prague social science studies pražské sociálně vědní studie
Transkript
prague social science studies pražské sociálně vědní studie
Public policy and forward studies series - March 2007 PRAGUE SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES PRAŽSKÉ SOCIÁLNĚ VĚDNÍ STUDIE ON THE ORIGINS OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TRANSTION COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF CZECH ENTREPRENEURIAL ELITE 2007 Vladimír Benáček Public policy and forward studies Preliminary version, forthcoming in March, 2007 Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University / Fakulta sociálních věd UK Faculty of Arts, Charles University / Filozofická fakulta UK Origins of Entrepreneurship 2 Vladimír Benáček This text has passed reviewers’ comments. This study was commissioned as part of Research Objective MSM0021620841 Development of Czech Society within the EU: Challenges and Risks. Copyright Vladimír Benáček ISSN 1801-5999 Origins of Entrepreneurship 3 Vladimír Benáček On the Origins of Entrepreneurship in Transition Countries: The Case of Czech Entrepreneurial Elite VLADIMÍR BENÁČEK, FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, CHARLES UNIVERSITY Abstract Based on the Czech experiences from the post-communist reforms, the aim of the paper is to shed light on why the early stages of transition in all post-communist societies offered so many opportunities to the nomenklatura and why the access to capital ownership could not avoid frauds or even capital-destructive transactions. A special attention is given to corrective processes of economic re-adjustments when the social order converges gradually to more standard capitalist organisation. The main characteristics of these evolutionary processes were: parallel restructuring at economic, political, social a legal levels; high speed and intensiveness of changes that were full of bends and blind alleys; peacefulness in their external environment; and non-violence in domestic negotiations. The changes were particularly intensive in the eight EU accession countries. The European Union played a very important disciplining role in that respect. As a policy recommendation, the domestic policy-making should refrain from the direct confrontation of adversaries. Instead of a subjecting them to centralised command, the conflicts among post-communist winners and losers should be re-directed to negotiable adjustments at micro-social levels. The unique combination of gradualism in changes and the rapidly progressing stages of transition, heading towards the creation of new entrepreneurial elites, led societies towards a new equilibrium accompanied by accelerating growth and stabilising social order. The lessons from the peaceful, fast and effective transitions in the countries of Central and Baltic Europe enriched the history of capitalist development despite their peregrinations and trials and errors in human confrontations. As such, they can be used to contemplate similar transitions in other societies. Keywords: Entrepreneurs; economic transition; social adjustment; economic elites; adverse selection. AUTHOR’S ACKNOWLEDGEMENS AND CREDITS Contact address for comments and correspondence: [email protected] Origins of Entrepreneurship 4 Vladimír Benáček On the Origins of Entrepreneurship in Transition Countries: The Case of Czech Entrepreneurial Elite 1. ENTREPRENEURSHIP UNDER COMMUNISM The failures of the communist economic management throughout Central and Eastern Europe resulted in a domino of political upheavals unparalleled in human history. The resultant coups, achieved so easily, were named “velvet revolutions”. Some political speculators therefore question whether the dismantling of communism was a genuine demise or rather an attempt at retrenchment by the communist elite. A massive apparatchik involvement in the privatisation in practically all transition countries and the sophisticated techniques used for the acquisition of property suggest that more scrutiny of the processes of new entrepreneurship in these countries deserves attention. Where could entrepreneurship in transition countries come from? Did it depend preponderantly on imports from the advanced capitalist countries? Or was there a sort of a conjunction of entrepreneurial "animal spirits"? We will concentrate in this paper on the primary drivers of transition viewed via the prism of entrepreneurship1, considered as the salient feature of emerging new capitalism and indispensably connected with the evolution of its new social structures. The class of great entrepreneurs, i.e. those who own a vast stock of capital and hire labour, is of a particular importance among them. Concerning the method, the theories of transition will be confronted with empirical evidence taken from the Czech experience. Before going into more detail let us start with an old joke as an outline. 1/ All are employed – but no one works. 2/ No one works – but the output target is always fulfilled. 1 In this paper we treat entrepreneurship in the wider sense: as economic, social and political decision-making, organisation and leadership concerning not only enterprises, but also institutions of public administration, political parties and formal and informal civil organisations. The control over ownership in societies, where property rights oveer the "means of production" were previously guaranteed for the government only, became the crucial issue to be solved before an authentic entrepreneurship could scale the heights. Entrepreneurship therefore cannot do without private property, individualism, free competition and incentives for innovations open to all. These are the constitutional institutions of capitalism. To the contrary, societies ruled by hierarchies and commands must deny or suppress them. Origins of Entrepreneurship 5 Vladimír Benáček 3/ Output target is always fulfilled – but there is nothing in the shops. 4/ There is nothing in the shops – but the people have everything. 5/ People have everything – but they all swear at the regime. 6/ All swear at the regime – but in elections they all vote for the communists. There may be a lot of exaggeration in this joke but its anecdotal wisdom also reveals that practicing the communism required a great deal of entrepreneurship for each “miracle”. But what kind of entrepreneurship could it be? Baumol, 1990, provides the clue when he stressed that human entrepreneurial activities were omnipresent and could never be destroyed. The problem is in which alternative economic fields – productive, redistributive or destructive – and under what conditions the entrepreneurship is allocated in the given period. Baumol’s classification also allows distinguishing between the Marshallian-Schumpeterian productive entrepreneurship and its other orientations. The crucial role is then played by economic incentives and market institutions, which should be fine-tuned in order to enhance productive entrepreneurship and to divert it from redistributive, predatory or destructive ventures. Therefore, however bizarre the organisation of communist economies, some entrepreneurship found always its way there. Practicing the communism thus required a great deal of entrepreneurial skills because its management for a survival had to overcome the chaotic information about cost efficiency and also the structure of gluttonous final demand had to be ranked by some priorities, which were all in conflict. Its managers therefore had to make up for a lot of market deficiencies and behave "entrepreneurially". According to Leibenstein, 1995, entrepreneurship is based on devising schemes that would substitute for the missing or failing markets. Missing and failing markets were actually the defining characteristics of communist economies. Hypothetically speaking, entrepreneurship in communism had a large space for its command, provided it would not be prosecuted as illegal. However, quite often it was. That was a natural reaction, though a similar one to the suicidal reaction of a body rejecting a transplant that could save it. Entrepreneurship is an act of individual supremacy and it leads to enrichment. But communism is hostile to individualism (except to its Great Commander) and enrichment so achieved cannot be tolerated. Thus communism has a built-in mechanism for its own destruction. Communist systems could not but abandon the capitalist principles of three freedoms (i.e. economic, social /democratic/ and personal freedom) and resign from the notions of individual choice that were manifested, for example, in consumer sovereignty or political suffrage. If communism is brought to fight for its survival, it naturally sticks back to denying all previous attempts at introducing some rudimentary market or democratic principles. This is best explained by looking at Cuba (Benacek, 2006b). Indeed, all communist systems in Europe, Asia or America were violent experiments of social engineering based on the military deterrent and aiming at returning the society to systems akin to feudal organisation. Kornai, 2005, considered communism a detour. Indeed, it was a reaction against the flow of history that was discarding the autocratic social organisation and the belief in its supernatural origin guaranteed, for example, by the God (Hegel) or by the universal laws of Nature (Marx). Thus capitalism was a gradual evolution, progressing since the times of Renaissance, that was pushing Western civilisations ever closer to the organisation based on individual initiatives and private property. It accelerated the social development dramatically since the 19th century. The trend was confirmed in already advanced capitalist countries during 1950s, after a Origins of Entrepreneurship 6 Vladimír Benáček short wavering caused by the Big Crash (1929-33) and the War (1939-45). After the worldwide fall of Communism in 1990s it even further accelerated, as the average growth in GDP of the world increased to over 4% and in many transition countries it reached rates over 6% in the long run. The failures of the communist economic management throughout Central and Eastern Europe and China were very serious. In no single case communism could provide sufficient consumer choice, as it was standard in developed market economies. Nevertheless, its system of Party command could achieve political integrity, the supply of basic investment goods and satisfy the consumer subsistence. The enormous GDP capture, where 70-80% of the GDP were redistributed by the state budget, sufficed for building a credible deterrent of both military and police to secure the communist rule its succession, if that would be a unanimous priority of the elite of