural decrease A B H G F E Decrease: natural decrease exceeds net outmigration Increase: net in-migration exceeds natural increase C Increase: D net in-migration exceeds natural decrease Decrease: natural decrease exceeds net inmigration Net in-migration Source: ČSÚ, 2014a. Net out-migration Natural increase Natural decrease Source: Webb, 1963. The comparison of natural change and net migration values could result in eight different situations, which are marked with letters A–H. For example letter A expresses the population development where natural increase exceeds net out-migration, which means total population growth. A, B, C and D are the categories with total population growth, in the opposite, categories E, F, G and H mean total population decline. References: ČSÚ. 2014a. Databáze demografických údajů za obce ČR. Praha: Český statistický úřad. [cit. 2015-01-20]. Dostupné z: http://www.czso.cz/xs/redakce.nsf/bce41ad0daa3aad1c1256c6 e00499152/ebadf3cb4a53779cc125766d0046e3e9/$FILE/Dem ografie_89_08.pdf. ČSÚ. 2014b. Městská a obecní statistika – školství. Časové řady za obce 1991–1998. Data zakoupená od ČSÚ. MŠMT. 2015. Kapacity základních škol. Časové řady za obce 2005–2014. Data poskytnutá MŠMT. MUSIL, J., MÜLLER, J. 2008. Vnitřní periferie v České republice jako mechanismus sociální exkluze. Sociologický časopis/Czech Sociological Review. 2008, Vol. 44, No. 2, s. 321–348. ISSN 00380288. OUŘEDNÍČEK, M., POSOVÁ, D. 2006. Suburbánní bydlení v Pražském městském regionu: etapy vývoje a prostorové rozmístění. In: Ouředníček, M. ed.: Sociální geografie Pražského městského regionu. PULDOVÁ, P., NOVÁK, J. 2008. Suburbanizace a sociální prostředí. In: OUŘEDNÍČEK, M. (et al.). Suburbanizace.cz. Praha: Přírodovědecká fakulta Univerzity Karlovy v Praze, 2008. 96 s. ISBN 978-80-86561-72-1. Univerzita Karlova v Praze, Přírodovědecká fakulta. Katedra sociální geografie a regionálního rozvoje. Praha.Str. 96-113. ISBN 80-86561-94-1. ŠIMON, M. 2012. Exploring Counterurbanisation in a PostSocialist Context: Case of the Czech Republic. Sociologia ruralis. Article first published online: 11 OCT 2012, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2012.00576.x Article available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.14679523.2012.00576.x/abstract. WEBB, J. W. 1963. The Natural and Migrational Components of Population Changes in England and Wales, 1921–1931. Economic Geography. Vol. 39, No. 2, p. 130–148.