nomenklatura 2. Surprisingly, that was suddenly not their volition in 33 countries of the world 3. It was an unexpected discontinuity. The bottom-line for its explanation is that we cannot resolve the massive abandonment of communist economic system by a mere offensive from the trenches of their external and internal opponents. There must have been a coacting from their own lines. Thus the communist societies were not void of entrepreneurial spirit, even though, from the very systemic arrangement, it could not have been properly allocated. For example, communism lacked correct incentives (such as the rewards by performance), necessary instruments (such as the market competition, auctioning and free pricing) and institutional backup (such as the private property). We can distinguish two roots, which moulded the massive rise of the Czech (and Slovak) private economic activities after 1989: the legacy of preceding capitalism and the legacy of totalitarian socialism. The Central European and the Baltic countries, but to a lesser extent the other countries of the Soviet Empire, could still rely on the cultural principles that characterised their societies two or three generations ago. Actually the legacy of Czech capitalist consciousness during the communist days could be traced to the traditions of F. Palacký (1798-1876), K. Havlíček (1821-1856) or T. Baťa (1876-1932), who were liberals of cosmopolitan background, stressing the build-up of Czech bourgeois vitality in contrast to the local religious, nationalistic or agricultural sentiments, as it was common among conservatives at that time. In 1913 the Czech Lands were the most industrially developed part of the Hapsburg Empire, competing technologically and commercially with the most advanced countries in Europe. The brand names of Škoda, Křižík, Kolben, Bata, Avia, Jawa, Tatra or Živnobanka were the entrepreneurial flagships of international competitiveness. This trend continued during the period of Czechoslovak independence in 1918-1938. In 1948 the Czech Lands had the most competitive economy of Central/Eastern Europe, with a 2 In this study the meaning of "nomenklatura" is assuming that the communist system had its own non-dissident political, economic and cultural elite. We will concentrate predominantly on the economic elite, in contrast to apparatchik elite of communist party secretariats. The former will be characterised by its engagement in "reformed economy", alignment with technocracy and acceptance of human capital, even though its real power stemmed from various forms of social capital (e.g. political capital, network capital and informal relational capital). 3 There were two exceptions only. In contrast to others, the ancien régime in North Korea and Cuba stack to its old priorities, what could hardly happen, would their charismatic leaders Kim Ilsung and Fidel Castro not be in command. Notwithstanding their exceptionally weak economies and a myriad of powerful external and internal pressures, these most inflexible and isolated communist regimes survived (Benacek, 2006b). Origins of Entrepreneurship 7 Vladimír Benáček long tradition of openness to the world (Benacek, 2003). The following principles characterized the Czech society and formed the economic development before 1939 (see de Ménil, Maurel, 1993): • Reliance on democracy; • A combination of market competition with foreign trade controls, cartels and bureaucratic interventions; • Restrictive monetary policy and convertibility; • Enforcement of private property rights; • Liberal attitude towards religion and other nationalities; • Competition between Czechs and the local German and Jewish minorities; • Intensive free trading, mainly with its Western and Southern neighbouring countries; • Division of labour and specialization in labour and human capital-intensive industries. It is interesting to notice how in mere 3 years of 1990-92 the Czech society returned to these principles, which the external political forces had been trying to suppress systematically for 50 years. The recovery went sometimes to shocking details, like increasing the share of exports to Germany from 8.3% in 1989 to 33.3% in 1992 and bringing the territorial structure of trade to a close similarity with that of 1928. The legacy of capitalism and the memory of self-reliance were most useful in situations when the workers had to forage moonlight and barter things for livelihood. The reason was not only the shortage of products under central planning, but that the employment in the hierarchies of nomenklatura was not opened to competition among talents. Also the incentives for an engagement of human capital in enterprises were distorted. Therefore the national stock of productive human (entrepreneurial) capital could not have been used fully in the official economy. The business skills remained to a large extent outside of nomenklatura, where they were used either in retail trafficking (e.g. working as taxi drivers, tradesmen or shop assistants) or in do-it-yourself household and fraternity tieups – such as housing upkeep, car repairs, sports, arts, holidays, underground political dissent, etc. Entrepreneurial skills of the shadow private sector were to a large extent frittered away by high transaction costs on the exchange side and by a poor access to technology. Nevertheless, it was a valuable entrepreneurial training that could be most useful whenever small businesses would be liberalised. Due to internal barriers that varied among sectors and regions and the use of different ingenious techniques for overcoming the shortages 4, the legacy of capitalist entrepreneurship in communist countries was spread asymmetrically throughout the society. The legacy of totalitarian socialist entrepreneurship was of different stock. It concerned the party bureaucrats who had to invent the most bizarre tricks in order to push through the unviable system of blind central command to achieve at least some sort of performance. If it were not for the common good, the nomenklatura would do it at least for their own “residual claimancy” to be satisfied, which actually raised their activity to a status of entrepreneurship. The Brezhnev style of corporate management introduced in early 1970s could not avoid innovation or flexibility, whatever absurd were both in their processes and outcomes. As an option, the management of enterprises could either take an 4 Remember that much of the mentioned "shadow" entrepreneurial activities in communist countries were illegal, while at the same time the parallel official positions were often given to people without entrepreneurial talent and where the collective rules were undermining strategic initiative and risk-taking, without which entrepreneurship cannot exist. Origins of Entrepreneurship 8 Vladimír Benáček inward orientation towards innovation and efficiency or an outward orientation towards negotiations with the vertically superior bureaucracies. Given the known lack of microeconomic fundamentals, as it came clear from the Hayek versus Lange-Lerner controversy, the socialist management of efficiency could rely on rudimentary principles only, such as the minimisation of queues, inputs of material and energy or imitation of products and processes used in market economies (Kornai, 1980). It was also combined with a redistributional "innovation" – with bargaining for a softer output plan or for a higher quota on inputs. A success in any of these was a sophisticated entrepreneurial treat where the gains were personal and they could be used for the build-up of powerful private social/relational capital (see Bezemer, Dulleck, Frijters, 2003). The reforms in communist countries since early 1970s offered nomenklatura more initiative. If an apparatchik fulfilled the plan target and showed sufficient loyalty to the superiors, he/she received a free hand to exercise power over resources, staff policy and bonus remuneration in the economic unit belonging to his/her respective rank in the hierarchy. On the equal horizontal level of bureaucratic subordination the manager had powers to collude with other "partners" in order to form cartels, information asymmetries and political coalitions, which liquidated potential interference in the production, distribution or planning processes. In their relation to various superiors (on the level of state planning, district council supervision or party subordination) bureaucrats had a wide range of alternatives for negotiations and vertical collusions in order to strengthen their strategic standing. With the widening possibilities for the official (and unofficial) accumulation of wealth, the socialist millionaires cropped up everywhere since the late 1970s. The situation in communist countries has taken another dimension when in 1983 Andropov's doctrine (Zeihan, 2006) switched the communist strategic orientation from external imperial expansion to concentration on domestic reforms, enterprises, technological innovations and more flexible management. Such changes, however, were not possible without relinquishing the extent of the Soviet world control. All that offered national entrepreneurship a new spur for an even greater autonomy. The resulting socio-political antagonism caused by the different relationship to entrepreneurship before the fall of communism can be identified with three social groups. We will call them "marketeers", "nomenklatura" and “outsiders”. The following approximate list of activities can be made in order to distinguish between them: (i) Marketeers: private farmers, repair workers, artisans, tradesmen; catering and hotel staff, cab drivers, foreign exchange touts, greengrocers, used car dealers; shop managers, shop assistants, stock keepers; popular entertainers, artists, top sportsmen; administrators of queues, bureaucrats issuing licences, certificates and permits; ringleaders of organized crime. (ii) Nomenklatura: directors of companies, their deputies, heads of divisions or financially independent units; paid party apparatchiks, high-ranking bureaucrats at ministries, district and municipal councils; high-ranking officers in army and police. (iii) Outsiders: people with low degree of revealed entrepreneurial aspirations. These again could be divided into two groups: those with human and entrepreneurial capital practicing mainly in the do-it-yourself activities (latent outsiders) and those lacking such skills (passive outsiders). Among the former there was a large subgroup of middle class who were people with high productive potential underpinned by education and morals calling for democracy: doctors, engineers, teachers, computer operators or scientists, whose Origins of Entrepreneurship 9 Vladimír Benáček potential of entrepreneurial skills could not be used under the communist system. Their expectations for a change were very high. As an illustration of the size of such groups, we can use the data from the Czech survey of Vítečková, 1992. The pre-transition society in Czechoslovakia could be intuitively structured as 10-15% belonging to group (i), 4-8% to group (ii) and 77-86% remaining in the group (iii), of who a quarter could be classified as "latent" entrepreneurs. This had an impact on how the economy was split informally into the State, the officialprivate and the shadow-private sectors. Their sizes differed by countries. According to Janacek, 2000, the share of official-private sector on GDP in 1989 was 1.5% in Czechoslovakia, 8.5% in Eastern Germany, 14% in Hungary and 26% in Poland. However, what mattered for the potential of entrepreneurship were the extents of the shadow economy and autonomous managerial activities of nomenklatura. Although their fuzzy watersheds can be hardly quantified, their presence and the crucial importance for the communist economies are undeniable. When the window-dressing of central planning and hierarchical subordination finally lost the institutional support in 1990, the enterprises and the economy hardly recognised any change at the beginning: the long-established "shadow management systems" were already in control of the economy and ready for transition (Benacek, 1995). However, the transition was tougher and different in its contents than anyone could have presumed. 2. ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE EARLY STAGES OF TRANSITION It follows that it was the nomenklatura of state enterprises and not the central planners who were in control of the official parts of the economy and who could gained even more when Andropov and Gorbachev doctrines undermined the instruments of totalitarian collectivism. Such national systems were ready for a breakthrough, once a strong external shock cracked the institutional braces in merely one country. There was a risk and uncertainty in individual cases but under the premise of a “velvet revolution” the nomenklatura could not expect to lose much as a group. A similar situation rested with the marketeers and "latent" outsiders: they expected a better deal once their activities were liberalised. Although the group of passive outsiders could gain the least in entrepreneurial advantages, they were also inclined for a change – their gains were associated with higher consumer choice and the introduction of democracy. Thus the surprising discontinuity in the collapse of communism was not so sudden – it was backed by long-evolving new expectations along all structures of the society. As the 17 years of transition later revealed, the small-scale entrepreneurial gains were favourable for the latent outsiders. In the long run they used their human capital, organisational skills and endurance for the majority of gains in the small businesses and self-employment. For example, in the Czech case 21% of all employees were registered as self-employed businesses by 1994. In 2003 that number increased to 33% 5. These figures show a very high degree of entrepreneurial organisation in an international comparison. Also in other Central European and Baltic countries the rise of self-employed among the former outsiders was very high (Selowsky and Mitra et al., 2002) and comparable with the 5 According to the Czech Statistical Office, Annual Yearbook, 1996 and 2004. Origins of Entrepreneurship 10 Vladimír Benáček situation in advanced market societies. The transition hit harshly the private sector that was already established under socialism – i.e. the marketeers. As pointed out by Winiecki, 2000, and Winiecki et al., 2004, the emergence of new business opportunities after 1989 caused bankruptcies not only among the state firms but also among the old private businesses. The reliance on the shortage economy, the lack of discipline and entrepreneurial vision, and the failures in restructuring caused shrinkage of the old private sector by 40-75%, while at the same time the new the start-ups coming from the group of latent outsiders contested the markets. We can therefore come with a general hypothesis that the group of socialist “marketeers” did not prove to have sufficient skills for an easy transition to the ranks of new entrepreneurs. The reason was a dramatic change in incentives and in the environment of businesses after the fall of the iron curtain. The incentives under communism induced the marketeers to profit from the excess demand, black market prices and corrupt state bureaucracy; altogether, not a useful experience for acting under functioning markets. Therefore we should not expect a significant shift of this group to positions of grand entrepreneurs. The transition process after the fall of communism could be split into several domains: a/ Transition of management from collectivist centralised bureaucracy (often confused with central planning) to autonomous competing bidders for new managerial positions. b/ Transition of the fiscal system, which included the transition from high taxes and price controls to low taxes and liberalised pricing. c/ Transition of openness from international trade functionally separated from the internal economy to mutually interlinked external and internal economies. d/ Transition of ownership from state monopolies to private enterprises that concerned industrial enterprises, collective ownership of land, commercial banking, etc. Taking all four domains into unity could be described as the transition of entrepreneurship. It concerned the behavioural quintessence of capitalism – the role of individuals in taking decisions, contracts, risks and property claims associated with profits. The free space opened for the development of entrepreneurship can be thus considered the decisive driving force towards capitalism. Its transition was moving it from dysfunctional and illicit institutional schemes towards efficient organisation and decision-making based on democracy and economic freedom. There is no democracy without capitalism and its entrepreneurship. In the next analysis we will concentrate on the evolution of grand (i.e. the largescale) entrepreneurship in Czechia. As leading social agents of capitalism, this economic elite is called "the top hundred thousand" in the popular parlance. Their characteristics are that they act as legal entities of enterprises and not as physical persons, such as selfemployed tradesmen. The legal form of grand entrepreneurship is best represented by the ownership of joint stock or limited liability companies. Their necessary characteristics are that they hire labour and that the ownership concerns such a volume of capital that could not be financed directly from wages. We will assess the transition of four groups of economic agents into the position of grand capitalist entrepreneurs. Our further estimates will be based on the survey of Vítečková, 1993. It deals with the structure of Czech private entrepreneurs in December 1992, classified by their origin into four groups of professional ranks in communist management (i.e. that one before 1990): top, middle, low and none. But what is the relationship between four Vítečková's professional ranks and our previous classification into three groups? The first two groups of (i.e. those of high and middle ranks, in contrast to low ranks) can be taken for proxies closely correlated with our group of "nomenklatura". The "latent" subgroup of outsiders and the group of marketeers can be both traced mainly in the low rank and only partially in the Origins of Entrepreneurship 11 Vladimír Benáček "no position" rank of the communist management. The data reveal that the access to new riches was subject to high asymmetries in the potential for ownership gains. The quantitative characteristics in Vítečková's survey were drawn from a sample of 1000 businessmen, each of who had registered as a firm with the status of a legal entity ("legal person") that hired a staff of employees during the first three years of transition. It is important to mention that it excluded persons licensed to self-employed proprietorship. While the latter numbered over 1 million licensees in 1992 (out of the full-time Czech employment of 5 million), the number of private business companies registered as legal entities was 83,695. We could therefore presume that this number of enterprises might generate approximately 160 thousand positions of new high-ranking private entrepreneurs – the new entrepreneurial upper class (riches nouveaux) of the early Czech post-communist elite. We will test the hypothesis that Czech "grand entrepreneurs" with capitalistic businesses of hired labour were to be recruited from the set of nomenklatura, i.e. from the existing top and middle bureaucrats of the communist ancien régime. We estimated their number at 262 thousand, out of the population of 10.5 million. They were supposed to compete for 160 thousand positions as owners of new private firms with the status of legal entities. The stylised facts characterising the origin and mobility of the Czech entrepreneurs are summed up in Table 1. Our task is to estimate the approximate probabilities of becoming a high-ranking new entrepreneur. The results based on the method of simulation are in the column E. Table 1: Structure of Czech Private Entrepreneurs in 1989 and 1992 (stylized facts) Old positions of "new"entrepreneurs of 1992 prior to 1990 (C) Shares on total in % (D) Probability of transition from A to C in % (E = C / A) Rank in the communist management prior to 1990 Estimated no. of workers in 1989 (A) Shares on total in % (B) Top Middle Low None (both latent and passive) 38 000 224 000 885 000 0,7 % 4,2 % 16,5 % 17 600 25 600 70 400 11 % 16 % 44 % 46,3 % 11,4 % 8,0 % 4 227 000 78,7 % 46 400 29 % 1,1 % 5 374 000 100 % 160 000 100 % 3,0 % TOTAL Source: Own estimates by using the data for column D from Vítečková, 1993. Columns A and B show the estimated breakdown of the total Czech employment in 1989 by four managerial categories /ranks/ based on own estimates. The structure of professional transition to a group of 160 thousand new large private entrepreneurs at the end of 1993 according to the characteristics collected by Vítečková, 1993, is indicated in column D. This is used in column C for estimating the number of those who established large businesses in 1990-92. Their structure is classified and ranked according to their highest working assignments achieved anytime during their careers before 1990. If the estimated structures in columns B and D, and the sum of column C are closely Origins of Entrepreneurship 12 Vladimír Benáček related to their real distribution 6, then the following implications can be drawn: a) There is a very high probability (46.3%) between the incidence of having been a communist bureaucrat in a top or middle managerial position and the membership in an emerging class of new capitalist entrepreneurs. The difference between the transition probability in this group compared with the groups of communist management in middle and lower ranks is striking and robust to the error terms. If we keep in mind that in 1992 approximately 75 % of the output was still produced in the non-private sector 7, then practically all the departures of former top nomenklatura (forced or voluntary) until 1992 must have been directed to establishing private businesses that would be prepared to absorb the wave of privatisation and loans awaited after the end of large-scale privatisations in 1993-95. This would be a good managerial foresight, confirming the optimistic expectations from 1989. b) Since 95% of the top and middle ranking managers prior to 1990 were members of the Communist Party (CP), and a high proportion of the low ranking managers also had to be party members, then approximately 37-42% of the Czech emerging high capitalist class in 1992 were people associated with the CP. Such estimate can be drawn from results in column C 8. However, if we presumed that the CP membership was most often just a sign of mere opportunism greedy for power, the real qualities of new Czech entrepreneurs were much more subject to flaws in character and ethical integrity than to being stalwarts of Marxian doctrines. c) Our estimates point at the error of many observers of transition who assumed that the Eastern totalitarian societies were void of any efficient entrepreneurship and economic rationality. Thus these qualities would have to be imported nearly exclusively from abroad, e.g. by inviting emigrants or foreign investors 9. On the contrary, we presume that a fast and peaceful transition to new capitalist entrepreneurship cannot be dissociated from former domestic management, domestic traditions and domestic resources in all stages of transition. 6 Naturally, we cannot take the simulated stylised facts in Table 1 strictly at face value of their point estimation. The error term in estimates in column E can be relatively large. Its value depends mainly on the robustness of estimates in column B, provided we could assume that the error terms of data given in column D were low with a mean of zero. We estimated that the error term in data of column B could range from 10% through 20%. As can be easily simulated, such variations do not cause a significant qualitative bias in column E that could reverse the tenor of our conclusions. The other instability can be generated by the total number of positions in new large businesses (summed in column C), which potentially could vary from 145 to 180 thousand positions. Their influence would be most sensitive in the group of former top nomenklatura. Then its probability of transition would be subject to a variation by plus/minus 6 percentage points. That is again an acceptable error term. 7 It should be said that even though the number of big private enterprises was already large, the majority of output rested still in the State or in the partially de-etatised enterprises. Only in the next 5-8 years their employment and ownership moved to the hands of pre-activated private entrepreneurs, as the scope of privatisation widened and deepened, and as the companies under incomplete ownership went bust or unbundled under the pressure of competition. 8 This estimate is consistent with the conclusions of Matějů, 1997, and Machonin et al., 2006, pp. 45 and 79, where the latter estimate the share of former nomenklatura of 36.8% for 1994, without distinguishing between the high, middle or low ranks. 9 The strategy of massive imports of entrepreneurs from abroad was applied first in Hungary. In other countries it was much later (e.g. in Czechia and Slovakia in late 90s). It was not a losing strategy because indigenous entrepreneurs had a longer period for proving their capacities (or incapacities) of leadership, what caused less political discontent when the flood of foreign competitors finally arrived. Origins of Entrepreneurship 13 Vladimír Benáček Indeed, our data are not in conflict with the assumption that entrepreneurial drive was present in all societies and the selection of post-communist economic elite, if left without external discrimination, could not avoid former elite. For example, it targeted 27% of all new entrepreneurs among nomenklatura in the Czech case. d) At the same time it is clear that it was the selection of communist elites that was subject to political bias, discriminating against entrepreneurial skills: only approximately 15% of former nomenklatura succeeded in re-gaining their position among grand entrepreneurs in the first three years of transition. Of course, the later stages also offered them a chance for re-switching, even though more advanced capitalism offered an even higher risk of exit of nomenklatura from the previously gained position among elite. We can see that having a peaceful transition was an objective that could be shared among both nomenklatura and outsiders. e) Even though the tributes paid to the Czech nomenklatura for their peaceful surrender could seem to have been undeserved (at least morally), that still would not deny the fact that local nomenklatura had some objective economic reasons for being a leading group in becoming entrepreneurs. Discriminating the nomenklatura in their access to property was not practiced legally in post-communist countries. Indeed, we lack evidence that an introduction of such legal barriers might have speeded up the processes of social adjustment and the selection of optimal structure of entrepreneurs significantly. The only evidence of institutional barriers placed on nomenklatura, that one practiced in the privatisation in Eastern Germany, would point to an opposite: the preference given to imported entrepreneurs (e.g. from Western Germany) did not improve the competitiveness of local enterprises and led to other tributes (such as high wage and social compensations to local workers) that undermined the pace of East German transition and led to the worst results from all transition countries in Central Europe. f) A final judgment about an easy penetration of communist elites into the ranks of large entrepreneurs cannot be drawn during the early stages of transition. For example, the assessment how successful was the old-new economic elite in competing with remaining 60% of newcomers and with international businesses could be conclusive only twelve years later. We will discuss it in the last chapter. g) If the nomenklatura were subject to a certain degree of efficiency, competition and meritocracy, then they could have had motives to take part in the dismantling of the inefficient system of planning, public property, bureaucracy and political paternalism, which limited their motives for more wealth and power. That implies that nomenklatura should not mind velvet type of revolutions so much. More surprisingly, this statement can also work vice versa. Thus even the new political elite, recruited from the ranks of former dissidents, may have reasons for accepting their former oppressors as competent business allies. h) The rate of transition of former low-ranking state managers and supervisors into new grand entrepreneurs is very high, forming 44% of their total number, although a probability of succeeding in such a move would be around 8% only. However, not a large part of them can be expected to come from among the group of marketeers, as we already discussed. Thus many of the latter either remained in small businesses or became a hired labour in businesses of their more successful competitors. i) Only a small fraction of people (1.1%), who were neither engaged in the communist nomenklatura networks, nor in any formal managerial position, have after 3 years succeeded in becoming grand entrepreneurs. Unfortunately, the data from Vítečková, 1993, do not allow us to separate from the statistical sample of the "no managerial rank" Origins of Entrepreneurship 14 Vladimír Benáček those belonging to marketeers or to "latent" and "passive" outsiders, respectively. If we would assume that 30% of this heterogeneous group were people with organisational or technical skills and that they formed 75% of new entrepreneurs coming from this group, then the probability of transiting from among the group of passive outsiders would be mere 0.4%. That would be one out of 250 only. j) Even if we admitted that the managerially less motivated workers represented the majority of skilled (latent) outsiders, we still cannot exclude the existence of high barriers to outward mobility from this numerous subgroup of former non-CP wage earners. According to the previous assumptions, their chances for becoming large entrepreneurs would be 2.8% only. That is still below the national average of 3% – implying the continuation of past selection bias discriminating the human capital and the existence of other barriers precluding the skilled outsiders from entrepreneurial entry after 1989 10: lack of wealth, lack of pull from the network of cronies and the pressure of adverse selection acting against people with high moral principles. k) In this paper we concentrated on the emergence of new grand capitalists. However, the group of outsiders and low-ranking communist managers were not cut off their chances completely. There was still opened an access to small-scale capitalism, for example, to self-employed businesses. The pressures of hard budget constraint were often harsher there than in large (privatised) businesses, where the transition was cushioned by special government policies [Winiecki et al. 2004]. Nevertheless, as in the Czech case, the progress in scope and in efficiency of self-employed or family-type of businesses throughout 1990s was significant, becoming the springboard for future expansion into becoming larger firms. 3. THE MEANING OF TRANSITION The recent post-communist "transition" is often interpreted as economic, political and social transformation of institutions required for the passage from centrally planned to market economy. It is an insufficient and rather delusive interpretation. Transition should be studied on real systems, as they were, and not on abstract systems, saying as the reality ought to be. a/ A transition so defined would have fuzzy time constraints, if taken literally. The passage from non-market to market institutions has been a tendency characterising the social development in the last 300 years, at least. The post-communist transitions would 10 This is a rather disturbing finding because the group of skilled outsiders is quite numerous (24% of labour force) and it forms the social group of middle class. According to many authors, it is the middle class that acts as the social force upholding democracy and capitalist pro-market institutions. Offering low incentives for the prosperity of middle class thus threatens the political and economic stability of the whole society. It is a common observation of politics in transition countries of Central Europe that dissatisfied members of middle class were prone to collude politically with the lower classes. The latter, once they lose the trust in having a chance for becoming members of the middle class, tend to support redistributional policies that undermine the otherwise high growth of the transition economy. Thus we could observe high political instability in transition countries: there were governments, notwithstanding their political orientation, that having failed in satisfying the expectations of its middle class electorate were superseded soon by another government, which was stricken by a similar fate. Origins of Entrepreneurship 15 Vladimír Benáček be just mere series of casual "great transformations" in human history (according to Kornai, 2005, by referring to Polányi, 1962). b/ Real transitions were neither a departure from economic systems of central planning, nor they aimed at the attainment of perfect market economies because both could hardly exist in a pure real form. It would be more realistic to think about a replacement of rigid (hierarchical) social governance by a more flexible mechanism opened to (market) competition, which became the target of government policies. Institutions of advanced capitalist countries served as examples to be replicated; however, their concrete implementation was a creative process that offered many local aberrations. However, in contrast to governments, neither that was the primary objective of the entrepreneurs-to-be, i.e. the dominant inherent agents of changes. c/ Thus the primary objective of transition was a shift to new riches, even though not necessarily by means of Pareto-improvements on the production side. Institutional revamping was considered as their primary means only, subject to a bias when redistributional aspects started to dominate over the productive aspects. Obsession with privatisation, asset stripping and escape from the rule of law were as much a part of transition as were the property rights, democratic polls and individual freedom. d/ The real achievement of transition was a shift to another imperfect market economy subject to domestic folklore and international pressures exercised under highly unstable leadership and weak feedback about what had been already accomplished. The communist social system was full of long-suppressed and accumulated conflicts, which had to be addressed to find a new social equilibrium. An immediate explosion of these conflicts and an attempt to eliminate the past elite would have unleashed chaos in society for a long time to come. A peaceful transition had to be gradual, and that made co-acting with the outgoing power essential. The whole process of the subsequent social, economic and political transformation cannot be achieved by means of revolutionary commands but through step-by-step negotiations at the micro-level. This can be likened to a process of market ‘tâtonnement’, i.e. a global social auction first described by Walras (see Jaffé, 1983) and to the processes of bargaining for the optimal redistribution of property rights, as explained by Coase, 1960. The optimal redistribution of property cannot be a one-off game. It is the quest for reciprocal re-adjustments among millions of domestic agents looking to reallocate their diverse interests and capacities. It would therefore be a mistake if some domestic central authority or intervening external force were to mastermind and dictate the course of these complicated processes.11 Settling local inter-human relationships that had been fettered for decades had to be left to local negotiations in an environment of centrally secured non-violence. Surprisingly, these originally highly improbable gradual readjustments occurred independently in all post-communist countries. They happened despite the myriad of local trials and errors, missed chances and moral compromises that affected nearly everyone and disappointed the expectations of an instant ‘justice’. It was clearly a strategy of second best that was easily criticised for its seeming blindness. Nevertheless, the amazing processes of social tâtonnement, a social parallel to market clearing, in which the resolution of human conflicts could be fine-tuned gradually and in peace, became, in the end, a strategy more efficient than any exogenous social engineering. As Kornai, 2005, 11 Such failing examples can be found in the US interventions by power in Iraq and Afghanistan or in the external imposition of reforms during the German unification. A more acceptable example can be found in China, as well as in Central and Baltic Europe. Origins of Entrepreneurship 16 Vladimír Benáček pointed out, such transitions were, after all, still extremely fast and unprecedented in human history. The gradual contest for capitalism was the most characteristic feature of the evolution of entrepreneurship, especially in the crucial field of capital redistribution and ownership, where human conflicts were for centuries most violent. Thus the peaceful evolution of entrepreneurship, intertwined with the necessary gradual ownership changes, can be regarded the cornerstone of post-communist transition (see also Popov, 2000). The bottomline of post-communist transitions is that they were not a centrally operated plan of social engineering, though there were many camp followers who claimed such a calling. It was a natural process of exceptionally rapid social evolution, triggered by lifting the threat of (Soviet) military intervention that was later complemented by lifting the threat of local police intervention. From the very start it was open-ended and driven by a myriad of autonomous bargaining and adjustments at social, economic and political micro-levels when the constraints of communist institutions were gradually abandoned. After the new ownership structures were stabilised (what took some 5-10 years), the issue of property rights was again relevant and the demand for other regulatory institutions was increasing. Thus the speed of transition reforms gradually decelerated, becoming restrained by rising regulatory institutions. Since the autonomous transformation of ownership proceeded faster than many other parallel changes (e.g. in the public administration or in democratic social culture), for many years it was ahead the languid legal framework. Then, as the legislation was catching-up gradually with the real changes, many processes of restructuring got suddenly stuck in a semi-finished stage and thus remained incomplete and suboptimal. As is shown in Figure 1, transition was characterised by an institutional liberalisation, accompanied by a frenzied autonomous economic activity in reallocations, innovations and re-adjustments. In the Czech case it was the period 1990-1997. The sudden jump-start of entrepreneurship in post-communist countries would not be possible without such a prior liberalisation and legal short-cuts, even up to a point of informal institutional vacuum, which slashed down the transaction costs of establishing and running businesses. All that was reversed in the later stages of transition. Degree of intensity Institutional constraints Flow of real economic adjustments 1982 1989 1997 2000 2007 Figure 1: The interplay between institutional (regulatory) constraints in transition and the reallocative economic adjustments Origins of Entrepreneurship 17 Vladimír Benáček The data of Bažantová, Kolář and Barbořík, 2006, illustrate such an inversed institutional evolution. For example, meanwhile it required to issue 194 new laws and 417 by-laws each year in average in order to turn the communist legal system into the capitalist one during 1990-92 12, and 65 laws plus 262 by-laws annually in average during the period of stabilisation 1993-98, the expansion of legal regulation accelerated in later years (1999-2006) by issuing 119 and 400 new laws and by-laws each year in average, respectively. The number of proposals of new laws increased even six-fold during 19992006 if compared with 1992-98. Even though the burden of institutional regulation was to a large extent imported from the framework of acquis communautaire, approximately 55% of regulatory norms in Czechia have still of national origin. The transaction costs of entrepreneurial activities, such as the establishment of an enterprise or hiring labour, also copied the U-shaped schedule of institutional changes in Figure 1. The transition countries thus acquired new economic leaders (entrepreneurs) within approximately 3-8 years, instead of a couple of generations, as it used to be in the traditional capitalism. However, the gains in speed were in conflict with the quality of selection. The quick outcome was economically suboptimal due to the bias caused by adverse selection. Akerlof, 1970, was the pioneer in describing how uncertainties, asymmetric information, incomplete markets and imperfect institutions (e.g. in contract or liability enforcements) led to a dominance of goods of low quality ("lemons") over the goods of high quality ("cherries"). Unfortunately, such a bias does not influence the selection among non-homogenous products or parties interested in insurance only – the cases used for illustration by Akerlof. It concerns also the selection of agents on labour or capital markets, when their backing institutions are obscure and the information is flawed. In such opaque situations the selection of new owners cannot but become dominated by the networks of relational (social) capital. Resultant outcomes then can differ widely from the selection based on other criteria, such as the endowments with human capital, financial capital or entrepreneurial skills, because in the early stages of transition the endowments of social and other types of capital are not highly positively correlated. In case of communist nomenklatura, expecting such a correlation between various forms of capital would be naive, since the endowments of relational capital were often in conflict with the endowments of human capital, especially among apparatchiks. In case of technocrats, a positive correlation was a part of their carrier building, even though the quality of their human capital did not have to be high. Firstly, it was not very useful vis-àvis the usefulness of the relational capital that was dominating. Academic titles in communism were mere signalling tools – a sort of an additional bonus for a cherry on a cake, which could be received for the provision of services of the relational capital. In addition, the quality of the human capital in communism was generally overestimated. As Beirne and Campos, 2006, have tested recently, the official evaluation of the stocks of human capital in transition countries was incorrectly measured and should be downgraded, if its seemingly high volume is weighed by performance. The estimates by means of educational production function led to lower levels of endowments relative to capitalist countries than was originally thought. That would also explain why the human capital in 12 It should be added that the new laws of 1990-92 were targeted at liberalisation and abolition of the former communist constraints to all three freedoms, meanwhile the new legislation in the second half of transition was to a large extent regulatory and raising the transaction costs of the economy. Origins of Entrepreneurship 18 Vladimír Benáček transition countries could not become the driving force of transition. The importance of signalling in the period of transition, which would constrain the extent of adverse selection of new entrepreneurs in an opaque environment, could have been of paramount importance. Unfortunately, the general uncertainties made signalling either ineffective or counter-productive. The trust in the past communist management was from obvious reasons very low at the very start. Also the initial trust in moral authorities (e.g. in political dissidents) was fading away, as their ethical constraints limited the power of their strategies useful for the main objective of transition (i.e. the property acquisition). Thus what remained was the signalling about some recent entrepreneurial success. But could such a claim be credible once it was achieved within an extremely short business history in an environment where decisions were not subject to repetition? They were just one-off shots that had to be taken immediately as the occasion appeared. The success was to a large extent a random process where the network of cronies could significantly manipulate (down or up) the transaction costs of such random games. The abuse of ethics, bluffing, moral hazard and frauds became decisive moments of such games. The natural high demand for signalling became the driver of its massive abuse and the rise of adverse selection – selection of the bad ones 13. 4. THE BIAS IN THE POLICIES OF PRIVATISATION As we have explained it above, transition means a dramatic breakthrough in changing those parts of social order that are subject to man-made decisions. These are political, economic and social institutions, with the property rights in the forefront. They determine the quality of the core agents of capitalism, and through these agents they also influence the quality of transition. Let us therefore look more closely at the structure and the role of institutions in general. The notion of “order” is a pivotal concept in explaining the social development and organisation. According to Hayek, 1973, it was in the tradition of German philosophy to distinguish between the natural fundamentals, i.e. the spontaneously evolving real base of human existence that he called “Cosmos” on one hand, and the man-contrived infrastructure of that spontaneous order called “Taxis”, on the other hand. Taxis reflects the aims (i.e. the interests and policies) of specific social groups. Hayek claims that it is impossible to introduce a new viable order by force – by simply manipulating Taxis, irrespective of the state of Cosmos. In another words, Taxis ought to be re-adjusted in parallel with the natural evolution in Cosmos. While the latter is objectively determined, the former depends on human perception and the willingness to a change. Thus Cosmos and Taxis are often in conflict. We can use Hayek’s reasoning and argue that the collapse of communism was a natural process of correction at the levels of both Cosmos and Taxis because the communist institutional setup was an attempt at social engineering aiming to stop the 13 For example, one of the most controversial defaults in property rights was masterminded by Viktor Kožený who controlled over the portfolio of Czechoslovak enterprises worth billions of dollars by advertising his business skills of a Harvard Business School graduate and who nicknamed his asset-stripping Harvard Capital Investment Funds to "Harvard". Another controversial case of asset disappearance of an even larger magnitude concerned Nomura investment bank – a symbol of Japanese growth, diligence and restructuring skills. Origins of Entrepreneurship 19 Vladimír Benáček evolution of capitalism by bringing the society back to pre-capitalist organisation. That brought the command-economies to a universal retardation. The call for institutional adjustments was immanent among all those agents who could foresee their own real improvement once an institutional change could be introduced. The crucial moment came when even the nomenklatura recognized a case for general Pareto-improvement. The central part of changes hinged on an introduction of economic liberties, including the enforcement of property rights (as legal norms) and an opening-up of speedy privatisation (as an open auction), that both belonged to Taxis. However, in the reality of transition the body of Taxis, as the pivotal instrument of the communist social organisation, could not be changed as quickly as the speed of privatisation would require. Thus privatisation could not avoid being caught in the vicious circle of the impossible: introducing new Taxis before having new Cosmos and developing new Cosmos before having new Taxis. Based on Hayek's typology, the clashes between these two intertwined conditions for a balanced development, as seen at various angles of observation, are indicated in Table 1. The right-hand side of the table is the man-contrived contribution to otherwise spontaneous social order. Taxis is a result of social negotiations and administrative enforcement by orders of agents with a power in the hierarchies of governance. According to Hayek, development is an evolutionary process, which stems out from interactions at the micro-level of its agents, i.e. at the socio-economic grass roots of Cosmos. Thus it is the left column of Table 1, which should determine the induced adjustments in the right column. Communism was an abuse of Taxis in an attempt to reverse the order of causal relationships. The main objective of such social engineering was to redistribute the wealth and the endowments of factors. Table 1: The typology of various aspects of „social order“ and their potentially contradicting duality TAXIS: Social order endogenously given as man-contrived Regulation of social and economic activities Politics Organisation of enterprises Ownership and redistribution of wealth Hierarchies of governance Institutions of power and bureaucracy over the reallocations of factors Formal rules, formal networks, laws and judiciary, political parties, enforced conventions. COSMOS: Social order exogenously given as spontaneous Personal liberty and entrepreneurial capacities Economy Technological progress Wealth and property rights Free markets and competition Endowments of production factors and their market allocation Informal rules, ethics, behavioural patterns, social interaction in personal networks. Since the power of incumbent hierarchies is underpinned by formal institutions and laws, adjustments of both hierarchies and Taxis to the developments in Cosmos are Origins of Entrepreneurship 20 Vladimír Benáček subject to inertia. Some observers speak in this context about path-dependency, embeddedness or hysteresis. We cannot say after 17 years of transition, even in the most successful transition countries of Central Europe, that all man-contrived features of the command economy have been eliminated. Their institutions have been only gradually catching up with the calls for changes. The political bargaining process was often very slow – i.e. the deficits in efficiency of political "markets" for institutional changes were evidently lagging behind the breakthroughs in economic market clearing and industrial structures. In the early stages of transition, let us say in the first five years, the taxis could not but move within the communist legislation, judiciary and formal networks. Privatisation had to be carried out in that opaque period and actually ignore the law. Such a situation offered an environment that facilitated the past elite transiting to new entrenchments of economic power. Privatisation became the main channel for a tradeoff between the old political and the new economic powers. In order to find workable analytical concepts, we will use two typologies of the evolution of the private sector: “privatisation from above” and “privatisation from below” 14. The former is based on turning existing state-owned enterprises into private hands, which crucially depends on the activity of the government and its subordinated institutions. The alternative ("from below") approach to the rise of the private sector leads to the establishment of authentic private sector by the creation of “de novo” private firms. In the strategy “from below” the activism comes from the grass roots of the economy, i.e. at the autonomous level of firms. There it is the entrepreneurial productive activity of their owners what matters. The difference between the two concepts rests in the difference between the de iure and the de facto meaning of “privatisation”. While the latter stresses the creation of new property, the latter is oriented to changes of existing assets. Their opposing relationships to the Hayekian notions of Cosmos and Taxis are crucial for their alternative functioning. In contrast to the development of private ownership by evolution in the traditional market economies, private ownership in the initial transition period could be easily established by a “privatisation shock” – i.e. by the privatisation from above. There, the initial selection of both the owners and the property privatised was subject to an “acquisition bias” that depended on how the selection techniques departed from the criteria of perfect market bidding that included free competition and access to information. For example, the administrative methods of privatization had the following structure in the case of Czechia (computed from the value of all productive assets held by the State in 1989) 15: a/ retail auctions (0.7%), public tenders (1.3%), voucher privatisation by individuals (12%), restitution (11%), transfers to cooperatives (8%); b/ voucher privatisation by investment funds (27%), transfer to municipalities (18%), direct sales to pre-determined buyers (4%), liquidation (2%), retained state ownership (16%). The bias to non-competitive transfers or to methods where insider position was strong, such as to privatization techniques concentrated in the group b/, was evident in other countries too, not only in Czechia (Benacek, 2001). Privatisation from above, 14 This typology was first applied by Gruszecki and Winiecki, 1991, and later used by Benacek, 2001 and Winiecki et al., 2004. 15 According to the data of the Czech Statistical Office, 1998, and the Czech National Property Fund, 1997. Origins of Entrepreneurship 21 Vladimír Benáček compatible with non-competitive transfers, is a one shot game subject to information asymmetry and no one could expect that its outcome would result in a sharp improvement of efficiency. For example, the objective of many new owners could be acquiring debts and practising asset stripping for mere private consumption. In consequence, intransparent methods of bureaucratic privatisation "from above" strengthened the pre-conditions for the rise of adverse selection among entrepreneurs, socio-economic institutions and policies. The economy of Czechia, similarly as in other transition countries, was split into two diverging parts: on one hand there were firms with unambiguous ownership structure and with owners acting as principals subject to hard budget constraint and clear accountability, which exited from transition as internationally competitive entities. On the other hand, there were firms with opaque ownership where agents could dominate the principals and shift entrepreneurial liabilities upon the society – on shareholders stripped of rights, employees, suppliers, banks, municipalities or state budgets. As argued by Pejovich, 1994, or Loužek, 2005, the main objective of privatisation should be seen in creating free markets for institutions, incentives supporting property rights and the selection of the most efficient agents. Unfortunately, the privatisation in Central and Eastern Europe often failed in succeeding even in that goal because the new entrepreneurial elite found itself in a situation where it was more advantageous to postpone enforcement of property rights and to continue with rentseeking strategies. As a result, the problems with governance and management in the state sector contaminated also the privatised enterprises. The governments, instead of standing by the policies defending market discipline (e.g. the hard budget constraint and debt reimbursement) and market sustainability (e.g. pro-investment climate, transparency of information and competition), over-protected old enterprises transferred high taxes on successful firms, arranged for investment barriers and engaged in anti-competitive practices. We can therefore show in Table 2 how the contradictions inherited from the communist order, as described in Table 1, transformed into a bias in policy-making in the early stages of transition. Table 2: The bias in policy-making when politics dominate over economics in the privatization stage of transition ECONOMICS Independent firms Private property Incentives /”carrots”/ Wealth creation Capital accumulation Market competition Profits and asset returns Free trade Hard budget Creditor-dominance Low transaction costs POLITICS State authority (Semi-)Public property Fiats /“sticks”/ Wealth redistribution Capital consumption Market regulation and bureaucracy High taxation and subsidies Restrained trade Soft budget Debtor-dominance High transaction costs Origins of Entrepreneurship 22 Vladimír Benáček As administration-driven privatisation “from above” could not succeed in creating effective final owners, a new round (or even several additional rounds) of re-privatisations had to follow. The structure of new “capitalists”, many of who came from former nomenklatura, was bound to be only transitory. There were too many agents who lacked incentives or capacities to help their principals in the accumulation of wealth. There were some principals who also lacked both and failed, but there were many others with good entrepreneurial potential who were not backed by institutions for the defence of their property rights. Granted the conditions that caused adverse selection of the new elite and the external shocks to their stability, the vested interests forced the new capitalist elite to collude with the state bureaucracy in order to retain their position and defend their objectives. Free markets and competition became the most effective (and therefore most feared) instruments for revealing the non-tenability of their status. Thus the policies as a spin-off of privatisation “from above” and its non-authentic entrepreneurs acquired a strong bias towards regulation, restrained trade and soft budget legislation. Once the early stages of transition were associated with the state-administered privatisation, bureaucratic policy-making, information asymmetry, adverse selection, moral hazard and institutions in conflict with free markets, the most important capital for becoming an entrepreneur was the social (network, relational) capital (Sik, 1993, Mateju, 1993). As further analysed by Bezemer, Dulleck, Frijters, 2003, the economic behaviour of entrepreneurs in transition cannot be explained without recourse to the concept of social capital. Thus we should distinguish between the human capital, as the capacity directly associated with market-related efficiency in decision-making, organisation and innovation, and the social capital, as the capacity associated with redistributional coalitions, bureaucracy and state capture that are negatively associated with the efficient functioning of markets. The social capital in the time of the fall of communism was highly concentrated in the communist nomenklatura network because hierarchies formed the core of both formal and informal channels of communist governance. The politicians of velvet revolutions, who relied on the invisible hands of free markets to administer the post-communist “governance clearing”, have not succeeded in dismantling the old social capital of communist insiders and in replacing it by a new network of outsiders. Therefore, it was obvious that nomenklatura could retain or even strengthen their initial advantage and use it in their favour in the first round of privatisation. As a paradox, it was most probably the most natural and rational approach to transition. Definitely it was not an ideal solution because it was rife with many blind alleys. Nevertheless, it was the least risky pragmatic approach, provided the mechanisms of spontaneous socio-economic ‘tâtonnement’ of reallocations were not institutionally blocked, thus leading to the fastest ways out of the myriad of micro-conflicts that would not have been otherwise solved. Origins of Entrepreneurship 23 Vladimír Benáček 5. ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE LATER STAGES OF TRANSITION We have mentioned in the previous chapters that the transition from communist socialism to capitalism was impeded by the inability to dismantle the previous institutional order in a sufficient speed 16, so that the spontaneous changes in the economy could not be supported by an equally progressing institutional setup. The clash of spontaneous development from “below” with its lagging institutional barriers was imminent. It took several years to undermine gradually the ensuing deadlock. Such situation strengthened the comparative advantages of nomenklatura for getting an easier access to the assets privatized by insider bureaucratic methods that deviated from the standards of competitive bidding under perfect information. As argued by Loužek, 2005, installing an ideal environment for transition was practically unachievable and both the governments and the economic agents must have accepted the solution of the second best. There were hardly any tractable institutional alternatives that would guarantee a Pareto-optimal improvement, as there were no alternatives without social clashes. The trade-offs between social peace and legal institutions supporting transparent and fairer access to property were evident. Practically in all transition countries the resolution of this crucial choice was straightforward 17: the preference was given to social peace and to an uncertain roundabout way of getting out of the emerging institutional tangle. It can be resembled to the "turnpike theorem" of the growth theory: instead of travelling between two points by the shortest (but dangerous and slow) road, a detour is made to a more distant trunk road where the interferences (like social conflicts) are less burdensome for the transition. The distribution of new ownership after the first wave of mass privatisation failed in satisfying the condition of finding the final and the most efficient owners. The obsession with privatisation resulting from the illusion of “windfall gains” led to a social myopia, which overlooked more productive alternatives of de novo enterprises, often representing a more creative entrepreneurial achievement. The crucial question of transition then remains: how the society is capable of launching processes after the initial “privatization shock” and resulting detours, which would bring gradually a convergence to 16 One of the reasons impeding the attainment of a speedy institutional transition concerned the limited capacities of the experienced lawmakers. The imposition of democracy was generally a process with a higher priority than the introduction of property rights and their enforcement. The argument was that it was simply politically unacceptable to postpone the buildup of democracy and throw the limited resources into the revamping of economic institutions. The prevalent cryptolibertarian approach to economic institutions even affirmed that liberalised markets were selfsustaining and self-enforcing, thus the economic freedom was guaranteed even without extensive legal framework. The idea that emerging rickety markets could fail and lead to adverse selection and suboptimal allocation of resources was taken for just a short-run transitory problem. True, in the long-run many of these issues were effectively eliminated because of the competition from abroad. However, approximately a half of the GDP is produced in internationally non-tradable sectors where domestic competition is often weak. There the hysteresis of previous institutional vacuum left its traces that for long will make transition countries different from advanced capitalist countries without that historical taint. 17 The only country where they a different strategy was Eastern Germany. The take-over of West German institutions, including their human capital, was a highly enticing idea. Unfortunatly, an important part of indigenous social interaction was thus skipped, which paradoxically slowed down the speed of transition. Origins of Entrepreneurship 24 Vladimír Benáček an optimal equilibrium in the ownership structure (Pejovich, 2004). It should be stressed that, once detours began to dominate the strategy of transition and the delays in installing institutions supporting entrepreneurship and wealth creation became socially accepted, their postponed instalment cannot be left to anarchy. Otherwise the institutions are privatised and installed by the dominant agents – oligarchic or mafian networks. The initial crony capitalism could easily turn into the capitalism of gangsters. The problem is not whether the government has declared new capitalist institutions, but whether the State is able their enforcement. The State must remain strong, what does not mean that it must rely exclusively on its central punitive authority. Microeconomic agents must be constantly disciplined by keeping them under competition and a threat of countervailing coalitions among them. I.e. the bulk of disciplining must be shifted on them, instead on relying on dysfunctional institutions. What kind of conditions and processes were available that would bring about the task of convergence to a viable alternative? There are five such self-disciplining factors: • Building competition by liberalising the markets internally and externally; • Opening the market contestability to an easy start-up of the de-novo sector; • Lowering the transaction costs of running businesses by having a very simply tax, wage and social security schemes; • Rising hard budget constraints by minimising the government expenditures to enterprises; • Privatising the banking sector to renowned international owners for who the defaulting and corruption are viable ways of enrichment. This is the reduced institutional regime that is depicted in Figure 1 for the period of 1990-97. However, from the very start of transition the preparation for a pending institutional storm must be in progress. The process of legislative changes was found to be the slowest and the most resistant to progress among all reform agenda practically in all transition countries. In this respect the EU accession process played a highly positive role because it forced the accession countries to introduce some of the highly liberal parts of acquis communautaire, for example the competition, contestability and free trade policies and the Copenhagen criteria of competitiveness. The judiciary and the law enforcement were the critical bottlenecks, even though the demand for them was sharply increasing in the later stages of transition. After 16 years of transition there is still much to be improved, especially if the whips and carrots of the European Commission faded away after the EU accession. The rise of the de novo sector had two main channels: foreign and domestic. The penetration of foreign direct investors was not uniform in all countries. However, as the countries lagging behind recognised the advantages of FDI, their willingness to adjust laws and institutions to become more market-compatible was increasing. The development of indigenous entrepreneurship, concentrated mainly in the small and medium-sized enterprises, was as important as the foreign one (Benacek, 2001). In many transition countries the efficiency of this sector was even higher than the efficiency of the former large state-owned enterprises privatised by vouchers or employee or managerial buy-outs. Small and medium-sized enterprises and the FDI firms were also the creators of new jobs, which raised their moral standing in the society. The opening to spontaneous competition countervailed effectively the holes in legislation in the tradable sectors. On the other hand, the lack of competition in the nontradable sectors (e.g. in state monopolies such as energy, transport, public utilities, Origins of Entrepreneurship 25 Vladimír Benáček healthcare, education, police and defence) caused that failing entrepreneurs reallocated their activities there. There they could use again their fading social capital and form redistributive coalitions with the profit sector. They became pseudo-entrepreneurs who instead of using their own financial capital could run a business of their own based on public assets. The tendency to combine highly efficient forms entrepreneurship with parasitic state capture is a risk that is immanent in many transition countries. At the end, the roundabout anarchic transitions turned nearly everywhere to a surprising (though still only partial) success. The resolution of conflicts by the socioeconomic ‘tâtonnement’ and Coasian re-negotiations was successful but only there where their transaction costs were low or offered a terminal algorithm. The institutional build-up in later stages of transition could be highly instrumental in that. The lowering of risks, uncertainties and the higher transparency of accounting, loans and debt disbursement allowed an easier cost-benefit analysis, which speeded up the transfer of property to more efficient owners. The wave of bankruptcies and the diminishing availability of assets for predatory stripping diminished the strength of vested interests lobbying previously for incentives and institutions that were not market-compatible. Time was gradually moving the pendulum towards reforms favouring the economics column of Table 2. Given the development of the environment that followed the market requirements, the Central European and the Baltic countries have turned gradually from laggards in growth into Europe’s most dynamic economies. Their catching-up with the level of less wealthy countries of the EU-15 is undisputable. Countries like Estonia or Slovakia became leaders in reforms between the EU-27 and the liberalisation of their economies brought spillovers of reforms in other countries in Europe. Even though there have remained in transition countries still too many impediments to free markets in order to call them "functioning market economies", the indices of economic freedom have been improving recently and the entrepreneurship based on extra-market transactions and information asymmetry was sharply reduced. The role of the nomenklatura among entrepreneurs has been steadily declining since the end of the first wave of privatisation in transition countries. The subsequent waves of secondary re-privatisations and bankruptcies favoured the young elite without any links to former communist networks (Machonin et al., 2006). The importance of indigenous social (relational) capital in entrepreneurship engaged in competitive and contestable sectors has been losing ground by being crowded out by the human capital and the networks of international capital (Tuček, 2006). The downfall of important part of the economic old-new elite was again an evolutionary and not a violent process forced from above. The analyses of Laki and Szalai, 2006, reached a similar conclusion, noting that the stabilisation of indigenous grand entrepreneurs in Hungary in the late 1990s was reason to set aside initially high concerns that the transition in post-communist countries may have undermined national integrity by depriving them of the national elite and the ability to compete internationally. The majority of indigenous grand entrepreneurs of 2005 typically started out as small businesses and a record of productive capital build-up. Inefficiency measured by loss making dropped substantially from the privatised enterprise sector. At present the main burden of dead-weight losses in GDP is concentrated in the expenditure side of the state budgets, which still amount around 45% of the GDP. Their inefficient allocation to insufficiently restructured public services (defence, police, education, health care and public administration), whose functioning is in Origins of Entrepreneurship 26 Vladimír Benáček conflict with the market competition, is a burden that constrains directly the growth in approximately a quarter of the economy 18. It is on the expenditure side of state finance where introducing entrepreneurial techniques of management could bring most radical gains in its efficiency. The spinoffs of such an entrepreneurial revolution could be even more important by curbing the negative externalities of bureaucracy, corruption and excessive taxation on the private sector. Inefficient the public administration, as the legacy of the communist past, is a problem that impedes the spontaneous entrepreneurship in all transition countries. Over-regulation by acquis communautaire combined with the local folklore of State bureaucracy, its corruption, rent-seeking and politics responding to demands for State populism and redistributional policies present the most serious impediment to the rising entrepreneurship in transition countries. We can conclude by pointing to the recent empirical evidence about growth. According to growth statistics, the advances in the healthy market-based sectors of the post-transition economies more than compensated for the under-performing sectors, the majority of which are under the protection of insufficiently restructured public finance. What matters is the trend in reforms supporting entrepreneurship. As discussed above, the speed of such reforms has been converging to the low levels of the EU-15. Also many new reforms are building barriers to entrepreneurship. Instead of speaking about the merits of recent high growth in post-transition countries, we should rather raise a question: why is their average growth rate mere 5% and why is it not higher? The burden of responsibility rests in the hands of the politicians, perhaps even more now than anytime before during transition. But is it the fat carps themselves who will be willing to drain their muddy pond? 18 There should be considered an even more sophisticated explanation of the inefficiency in the public sector: as the accounting for the value of government expenditure is based on the artificial cost mark-up given to the quantity of „services“ rendered, the official contribution of this sector to growth can be quite high. 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